La Liga, Sunday, 02/02/2025 at 6:30 PM
Admittedly, draws are generally a very popular result in the Primera Division, but Osasuna seems to have made a pact with them! The Pamplona-based club would now like to surprise their fans with a win for the first time since early November.
Their opponents on Sunday: a team that would probably call themselves the minimalists of the league. A less exciting duel? Not at all!
I’ll tell you what’s behind it in my Osasuna-Real Sociedad tip! In it, I also explain why I have a little more faith in the home side.
I would like to start my analysis with the guests from the beautiful Basque Country in Spain. We have known Real Sociedad for years as a club that is always in the running for international places, and usually achieves them.
Of course, they want it to be the same in 2024/25, but they are still lagging behind. Eight wins, four draws and nine defeats – these initial numbers quickly show why Real Sociedad is anything but satisfied with their current position in the table.
The team has lost three of its last four games, without scoring a single goal. This is a good point to mention, because the Basques generally have such a hard time scoring goals that they should really be fighting for survival in offensive terms!
They have scored 17 goals, which is only bettered by bottom-of-the-league Valladolid with their 14. The zero was on the credit side ten times, with only four times there being more than one goal.
Why is Sociedad still relatively high up in the table? Well, quite simply because they defend really well. We have recorded 17 goals against, only Atletico has conceded fewer (14).
Admittedly, it is not always nice to watch the team. A total of THREE times this season, goals were recorded on both sides, 16 of the 21 results, as you might have guessed, did not exceed the 2.5 goals mark.
So, I’ll give you a few betting options. Option number one: Real will once again go a goal-less on Sunday. After registering with Betano, you are in with a really good chance of placing this bet at odds of 2.67.
At the same time, you can exclude the BTS, which brings in odds of 1.70. And for the very brave: the tip “Under 1.5 hits” achieves 2.40! The classic “Under 2.5” no longer pays off, because we don’t even crack the odds of 1.50 here.
On we go, because there are more interesting facts for you. With 7.5 goals scored away from home, the average is 1.2 goals per game – so you already have your evidence for under 1.5!
Goals on both sides? Never. Clean sheets? A strong six. The bet that Osasuna won’t score in a direct duel still climbs to 2.47 at Betano. By the way: eight of the last nine matches between the two teams have, of course, had no BTS, with a maximum of two goals being scored in the league since December 2019.
The Basques had not lost a single game in this fixture for twelve years, but they suddenly lost the last two games. A glance at our bookmakers shows that they are finding it incredibly difficult to pick a favorite.
With average odds of 3.00 to 2.65, Real Sociedad is slightly ahead, but the home side has basically the same chance of winning. Or is Osasuna simply betting everything on a draw?
It’s easy to believe, because in six of the last eight games, there was exactly one point! At the same time, however, it is unfortunately also the case that the Rojillos have not won in nine games.
Six goals away from 19 at home? It seems that Osasuna is strong at home! They have only lost twice at home, while Betis Sevilla and Athletic Bilbao both took 2-1 wins.
A goal average of 3.1? Real Sociedad are completely unfamiliar with that! Osasuna’s home goal difference shows: 19:15 – these values are almost identical to those of the opponent, only that they have been consistent throughout the season.
At least: in the first half, the BTS only scored three times, which is something the guests can use as a guide. How many times did that happen at Real Sociedad? Once. Therefore, excluding the BTS only earns you odds of 1.15 for Sunday.
For Real Sociedad and Osasuna, the question on Sunday is: what style of play will we present to the spectators? The Rojillos’ home games are sometimes quite turbulent, while nothing really happens when they are away.
The Basques stand for, sorry, boring football, they hardly ever score, but they defend all the better. They have lost three of their last four games, while Osasuna are doing quite well at home.
I expect a tough fight at absolute eye level. But since I can’t and don’t really want to commit myself, I’ll minimize the risk and say:
DC 1X, Osasuna will not lose!