Serie A, Sunday, 11.05.2025 at 20:45
Three match days to go in the Italian Serie A, it remains a two-way battle for the title! Napoli go into the final three points ahead of Inter Milan, so it’s clear that the upcoming home game against a mixed opponent cannot be messed up.
Consequently, in my Napoli Genoa betting tip, I am also of the opinion that we will have to deal with a home win. Since the leaders are not known for their spectacular soccer, I say: If the home side win, we will see a maximum of three goals.
First the points tally, then the direct comparison, and finally the goal difference – and the fronts are clear. Napoli are three points ahead of Inter Milan. Since both duels ended with a 1:1, it’s all about the goal difference.
The Himmelblauen know this: We are ten goals behind, so we can’t hope for a tie under any circumstances. Napoli still face Genoa, Parma and Cagliari in the season finale.
None of these teams are currently better placed than 13th (before the start of the 36th matchday), but a difficult remaining program looks different. With 55 goals, the league leaders are by no means known as an offensive powerhouse.
The 25 goals conceded, however, represent the top defensive figure. Fittingly, they have only managed to score more than two goals once since mid-January. Of course, this has also been registered in terms of betting:
If you want to bet on Napoli scoring more than 1.5 goals on Sunday, you get odds of 1.60 at Bwin. A “Under 2.5 goals”, on the other hand, is not worthwhile at 1.40.
If you are at Bwin, you should not miss out on the voucher, as you can double your deposit. Napoli have not conceded a goal in four games, which is definitely good news – and have picked up twelve points in the process.
The team has only conceded more than one goal once at home. Eight times they have kept a clean sheet. Is it worth betting that the Himmelblauen will also play to nil on Sunday?
Odds of 1.55 would be due at Bwin if you bet on Genoa not scoring. Regardless of the venue, the Sky Blues have won 15 games to nil – in terms of odds, we would be at 1.78.
2:1, 1:1, 2:2? The last three duels against Genoa were all but quickly decided. Nevertheless, one defeat since January 2012, which is of course something to be proud of. The last time Napoli lost a home game against Genoa was in February 2009.
Only two goals have been conceded in the last seven home games. I will of course also take a look at our bookmakers with Apple Pay to see: 1.30 to 11.0, as expected, Napoli are clearly ahead in terms of victory.
For Genoa it is something like the game for the golden pineapple, because the team has nothing more to do with relegation. The Rossoblu stand out with twelve draws and a very weak attack with 30 goals.
Genoa are currently on a run of three defeats in a row, the most they have lost without interruption this season. The team has gone goalless 13 times and scored at least one brace eight times.
Two goals from the last six games? That’s a pretty thin figure offensively. Eleven away goals? Nobody can beat that! Once in the last five matches. Another interesting fact: the Rossoblu scored seven times in the first half and 23 times after the break.
Away wins? Not at all this year. It’s also interesting to look at the results against the top teams, is Genoa perhaps a scare for the favorites and we don’t even know it at first glance?
The 2:2 and 0:1 against Inter didn’t look so bad, but it was a different story against Atalanta in the 1:5. 0:1 and 0:3? They didn’t get anything worthwhile against Juve and scored just one point in their four matches against the clubs from Rome.
No, Genoa are definitely not the favorites. What’s more, three important players – Caleb Ekuban, Jean Onana and Fabio Miretti – are injured.
In Naples, they hope and fear with their team – the 2025 title is absolutely realistic. If the Himmelblaue simply win their last three games, no matter how close, nothing can happen to them.
Few goals conceded, as many goals as necessary up front – this is the credo with which they are marching through this season. Their opponents from Genoa are very harmless on the offensive, especially away from home, and the Rossoblu have nothing left to play for.
Accordingly, I believe that the favorites will prevail in the end. Since scoring goals at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona is very rare, my overall tip is:
Napoli win by a maximum of three goals
