Cologne – Freiburg Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 2 on Sunday, 08/31/2025 at 7:00 p.m.
On Matchday 2 of the Bundesliga, 1. FC Cologne and SC Freiburg will face off in what promises to be a very exciting match. Can Cologne continue their current winning streak, or will the newly promoted team have to concede defeat to the Breisgauers?
In my Cologne Freiburg tip, the direct comparison against Effzeh is not the only factor. Since Freiburg has won three of its last four encounters, I am also considering a Freiburg victory on Sunday at odds of approximately 2.75 at Interwetten.
My Cologne Freiburg prediction: Freiburg victory
These are the arguments for my prediction:
- Freiburg will be motivated after their opening defeat against Augsburg.
- SC Freiburg has earned 10 out of a possible 12 points in their last four Bundesliga matches against Cologne.
- 1. FC Cologne could be prone to complacency after their recent successes.
In general, I don’t trust Cologne yet. Yes, the cathedral city’s team is in a stable phase and hasn’t lost a game since April. However, the lucky opening victory against Mainz didn’t really convince me in the end.
Accordingly, my first betting alternative is not in favor of Cologne. Rather, I see the “double chance X2” at odds of around 1.50 as a safety-first approach. I simply don’t expect a home win.
Cologne – Freiburg Prediction & Bets
Freiburg should not be underestimated this season either. After finishing 5th last season, the Breisgauers want to get involved in the battle for the European Cup again this season. A win against a promoted team would come as no surprise.
Considering that Cologne and SCF only scored once each on the first matchday, the “under 2.5 goals” bet also comes into play. The odds at Bet365 Germany are 1.85, which offers sufficient value.
Also worth a look: “Draw at half-time.” I generally expect a close match, with SCF narrowly winning in the end. A 0-0 or 1-1 score at half-time fits well with odds of around 2.00.
What you need to know about betting on Cologne vs. Freiburg
- Cologne is unbeaten in ten games, including friendlies. Their last home defeat dates back to April 5 in the 2nd Bundesliga: a 0-1 loss to Hertha BSC.
- On the first matchday of the new season, Freiburg had an xG value of 3.04. That was the biggest discrepancy between expected and actual goals scored on the Bundesliga opening weekend.
- In the 2024/25 season, Freiburg was the second most profitable team in the over 2.5 goals market: 23 of their 34 games ended with at least three goals, yielding a return of 13.5%.
- The last meeting in May 2024 ended 0-0. In total, only eight goals were scored in the last six encounters, with only one of those games seeing both teams score.
- Jakub Kamiński has already created four chances for Cologne after the first game. In the 2024/25 season, the Polish midfielder created 24 chances for Wolfsburg, placing him among the top 15% of all players in this category.
Cologne – Freiburg: AI tip & odds analysis
As always, we turn to our AI assistant for help. The corresponding Cologne Freiburg AI prediction provides further betting alternatives.
First, the AI suggests the classic “both teams to score” bet. The odds are 1.70, which is slightly above average. A hint: the bet would have been successful in three of Freiburg’s last four games.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Cologne win |
Draw |
Freiburg win |
| 32% |
22% |
46% |
Another interesting result tip is a 2-1 win for Freiburg. The high risk is rewarded with odds of around 10.5. However, it should be noted that Freiburg’s last victories against Cologne were all achieved without conceding a goal.
The third AI tip predicts a “Freiburg win (DNB)”. This means that you will get your stake back in the event of a draw. The odds of 2.00 at VBET Sportsbook are strong and, in my opinion, dripping with value.
The best odds for Cologne vs. Freiburg
Our in-house data model predicts a total xG of 2.74 goals for the game. These expected goals are distributed across 1.23 xG for 1. FC Cologne and 1.51 xG for Freiburg. Despite this slight preference for the away team, bookmakers see Cologne as narrow favorites with odds of around 2.55.
This means that Freiburg goes into the game as the underdog on the 0.0 Asian handicap line. This betting option effectively works like a “draw no bet” bet: if the game ends in a draw, bettors will get their stake back in full.
According to the AI model, the probability of Freiburg successfully covering this handicap is 58.5%. Freiburg 0.0 is one of the five most promising Asian handicap tips on the second matchday of the Bundesliga.
The Asian Goal Line is set at over/under 2.5 goals. In the previous Bundesliga season, Freiburg was the second most profitable team in the over 2.5 goals market, with a return on investment (ROI) of +13.5% – with 23 of 34 games having three or more goals.
However, Freiburg was not nearly as prolific away from home as it was at home. While it ranked first in the over 2.5 ranking in home games (14 of 19 home games with over 2.5 goals), the ROI away from home was significantly weaker at -11.1% – a clear contrast to its strong home record.
Cologne vs Freiburg match analysis:
Cologne has set itself the clear goal of staying in the Bundesliga. Home strength will be a decisive factor for success – but right from the start, they face a real test with their first league game at the RheinEnergieStadion.
In the 2023/24 season – Cologne’s last season in the Bundesliga – the team scored the fewest goals of any team, averaging just 0.82 per game.
And although they finished last season as leaders of the 2. Bundesliga, Lukas Kwasniok’s team scored 25 fewer goals than second-placed HSV. Back in the top flight of German soccer, Cologne now needs to improve significantly in attack.
Creativity was not a problem in the last game against Mainz, however: Cologne had an xG value of 1.36. However, 1.09 of that came in the second half – i.e., when the opponent was down to ten men.
Against a stronger opponent, the team will probably have to create more danger. Freiburg started the season with a defeat, but showed a lot of attacking intent. In an intense game against Augsburg, there were a total of 16 shots on goal.
Coach Schuster’s team created three so-called “big chances.” If they can do that again, we can expect to see more goals this time around.
Cologne form check
Cologne’s return to the Bundesliga under new coach Lukas Kwasniok got off to a dream start: a header from Marius Bülter in the 90th minute secured a 1-0 win over Mainz.
The win at the MEWA Arena marked a strong comeback for the “Geißböcke,” who benefited from Paul Nebel’s red card and secured three important points.
Despite facing an opponent that had been unbeaten in 13 home games, Cologne showed determination from the start. The first half remained goalless, but after the break, Kwasniok’s team significantly increased the pressure.
A penalty not given for Mainz and a missed chance by Jan Thielmann quickly faded into the background – the game-deciding red card and Bülter’s late goal determined the outcome.
Goalkeeper Marvin Schwäbe played a decisive role and was voted player of the match thanks to his strong saves.
Freiburg form check
Freiburg’s European Cup hopes suffered an early setback: they lost 3-1 at home to Augsburg in their Bundesliga opener.
Despite a promising start and numerous chances, Julian Schuster’s men were left frustrated by missed opportunities – the expected goals ratio was 3.04 to 1.22 in Freiburg’s favor.
Augsburg, on the other hand, were clinical and effective under new head coach Sandro Wagner: the visitors scored three times in a dominant first half – Dimitrios Giannoulis, Chrislain Matsima, and Marius Wolf were the goalscorers.
Freiburg started strongly, and Lucas Höler thought his team had taken an early lead, but VAR ruled out the goal for offside. Freiburg put in a committed performance in the second half, and Vincenzo Grifo reduced the deficit from the penalty spot. But despite their best efforts, they couldn’t find a way past Augsburg’s resolute defense.
Freiburg narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification last season but will compete in the Europa League. With an experienced squad, hopes remain high for greater success this season, even after the departure of key player Ritsu Dōan.
