Bundesliga match day 17, Wednesday, 15/01/2025 at 6:30 pm
More relegation fight is not possible. If the Revier kickers lose this game too, then it will be damn hard! VfL is stuck in the basement of the table just after New Year and has a crucial game against St. Pauli coming up.
While Hamburg currently have to compensate for many injuries and absences, VfL is fighting for every point to avoid slipping even further down the table.
The Kiezkicker are notorious throughout the league for their defensively stable performances. And it is precisely this aspect that could have a decisive impact on the course of today’s game.
In my Bochum St. Pauli tip for the basement battle on Matchday 17, I therefore expect a scrappy match in which a lot will be decided by sheer fighting spirit.
Incidentally, the clash between VfL and FC St. Pauli is the first in the Bundesliga since May 1997. Back then, the Ruhrpott club triumphed with an impressive 6-0 victory.
In recent years, however, the two teams have mainly faced each other in the 2nd division, where Bochum have also usually come out on top.
From 2019 to 2021, the last five competitive matches between the two ended in three draws and two wins for Bochum. A clear statistical advantage for the hosts.
However, I can’t quite bring myself to predict a home win for the blue and whites in my Bochum St. Pauli tip, even if several key players will be missing on the opposite side.
The Bochum St. Pauli odds, which have also recently been published in the handy Merkur Bets app, show that this and other bookmakers consider this basement duel to be fairly even.
With odds of 2.60 on average for a win by the Kiezkicker and 2.85 for a home win by the blue-and-whites, it is hard to identify the favorites.
Meanwhile, the draw is valued at odds of around 3.20, which indicates that a draw is also quite likely.
In this respect, both teams are on a par, and the betting providers expect – as do I, by the way – an exciting and hard-fought match to the finish!
KI prediction Bochum vs St. Pauli: ChatGPT suggests the following
The three Bochum St. Pauli AI tips suggested by ChatGPT for this match are aimed at sports betting fans with different preferences.
A high risk is taken, for example, with the “1:1 result bet”, which is also my preferred tip for a thrilling result bet due to the perceived equality of the two teams.
Actually, however, I would rate the Kiezkicker as stronger if it were not for the many absences that the medical department of the northerners have reported for Wednesday.
The second tip calls for a moderately risky tip on “Over 2.5 goals”. However, since both teams demonstrably cannot develop the greatest offensive power, I would strongly advise against it.
ChatGPT’s supposedly safe risk tip that both teams will score is ultimately not really attractive either due to the low odds.
Especially since the already discussed 1-1 draw is the only realistic result I can think of that fulfills this condition.
Analysis: Bochum vs St. Pauli
Bochum remain at the bottom of the Bundesliga table after a 2-0 defeat against Mainz, which means their fourth defeat in their last six games. In all four defeats, they did not score a single goal.
However, VfL can at least point to the fact that, as mentioned at the beginning of my Bochum St. Pauli prediction, they have not lost to the Kiezkicker in their last five direct duels.
For neutral spectators hoping for entertainment, however, this game could be disappointing, as none of Bochum’s last seven matches have seen more than 2.5 goals.
But don’t worry, I’ll be going into this aspect, which is relevant for betting, in more detail in a moment!
St. Pauli, on the other hand, are just one point above the relegation places with an eight-point lead over their upcoming opponents and also have their own concerns.
However, they are encouraged by the fact that nine of their 14 points this season have been scored away from home, most recently an important 1-0 win in Stuttgart.
In most of their games, the first goal led to the respective team’s victory! And should the Kiezkicker actually score the 1-0 on Wednesday, I can well imagine that given their strong defensive work, VfL would not be able to turn that around.
Odds Analysis
The 1-1 result bet at odds of 6.25, suggested and already discussed by ChatGPT as part of his very own Bochum St. Pauli AI prediction, seems extremely attractive to me.
A goalless draw after 90 minutes could really be the most likely outcome here, and this odds offer a lot of value at the same time.
I also really like the draw-no-bet option at around 1.95 at LeoVegas.
Particularly in close duels like this one, in which the teams appear relatively evenly matched, it seems safer to bet on the draw and at the same time secure the option of not being left without a win if the Kiezkicker win.
Incidentally, you can kill two birds with one stone by taking advantage of the magnificent LeoVegas bonus from the same provider.
Bochum vs. St. Pauli Odds: Many goals? Negative report!
The idea of expecting more than 2.5 goals in this game seems questionable given the current form of both teams.
Bochum will probably do everything they can to avoid leaving the pitch as losers again, which should encourage them to take a rather cautious approach.
The numbers also speak for themselves: with 12 goals, FC St. Pauli has the weakest offense in the league, and Bochum is only slightly better with 13 goals.
Both teams are struggling to score goals – Bochum have not scored in seven games and St. Pauli have not scored in nine games this season. Given these statistics, it is therefore very unlikely that the game will see more than two goals.
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Bochum vs. St. Pauli odds: Lots of goals? No way!
The idea of expecting more than 2.5 goals in this game seems questionable given the current form of both teams.
Bochum will probably do everything they can to avoid leaving the pitch as losers again, which should encourage them to take a rather cautious approach.
The numbers also paint a clear picture: with 12 goals, FC St. Pauli has the weakest offense in the league, and Bochum is only slightly better with 13 goals.
Both teams are struggling to score goals – Bochum have not scored in seven games and St. Pauli have not scored in nine games this season. Given these statistics, it is therefore very unlikely that the game will see more than two goals.
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Bochum could find it particularly difficult to get into the game against St. Pauli’s well-organized defense.
Be warned: FC St. Pauli has conceded only 20 goals, the second-best defensive record in the league, only Bayern Munich has conceded fewer goals so far (13).
Bochum, on the other hand, has conceded 37 goals, almost twice as many as the Kiezklub.
These statistics clearly show that Bochum faces a real challenge in scoring against this defense.
In addition, Bochum must improve in this game, especially in the duels, because they are one of the weakest clubs in the league in this regard. And since the team lacks finesse in terms of play, VfL will have to rely on sheer willpower to win.
However, with only 47% of duels won, the Ruhr Valley club is in second-to-last place in the league, which could be disastrous for the upcoming game against the defensively strong St. Pauli.
The team from the neighborhood has a better overall record in duels than the hosts.
So if it comes to a real fight for the three points on Wednesday – which I firmly assume – then the neighborhood kickers should retain the upper hand thanks to their more pronounced fighting spirit.
My Bochum St. Pauli Tip:
It will be a hard-fought game, where the focus will be on the tackle, both on the ground and in the air!
Bochum will start the game unsettled and cautiously, so I can hardly imagine long passes deep in the opponent’s third.
So expect a tough game with many interruptions and two teams that won’t venture too far forward.
My prediction: Under 2.5 goals.
