Shanghai Masters, semi-finals, Saturday, 12.10.2024, 09:00
“If you keep playing like this, you’ll win the tournament,” Tommy Paul said to the winner Tomas Machac after his defeat, who then took Carlos Alcaraz out of the field and will now face the world number one, Jannik Sinner, in the semi-finals of the Shanghai Masters on Saturday.
The South Tyrolean has been warned. The Czech is a very unpleasant opponent on hardcourt, who is getting stronger and stronger over the course of his career and is currently in outstanding form.
In my Sinner Machac betting tip, I am of the opinion that he will show this again in the match against the number one and do not expect the South Tyrolean to win quickly. The over 19.5 games bet from Tipwin is my choice.
The Czechs are turning up the heat in Shanghai. With Jakub Mensik and Tomas Machac, two players have been in the quarter-finals. Machac’s journey continues in the round of the last four against Sinner.
The odds for the first Masters final after the semi-final debut are not too good, at least according to the bookmakers. Happybet and Co. offer odds of around 1.10 for Sinner, who has only lost three hard court matches all year.
Depending on the sports betting platform, you can get 6.25 for Machac, while the single set win for the underdog is in the region of 2.62. However, it’s clear to me that if he can match the level of the Alcaraz match, the Czech won’t even be at that level, at least not a clear one.
I see Sinner as more consistent on hardcourt than Alcaraz, who occasionally concedes a surprising defeat because his own game doesn’t fit or he lacks the flexibility to react tactically to such an aggressive game from the Czech.
In the end, however, Machac put in a fabulous performance against the Beijing champion, beating the Spaniard with his strong forehand with his own weapons, peppering him with one showpiece shot after the other.
Just how strong he was in the rallies is also clear from Machac’s poor first serve ratio. In the second round, the 33rd-ranked player in the world successfully hit only 45 percent of his shots into the diagonal half of the court.
10 winners and 19 unforced errors don’t read well either, but the Czech forced Alcaraz into many forced errors.
Machac has already shown against Alcaraz at the Davis Cup that he is dangerous on the surface and can also challenge the top elite. The Czech won the first set against the 2024 Channel Slam triumphant, but then had to retire due to injury.
He also reached the semi-finals in Tokyo just a few days before the tournament in Shanghai and had to retire in round four against Jack Draper at the US Open. I don’t expect a quick defeat against Sinner. That’s why I have two hot odds from Tipwin in my sights.
The big advantage of Tipwin is that they offer over/under bets and a game handicap line. In addition, without betting tax, five percent more profit remains.
Tipwin is also the official sports betting partner of German champions Bayer Leverkusen.
Now to the odds. I find the over 19.5 games bet, for which 1.62 is offered at Tipwin, very interesting. He will certainly concede a break or two against the defensively strong Sinner, who also amazed the Italian giant slalom competition in his early years with his agility and explosiveness.
At the same time, I expect Machac to be able to exert pressure with his strong forehand on the return. So far, the competition has struggled against Sinner.
Only Tomas Martin Etcheverry has taken a service game and set from him in round three. It was his second victory after beating Taro Daniel 6-1, 6-4. Most recently, Sinner took the racket out of the hands of the two hard court heavyweights Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev.
The first duel between Machac and Sinner was a clear-cut affair when they met in this year’s quarter-finals in Miami. The final score was 6-4, 6-2, and I don’t expect a repeat of this clear result on Saturday!
Machac’s victory with the help of a +4.5 game handicap could be promising on the right. The Czech will throw everything into his most important single match of his career so far against Sinner.
My Sinner Machac tip
In March, Machac took a beating from Sinner. But he has improved over the course of the year. The Olympic mixed doubles victory with Katerina Siniakova may have spurred him on even more.
In his Shanghai matches, he leaves nothing to chance and his opponent. He acts aggressively on the court and tries to exert pressure with the first shot. I have more confidence in Sinner against Machac than Alcaraz, but I think the odds of 1.10 are excessive.
I find both the +4.5 handicap for the Czech player lucrative, as well as my final bet, which is based on the number of games.
My Sinner Machac tip: Over 19.5 games
