BVB – Augsburg betting tip
It’s a very strange situation that Borussia Dortmund are in right now: They no longer have to qualify for the Champions League via the Bundesliga in fourth place, but know that fifth place will do this year!
However, as BVB is still very much in the thick of things in the top flight this season and will be fighting for a place in the grand final in a few days’ time, the question is rightly being asked: if the minimum target for the season has already been achieved, how are the players supposed to find the national motivation?
Of course, the Black & Yellows do not want to distort the competition. On Saturday afternoon, they face FC Augsburg at home, one of their absolute favorite opponents. Even if they already have PSG in the back of their minds?
The Bavarian Swabians want to take advantage of the fact that Borussia have to travel to Paris a few days later. They will therefore be delighted that, with odds of 3.95 to 1.80, they are considered underdogs but not without a chance.
In my Dortmund Augsburg betting tip, I will now try to answer all the difficult questions posed by both teams. After much deliberation, I recommend the following tip, also based on the history: BVB score, but both score!
The prediction of the bookmakers?
Dortmund have not lost 23 of 26 games against Augsburg – and yet our sports betting apps show odds of 1.85 to win! This can really only have to do with the fact that, from a purely sporting point of view, there is nothing left at stake for BVB in the Bundesliga.
On the other hand, FCA have only won once on Dortmund soil, but they also know that their opponents have the semi-finals of the CL ahead of them. In this respect, you can see that the visitors have a very low average score of 3.95.
Augsburg would definitely take a draw, after all there was also a 1:1 in the first half of the season. Should both teams share the points this time, the bookies would give odds of 4.30.
Analysis: Dortmund vs Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund puzzled: Not in the top four in the Bundesliga, but on the verge of reaching the Champions League final? You can’t explain that to everyone!
A few days ago, Borussia Dortmund deservedly beat Paris St. Germain 1:0 in the first leg of the semi-final. Of course, that’s not half the battle, but the team will travel to the French capital next week with a good starting position.
The best thing about it is that it doesn’t matter how the last three games in the Bundesliga turn out. The strong results of the German teams in Europe 2023/24 ensure that even fifth place will be enough to compete in the top flight next season
Since Dortmund were beaten 4-1 in Leipzig just last weekend and the gap to fourth place has now widened to five points, this information is worth its weight in gold.
BVB have therefore achieved their minimum goal for the season, so it doesn’t matter what place they end up in. But now it’s all about not going three wins in a row for the first time since December
Quota analysis
In terms of the 1×2 bets, I think Dortmund will take the game seriously. Since the visitors are not particularly strong away from home anyway, I would go for a home win here despite the Champions League.
Goals are almost never in short supply for Augsburg, also because the defense allows a lot. Since they always score against BVB and the home side could be a little less concentrated this time, I can well imagine an “Over 3.5 goals”.
Guessing the right result? The supreme discipline! After much deliberation and taking all other tips into account, I would go for 3:1 here, with Bet365 rewarding this result with odds of 12.0.
Will Dortmund concede the game?
Admittedly, the last two opponents were really strong with Leverkusen and RB Leipzig. Leverkusen, Stuttgart, Leipzig and Bayern? The Black & Yellows only won one of these eight top matches.
So direct competition is not welcome, but fortunately FC Augsburg is not one of them. Nevertheless, I have to say: They have already lost four times at home this season, which is unusual for Dortmund, who are usually so strong at home.
27 points from 15 home games, the lowest tally since 2014/15. It is also striking that they have already scored 21 times in their own box. A good keyword to get to the direct comparison against FC Augsburg
Augsburg want to keep up
The fact that only three of the 26 duels have been lost speaks for itself. BVB certainly have a hard time in Augsburg, but hardly anything burns at home. Three draws and one defeat, otherwise only wins!
At the same time, however, I warn the defense, because: Apart from the 4:0, which came in the very first duel in October 2011, there have always been goals conceded against Augsburg in their own stadium!
So it’s no surprise that the “Both teams to score” bet at Admiralbet only has odds of 1.36.
Of course, FC Augsburg know what task they face on Saturday. Dortmund are a fearful opponent away from home, but the Bavarian Swabians will be looking to take advantage of the fact that BVB will soon be facing Paris.
The Fuggerstädter have only won one of their last five games, and yet they are only one point behind seventh place! Not unimportant, as qualification for Europe could still be possible.
But now the big but: The remaining program includes Dortmund, Stuttgart and Leverkusen as opponents! So it would have to be the devil’s own doing if they were to actually make it into international business
Augsburg have not beaten a team from the current top 5 this season, which is not exactly encouraging. Wolfsburg, Darmstadt, Gladbach and Heidenheim? These four teams have won away from home.
There’s no question that Dortmund are in a different category. What’s more, the defensive problems are not really improving. Three clean sheets in the entire season, only away at relegated Darmstadt, that’s not enough.
Nevertheless, there are a few positive facts about FCA. For example, the fact that 20 goals have already been scored from a resting ball and, fittingly, BVB concede 38% of their goals this way – as does Augsburg.
In addition, the Bavarian Swabians have already collected 23 points after falling behind, compared to 15 for BVB. The visitors also have a number of players to consider: Kristijan Jakic will miss the match due to a yellow card suspension
My BVB Augsburg tip:
It’s also difficult for us to predict how much momentum Borussia Dortmund will have going into the home game against Augsburg. I’ve found a number of facts that actually speak in favor of a win, but the Champions League is omnipresent.
I have therefore also decided to bet cautiously on the “double chance 1X”. However, since Augsburg always score in Dortmund, with one exception, I don’t see an overly clear result.
BVB are conceding more goals at home than they have for a long time and could already be mentally in Paris. This leads me to opt for the following combination:
Dortmund score goals on both sides
