HSV – Bayern Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 20 on Saturday, 31.01.2026 at 18:30 CET
For my Hamburg Bayern tip for the 20th matchday of the Bundesliga, I took a close look at the top game on Saturday evening. Worlds collide here: The relegation candidate from the north welcomes the undisputed league leader.
But I’m committing myself to a real insider tip here, which many will not have on their list. I play the Asian Handicap Line of +1.5 on HSV at Bet-at-home. The odds of 2.10 are really more than fair when you look at the data.
Why do I do this? Quite simply: Hamburg is an impressively stable defensively stable force at home. They have only conceded nine goals in their own stadium, which can keep up with Bayern’s record.
HSV is currently in 14th place in the table and is only three points ahead of the relegation spot, which Mainz currently occupies. So every point is worth its weight in gold, even if it’s against the record champions, who are leading the league confidently.
However, Bayern suffered a setback last weekend. The surprising 2-1 home defeat against Augsburg was the first defeat of the season and has melted the lead over pursuers Dortmund to eight points.
Despite the bankruptcy, the bookmakers naturally see Bayern as the big favourites. But HSV showed after the 0-0 draw in the derby against St. Pauli that they can fight. A point would be a sensation, but a narrow defeat is possible.
HSV – Bayern Prediction & Betting
Apart from my main tip, there are of course other interesting markets. A victory for Bayern with odds of 1.25 at bookmakers with PayPal is not an insider tip, but for a combination bet this is a relatively safe bank that you can take with you.
Another exciting option for your Hamburg Bayern bets is for both teams to score. HSV has scored an average of 1.63 goals in six of its last eight home games. Bayern’s defence has been wobbling alarmingly since the winter break.
In all four of Bayern’s Bundesliga games in 2026, the bet “Both teams to score” has won. The odds of 1.66 at Bet365 are therefore really an alternative worth considering if you think the HSV attack can score.
What you need to know about HSV vs. Bayern betting
- The home side’s defence is a real bulwark at home and has only conceded nine goals – only Dortmund are better at home.
- Bayern’s dominance is overwhelming, but after the surprising defeat against Augsburg, the dream of an unbeaten season has been shattered.
- Pure offensive power: The striker trio of Harry Kane, Luis Diaz and Nicolas Jackson have a combined 33 goals in the Bundesliga this season.
- HSV don’t score often, but they do score regularly at home. They have been able to net in six of their last eight home games, while Bayern have often conceded goals recently.
HSV – Bayern: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model is also hot on Bayern’s heels this season and provides you with more prediction alternatives in its HSV Bayern AI prediction.
In the last three games, Bayern have never scored more than two goals each. If you want to, the AI recommendation “Bayern under 2.5 goals” at odds around 2.00 is the best choice.
The selection “Draw at half-time” is also interesting. HSV knows how to defend itself in front of its home crowd and is unlikely to buckle until the second half. In a pinch, the odds around 2.90 are something for a Winamax Freebet.
Bayern have only kept one clean sheet in the last six games. The combination bet “Win Bayern & Both Teams Score” is rewarded by the bookmakers with odds of around 2.20.
The best odds for HSV vs. Bayern
Of course, our AI tool has also calculated the game and comes to a clear result. The probability of an away win for Bayern is estimated at a whopping 70.5%, while a home win is considered very unlikely at only 12.6%.
The algorithm analysis predicts a result of 0.87 to 2.39 goals, which on the one hand underpins Bayern’s victory, but on the other hand also supports my prediction. A win by just one goal would be enough for the +1.5 Asian Handicap Line to HSV.
The Hamburg Bayern betting odds reflect this expectation. The bookmakers only give HSV a chance of winning of about 11%, while Bayern are considered the clear favorite of the entire matchday, with an implied probability of victory of around 80%.
That’s why the Asian Handicap Line is so interesting. For bets on Bayern -2.0 you would need a win with at least three goals difference for the full profit. A two-goal win would give the stake back, but this has rarely happened recently.
This is exactly where I come in: HSV can counter with its home strength and avoid a heavy defeat. The odds for the Asian over 3.5 goals are also within the realm of possibility, as the Bayern attack is always good for a spectacle.
It is also worth taking a look at the goalscorer markets. Harry Kane, Luis Diaz and Nicolas Jackson are all trading at odds below 2.00 for a hit. In view of Munich’s offensive power, this is almost a logical consequence.
HSV vs Bayern Match Analysis:
In this encounter, two football worlds really collide. Bayern are at the top of the table with a 32-point lead over Hamburg, while HSV is deep in the relegation battle. So the roles could hardly be more clearly distributed.
For Vincent Kompany’s team, it’s all about getting back on track quickly after the slip-up against Augsburg. They must defend their eight-point lead over Dortmund and cannot afford any more blunders in the title race.
For Merlin Polzin’s team, every point would be a huge bonus. They have not won against Bayern since the 2009/10 season. They will probably have to get the points in the fight to stay in the league against other opponents.
Nevertheless, the Hamburgers will throw everything into the balance in front of their home crowd. The first leg went 5-0 to Bayern, but HSV should put up much more resistance at home. The Munich team will dominate the game, that’s for sure.
Kompany’s team leads the Bundesliga in expected goals (xG) and goals actually scored. They will create a plethora of chances, but recent games have also shown that they are vulnerable to counterattacks.
That is the small but fine hope for HSV. If they manage to keep a clean sheet defensively for a long time and set pinpricks over quick counter-attacks, it could be closer than many expect. That’s exactly what makes my Hamburg – Bayern forecast so exciting.
HSV Form Check
Last week, HSV drew goalless in the explosive city derby against St. Pauli. In a game with few chances, both teams were visibly anxious not to make any mistakes and avoid defeat.
This point was satisfactory for Hamburg in the end. They held St. Pauli to only 0.7 expected goals (xG), which was mainly due to the only 18-year-old Croatian defensive talent Luka Vuskovic, who delivered a strong game.
However, HSV has now been waiting for a win for five Bundesliga games. With three draws and two defeats, this is the longest dry spell of the current season. The offense in particular is a major concern.
With only 17 goals scored, the Hamburgers have the weakest attack in the league together with St. Pauli and Heidenheim. Away from home, only four goals were scored. The dependence on home strength is enormous.
The team scored an impressive 83% of their points in their own stadium – the highest percentage in the entire league. They have remained unbeaten in their last five home games, with two wins and three draws. That gives hope.
But the upcoming tasks are tough. The next eight home opponents are all above HSV in the table, starting with the leaders from Munich. Maintaining this streak will be a mammoth task.
Bayern Form Check
Bayern flexed their muscles in the Champions League during the week and secured second place in the league phase with a 2-1 win at PSV Eindhoven. That was the perfect answer to the surprising Bundesliga bankruptcy.
The shock of the 2-1 defeat against Augsburg was deep and ended a run of 27 unbeaten league games. Away from home, however, Bayern are still a force to be reckoned with and are unbeaten in 18 games, 14 of which have been won.
Of course, they want to continue this series against Hamburg. The record speaks volumes: Bayern have won 66 times against HSV in the Bundesliga. Only against Stuttgart did they celebrate more victories (72).
With 25 points from the first nine away games, the Munich team have even equalled their own record from the 2012/13 treble season under Jupp Heynckes. The offense is frightening with 3.56 goals per away game.
However, cracks are showing up in the defence. In none of the first four league games in 2026 could they keep a clean sheet. In seven of the last nine competitive games, they have conceded at least one goal. This is the chance for HSV.
Despite the defensive wobbles, the attack remains an absolute weapon. With 72 goals in 19 games, they have the best offense in Europe’s top 5 leagues. You can almost always rely on simply scoring more goals than your opponent.
