Serie A 23rd matchday, Sunday, 02/02/2025 at 6:00 PM
Overnight, SSC fans have become the biggest Milan supporters. That’s because the southern Italians are hoping that their immediate pursuer will falter. So there’s a lot at stake in the Derby della Madonina!
The Rossoneri want to make amends for their horror performance on the last Champions League matchday, while Inter want to catch up with the Neapolitans at the top with a win.
The most recent performances speak more in favor of the Inzaghi team, but derbies are known to have their own laws.
Can Milan strike back and possibly decide the title race? My AC Milan Inter Milan prediction provides you with some crucial information in this regard.
Fancy a little historical digression? Inter has won more Serie A games (70 wins) and scored more goals (259) against city rivals Milan than against any other club!
However, there have also been 56 draws between the two clubs – a record number in Inter’s history.
My Milan Inter prediction, meanwhile, is that Internazionale will win more than just a point.
The betting providers’ prediction?
The football betting providers see Inter Milan as favorites in this prestigious city derby, which is underlined by the odds of 1.95 for a victory of the “Nerazzurri”.
A draw is valued at 3.60, while a success for the Rossoneri is also rated as somewhat less likely at 3.85.
And there are reasons for this: while Inter has been running like a well-oiled machine this season, Milan has repeatedly struggled with inconsistent performances.
The Derby della Madonnina has its own rules, but these AC Milan v Inter Milan betting odds give you a first well-founded overview of who deserves to be the favorite.
Analysis: AC Milan vs. Inter Milan
After a disappointing night in Europe, Milan must quickly refocus on the league, as they face city rivals Inter in the 182nd Derby della Madonnina.
Trailing the league leaders by 16 points, the Rossoneri are under pressure, but can at least look back on two consecutive derby victories – as many as in their previous 13 meetings combined.
Coach Sérgio Conceição, who took over at the end of 2024 and once played for Inter himself, could become the first AC coach since Massimiliano Allegri to win his first two derbies in 2011. Milan, meanwhile, have not lost at home since October (5 wins, 4 draws).
Inter, on the other hand, are chasing their 21st Scudetto and can draw level with league leaders Napoli with a win.
The Nerazzurri have already advanced to the Champions League knockout stage with a win in the middle of the week and have only lost one of their last 12 games – the Super Cup final against Milan (10 wins, 1 draw). This is a prime example of a perfectly oiled machine!
A statistical advantage in view of Sunday: Inter have not lost in Serie A against teams in the top eight at the San Siro if they were considered favorites in the betting markets in advance, as is also the case this time (15 wins, 5 draws).
Odds Analysis
There is a pattern to the defending champions scoring early on, which is why I particularly like the “Inter score the first goal” at odds of 1.70. After all, the Milan side have scored 1-0 in all of their last five away Serie A games.
If you want to take a little more risk, you could also consider “Inter win both halves” at odds of around 8.25. In their last two competitive games, Inter actually managed to win both halves separately.
Inter: Away from home without conceding a goal for 630 Serie A minutes!
An Inter win to nil at odds of around 3.40 sounds anything but far-fetched – rather like a really solid tip.
On the one hand, their city rivals’ last appearance against Zagreb was a real tragedy. On the other hand, the numbers speak for themselves: Inter has won each of its last seven Serie A away games without conceding a goal.
Seven clean sheets is a real achievement! If the defense is as stable as that, it could turn out to be a pretty smart AC Milan Inter Milan tip.
Milan is not a team for the big points!
Champions and Champions League participants have to deliver in exactly these kinds of duels – and in this respect, Inter simply has the better cards when it comes to the so-called “big points”.
Because let’s take a look at the direct comparisons with the other top teams in the league: While Inter regularly scores, things look rather bleak for Milan here.
In games against the current top eight in Serie A, the Rossoneri have just one win, two draws and four defeats. That doesn’t sound like a team that delivers in the decisive games, does it?
A bet that it will be a tough first half definitely has its appeal.
Although the last seven Serie A derbies between Inter and Milan have been fairly even with three wins for each team and one draw, there is a striking pattern!
Watch out: Inter have scored at least once before half-time in all of these games. So, if you are betting on early action, you could find a thrilling value pick here.
I particularly favor betting providers that support Apple Pay, as they provide your AC Milan Inter Milan tip with the necessary legal basis to place Serie A bets to your heart’s content without hesitation.
My tip:
Inter has shown significantly more consistency in big games, while Milan disappointed in Zagreb last time out. The Nerazzurri have only lost one of their last twelve games and are chasing their 21st Scudetto, while Milan are fighting to get into the European places.
Although Milan have won their last two derbies, Inter remain historically superior with 70 Serie A victories. Milan have shown weaknesses recently, especially against top-eight teams – another advantage for Inter.
My AC Milan Inter Milan betting tip: Internazionale wins to nil.
