Shanghai Masters, Quarter-finals, Friday, 11.10.2024, 12:30
A special day for Jakub Mensik. On Friday, he will face the most successful player in tennis history, Novak Djokovic. It is his first match against the Olympic champion from Paris, who was able to improve after a complicated start.
The veteran completed the last two rounds in a hurry. Will the next quick success follow?
Like the bookmakers, I think it will be decided in two sets, but Mensik should put up a good fight after beating two top 10 players in Shanghai. I’m going for Tipwin’s over 19.5 games.
The tournament so far has been a real feat of strength for Mensik. As an unseeded player, the current world no. 65 had to play in the first round, against Pedro Martinez, and against the three subsequent opponents, he had to play to a third set each time.
He made a real impression, beating Andrey Rublev (6-7, 6-4, 6-3) and Grigor Dimitrov (6-3, 3-6, 6-4) to reach his first Masters quarter-final in the still young career of the 19-year-old man from Prostějov.
Previously, he reached the third round in Madrid, just like at the US Open. He is still waiting for a tournament victory, but he reached the final in Qatar in February, losing to Karen Khachanov. In 2023, he won a Challenger in his home country, beating a certain Dominik Koepfer.
The man, who is about to face an opponent who has won everything there is to win in tennis, is on a steep upward trajectory. At 37, he has already been on Earth for about twice as long as his quarter-final opponent in Shanghai.
At Happybet, he is the clear favorite at 1.10, and you can get odds of 6.50 for the Mensik victory. However, I would avoid those given Djokovic’s current form.
After the 7-6, 7-6 against Michelsen, I was convinced that Djokovic would have a difficult game against Flavio Cobilli. But the superstar of the scene stepped it up a notch, made hardly any mistakes and chased the Italian around the court with well-placed balls on the lines.
Roman Safiullin, after his long match against Frances Tiafoe, which lasted over three hours, no longer had enough in the tank to make the match more exciting. With all due respect to the performance of the world’s four, his competitors have not made it too difficult for him so far.
Cobolli made a lot of mistakes, but at the same time he didn’t take any risks with his shots. With little aggressiveness and a lot of mistakes, a game against Djokovic is quickly over. Maybe it was also the nervousness, after all it was the first time he met his idol.
As mentioned, Safiullin had a match that lasted a good three hours the day before. I expect more from Mensik, who has already had to go into a third set four times, but like Djokovic, he had a day to catch his breath on Thursday.
However, the set win rate of 2.62 is too hot for me. Instead, I find the overs market interesting. For the over 19.5 line, a 1.65 is waiting at Tipwin, Leverkusen’s sports betting partner and a betting provider without tax.
If one of the two sets goes into a tiebreak, the bet is almost won, a 6-1 in the other round would then be enough. For example, it would also be successful with a 6-4, 6-4 or 7-5, 6-2.
Against Dimitrov and Alex Shevchenko, Mensik allowed just six break points in six sets, half of which he defended. It won’t be easy for Djokovic to constantly get into the break region, even though the Serb is much more capable of returning. But Mensik is not without danger against the serve either.
My Mensik Djokovic Tip
Djokovic has delivered two flawless matches against Safiullin and Cobolli, but in both games he did not face a strong headwind. Mensik has already beaten two top 10 players and in the last six sets he has only offered six break points.
The 19-year-old will throw everything at the most important match of his career so far to give the high-flyer a real challenge. After the matches so far, I definitely think he’s capable of it. At least one of the two sets should last a little longer.
My Mensik Djokovic tip: Over 19.5 games
