HSV – Leverkusen Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 17 on Tuesday, 13/01/2026 at 20:30 CET
A good Black Forest cake lives from the fact that less is sometimes more – I proceed in a similar way with my HSV Leverkusen prediction this English week.
The Leverkusen odds of around 2.10 for a simple away three on the Elbe are attractive enough to be noticed even without an extra Betano boost. Bayer have already won 4 of the last 5 Bundesliga duels against HSV.
Nevertheless, I have one or two AI-supported HSV Leverkusen tips for you below, which could also be interesting.
The bottom line is that I just firmly expect that we will see a completely different Bayer Leverkusen than we did a few days ago against VfB.
Leverkusen’s tendency to not let anything burn against Bundesliga newcomers is immediately noticeable even to the inexperienced football fan.
Since the 2-1 defeat to Arminia Bielefeld in March 2021, Bayer 04 Leverkusen have not lost any of their last 17 Bundesliga games against newcomers (W13 D4) – a club record.
League-wide, only RB Leipzig currently has a longer winning streak against promoted teams (38 games)..
HSV – Leverkusen Prediction & Betting
I have already announced some more HSV Leverkusen tips with good chances of success in the introduction – and that’s exactly what we’re going to dedicate ourselves to now!
Two types of bets stand out to me in particular in the offer of good betting providers with PayPal: “Leverkusen scores in both halves” (odds approx. 2.72) and “Leverkusen over 1.5 goals” (odds approx. 1.82).
The Werkself should not be squeamish about the promoted team. After 16 matchdays, Bayer have already scored 34 Bundesliga goals – only the record champions are above that in this ranking.
Under Kasper Hjulmand, the offensive output of the Rhinelanders is even 2.1 goals per game, while HSV has kept a clean sheet at home.
What you need to know about HSV vs. Leverkusen betting
- Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.75 points per game at the Volksparkstadion, which is the seventh-best home value in the Bundesliga.
- HSV’s chances of staying in the league in 2026 depend heavily on this home strength, as they will receive many teams from the top half of the table there.
- Bayer Leverkusen were 4-0 down at half-time against Stuttgart last Saturday and were faced with four big chances in the game and an expected goals (xG) value of 2.6 for the opponent.
- Since Kasper Hjulmand has been coaching Leverkusen, the team has picked up 28 points in 14 Bundesliga games (average 2.0 per game) and scored 34 goals (average 2.14 per game), which is the second-best figure in this period.
- HSV midfielder Albert Sambi Lokonga scored four goals from just twelve shots on goal, which corresponds to a best shot conversion rate of 33.3% in the Bundesliga.
HSV – Leverkusen: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
The independent HSV Leverkusen AI prediction of my digital betting buddy doesn’t fundamentally contradict my prediction, but focuses on an entertaining course of the game, while I’m firmly on the side of the Werkself.
“Both score – yes” is his first betting recommendation at odds around 1.57, which I am willing to give your blessing to as a human Bundesliga expert with years of betting experience.
HSV certainly meet the requirements for the honorary goal: On the one hand, because they collected 87.5% of their Bundesliga points at the Volksparkstadion, and on the other hand, because Leverkusen’s defensive performance in the recent 4-1 defeat against Stuttgart left a lot to be desired.
Based on the observation above, our AI also recommends the selection Over 3.5 goals at odds around 2.62. In my eyes, you are missing out on value, as I think a 3:1 or even 4:1 for the guests is at least as likely.
Consequently, the combination bet Leverkusen to win & both teams to score at odds of around 3.50 would probably make a little more sense. I just don’t see HSV keeping up with the Champions League participant over 90 minutes.
The best odds for HSV vs. Leverkusen
Let’s now take a look at the HSV Leverkusen betting odds and let’s see what the best Bundesliga odds of the 17th matchday look like for this match.
A home win for the newly promoted team is rated 3.40. The bookmakers see the Hanseatic team as outsiders, but believe that they have a chance of scoring through home advantage, intense pressing and set pieces. The quota signals: possible, but risky.
The draw is 3.80. The bookmakers calculate that Leverkusen will control the game, but HSV could at least hold out for a long time through isolated transitions and defensive stability.
A point is not unlikely, but not the preferred scenario.
An away win for the Werkself is traded at 2.00. The markets are counting on the quality, experience and tactical clout of the Werkself.
The odds show: Leverkusen is considered the favourite, but a moment of surprise for Hamburg is theoretically possible at any time.
HSV vs Leverkusen Match Analysis:
Leverkusen go into this duel as clear favourites, 13 points ahead of Hamburg, and will take control for long stretches. The Werkself have the technically superior style of play and will create significantly more top-class chances than the hosts.
With the third-best xG in the league and the second most goals, the guests are extremely dangerous offensively and always look for the direct way into the penalty area.
HSV will try with all their might to counter this, but Leverkusen’s idea of the game is likely to often put them at a disadvantage.
Nevertheless, the guests are by no means unassailable. It was only at the weekend that Leverkusen were surprised by VfB’s strong counter-attacking play, which in turn was able to score two goals from quick transition moments.
Hamburg will want to take up exactly this plan and play forward immediately after winning the ball. This promises to be a very open game with many transitions.
In addition, cards are to be expected: Leverkusen games are watched by the most in the league, Hamburg is right behind in this ranking. So the duel could not only be high-scoring, but also marked by many interruptions.
HSV Form Check
Hamburg currently has a four-point lead over the relegation zone. Last Saturday, the Hanseatic team lost 2-1 to Freiburg after initially taking the lead, but had to play with a man down from the 51st minute after a red card.
In the last three Bundesliga games, Hamburg have only taken one point from two defeats and a draw, scoring three goals and conceding seven. It almost seems as if the spirit of optimism at the beginning of the season has slowly but surely evaporated.
At home, however, the North Germans are difficult to beat: Four wins from the last seven home games at the Volksparkstadion and only one defeat in this period underline their home strength.
With a home points average of 1.75, Hamburg would even be seventh in the Bundesliga in a fictitious table in which only the performances in their own stadium would be taken into account.
The points against Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt as well as a win against Stuttgart have definitely done the team’s self-confidence good before the duel with Leverkusen!
Leverkusen form check
Bayer Leverkusen suffered a setback in the battle for the top 4 places in the Bundesliga after losing 4-1 to Stuttgart on Saturday.
The Rhinelanders were already 4-0 down at half-time and were faced with a total of four great scoring chances and an expected goals (xG) value of 2.6 – the second-highest value they have recorded so far this season.
Nevertheless, not everything about Kasper Hjulmand’s work is bad. Because according to expected points, they would rank third – with 27.6 points and thus only one point behind Dortmund!
Their finishing strength also remains impressive: With a conversion rate of 15.96%, they are in second place in the Bundesliga after Bayern (18.58%).
Coach Hjulmand, however, will be looking to improve their own defensive performance, as Leverkusen have conceded at least two goals in three of their last five games in all competitions.
Offensively, the team remains strong, especially away from home: Five wins from the last six away games with only one defeat against Augsburg underpin their away strength.
Since the Dane took over, they have also collected 28 points from 14 Bundesliga games with exactly two points per game – only Bayern (38) and Dortmund (29) have been more successful. The development since the last change of coach therefore remains a positive one!
