Bundesliga matchday 26, Saturday, 15.03.2025 at 15:30
Julian Schuster took on possibly the most difficult legacy in German professional soccer before this season, taking over the role from Christian Streich at SC Freiburg.
Difficulties were expected and there was talk of a transitional season in many pubs. However, things have turned out completely differently and after 25 match days, the Breisgauers have almost as many points in their account (41) as after the entire last season under Streich (42).
This fabulous season for the visitors has only been topped by one team – FSV Mainz 05, who are third in the table and Bo Henriksen’s side are enjoying their best season in the club’s history. The players are not the only ones dreaming of the top flight.
The success of these two surprise teams is based on a tremendous work ethic in defense. Freiburg did not manage more than two harmless offensive performances recently, but drew with both FC Augsburg (0:0) and RB Leipzig (0:0).
The Black Forest outfit have now gone six Bundesliga matches without conceding a goal – a new club record. Mainz are in similar territory and have not conceded a goal in four Bundesliga home games.
For my Mainz Freiburg betting tip, I choose odds of 2.45 and play “Freiburg under 0.5 goals” at Betano.
The oddsmakers’ forecast?
Few Bundesliga teams are currently looking forward to a trip to the Mewa Arena. FSV have been unbeaten in eight (!) Bundesliga home games and are pretty much the most unpleasant opponent imaginable in their own stadium.
Of course, series of this magnitude do not go unnoticed by the wide-awake betting operators. The consequences are clear to see in the odds comparison.
Although the third-placed team in the table has been waiting for a win against Freiburg for seven Bundesliga matches, a three-pointer for FSV is more realistic (odds of around 2.00) than an away win for Breisgau (odds of up to 4.00).
AI prediction Mainz vs Freiburg: ChatGPT
The AI predictions sometimes drove me crazy. Some of ChatGPT’s recommendations are completely contrary to my Mainz Freiburg tip. At least I can still get something out of the basic bet on “Mainz to score the first goal” with odds of 1.70 at Tipwin.
I find the approach of the artificial intelligence more difficult with the second suggestion for this pairing. According to the AI forecast, “over 2.5 goals” should only correspond to a medium risk. However, five of SCF’s six previous Bundesliga matches offered a maximum of two goals. For odds of 2.14, nobody can convince me to bet on “Over 2.5 goals” at NEO.bet.
If Mainz win a match in which both teams score at least one goal, you have the chance to win 4.25 times at Betano. However, I would rather bet on “Mainz wins without conceding a goal” than on this variant. Why my thoughts go in this direction will certainly become clearer in the following lines.
Analysis: Mainz vs Freiburg
Mainz is giving soccer fans beyond their own region a treat this season. The 05ers have recently organized four Bundesliga wins in a row and stormed to third place in the table thanks to this series.
Once there, the players naturally want nothing more than to take advantage of this unique opportunity for their careers and the club. Leading players such as Dominik Kohr and Nadiem Amiri are no longer mincing their words about their European Cup ambitions.
Why should they? Mainz are the second-best team in the second half of the season (16 points from 8 games) and are brimming with confidence. Apart from Leverkusen (5.4) and Bayern (5.2), no other Bundesliga team conquers more balls in the attacking third per matchday than the 05ers (4.4).
With this type of offensive defense, many teams have problems finding their way into their build-up play. Freiburg have recently lacked the means in attack. Between them, the Breisgau side have scored less than one expected goal in their last two Bundesliga appearances (via Wyscout).
Rating Analysis
The recent history of this pairing may speak against FSV, but the current momentum weighs much more heavily in my eyes. With a freebet, betting fans can also prove their courage and play odds of 2.00 for a “Mainz win”.
The odds of 1.87 at Bet365 for “Under 2.5 goals” are also attractive. With the second-best defense in the Bundesliga (26 goals conceded), Mainz almost single-handedly argues for investing the Bet365 betting bonus.
Freiburg, however, are also willing to extend their current club record of six white vests in a row. I haven’t even ruled out a 0-0 draw as the final result. It would be SCF’s third clean sheet in a row.
Mainz vs. Freiburg: Let it rip
After 25 completed matchdays, the 05 team’s officials were looking at 16 points – the weakest haul in the club’s history. Bo Henriksen was brought in, with whom they managed to stay in the league.
One year later, also after 25 games in the German top flight, FSV have 44 points. That is also a historic figure – the home side had never been in a better position in the Bundesliga at that time.
Henriksen has achieved this with an appealing combination of offensive mindset, high emotionality and passionate work on the pitch.
The Dane courageously has his team defending forward every weekend and sees the third most ball wins in the attacking third per matchday among all first division teams (4.4).
According to Wyscout, Mainz only allow 10.43 passes per defensive action (4th). The build-up play is made difficult or even impossible for opposing teams with the high run-up behavior, especially at home in the Mewa Arena.
Mainz have the best home defense of all Bundesliga teams (10 goals conceded) and, after Bayern (8.67 xGA), the best expected defense in their own stadium (12.16 xGA).
Different prices
Mainz pay a lower price for a clean sheet than Freiburg, at least in terms of their own attacking play. In the case of the Breisgauers, minimalist soccer has recently been proclaimed.
Five of the six previous Bundesliga encounters between the Schuster team saw a maximum of one goal! Freiburg themselves failed to score in two consecutive matches and scored a maximum of 0.50 xG in those two appearances.
Away from home, the requirements for keeping a clean sheet – and their own offense – are increasing. Freiburg failed to score in 38 per cent of their Bundesliga appearances away from home and scored just ten of their 34 goals away from home.
No other Bundesliga team has scored away from home less often than SCF (10). In the Mainz Freiburg betting tip, we are therefore looking at the duel between the best home defense and the weakest away offense.
In addition, Mainz have so far finished 42 percent of their home games without conceding a goal – most recently FSV even prevented a goal in four consecutive home games. With this Interwetten free bet, odds of 3.15 for “Mainz to win without conceding a goal” is a sensible betting option.
My Mainz Freiburg tip:
Alongside FC Augsburg, Mainz and Freiburg are the only two teams in the German top flight to concede just 0.10 expected goals per opponent’s goal.
Among all Bundesliga goalkeepers, you won’t find a keeper with a better rate of clearances than Robin Zentner. The FSV back is at 75 percent, just above Moritz Nicolas (73.3 percent) and Noah Atubolu (72.1 percent).
My Mainz Freiburg betting tip is therefore: Freiburg will NOT score a goal!
