Arsenal – Bayern betting tip
It seems a bit strange: The Gunners are the big favorites in the first leg of the Champions League quarter-finals and yet my Arsenal Bayern betting tip leaves me with certain doubts that the game at the Emirates will be as clear-cut as the bookies predict.
In itself, odds of up to 1.75 against 4.80 leave little doubt as to who will prevail according to the Arsenal Bayern betting tips tonight (21:00).
However, Bayern are an opponent that the Londoners have never been able to overcome in a knockout duel.
The promotion odds of 1.65 to 2.20, which are up for grabs alongside the Interwetten voucher at this top bookmaker, show that the battle for the semi-finals might not be quite as tight as it looked before Munich’s embarrassing 3-2 defeat at Heidenheim.
As recently as Friday, the odds on the Gunners advancing were 1.85 to 1.90.
But one thing at a time. First of all, the German record champions have to win at the Emirates Stadium to put themselves in a good position for the second leg.
Given the Gunners’ performances to date under Mikel Arteta, this will be a very difficult task. Arsenal have not only won all four of their home games in the top flight so far, but have also not conceded a single goal.
Bayern have won their three away games in the group stage, but lost 1-0 at Lazio Roma in the round of 16.
Even though I think Arsenal are currently stronger than FCB, I expect a rather close affair and am therefore backing a double chance.
My betting tip, which brings me odds of 2.05 with bookmaker Oddset, is: The Gunners score and both teams score!
The bookmaker’s forecast
The omens at the bookmakers with the best sports betting apps leave little room for maneuver. Arsenal is the big favorite in the home game. This is made clear by the odds around the 1.80 mark.
The betting odds for both a draw and a Bayern win are in similar spheres around 4.00 to 4.80.
This has to do with the Gunners’ current strength.
While Arteta’s side are engaged in a thrilling battle with Liverpool and Manchester City for the English championship, FCB’s championship train has finally left the station at the weekend.
Analysis: Arsenal vs Bayern
For Arsenal FC, the draw could hardly have come at a worse time. Bayern Munich, of all teams, was chosen as their quarter-final opponent.
Bayern are a kind of “God is with us” for the Londoners. After all, Arsenal have always lost out to Bayern in a Champions League knockout duel. That was the case in the 2004/05, 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2016/17 seasons.
The last encounter in particular was extremely painful. In the round of 16 in 2017, Arsenal were defeated by a total score of 2:10. The 5-1 defeat in the second leg was the highest home defeat ever at the Emirates.
As if that wasn’t enough, the English side have lost each of their last three games against FCB 5-1.
Of twelve CL meetings with the German record champions, Arsenal have only won three (most recently a 2-0 win in the group stage eight years ago), drawn twice and lost seven games.
Based on these figures alone, I would logically advise against betting on the hosts. But as you will have noticed, those games were a few years ago and Arsenal in particular have gone from strength to strength since the signing of Arteta.
Bayern, on the other hand, are on the decline this season and have already squandered their chances of winning the DFB Cup and championship.
I have a lot of faith in the English side, especially at home, although I certainly wouldn’t write them off completely
Odds analysis
The bookmakers expect a quarter-final duel at eye level, although the odds have recently shifted more towards Arsenal.
If the Gunners make it to the semi-finals for the third time, Interwetten will offer odds of 1.65, as mentioned in the introduction. If Bayern overcome the Arsenal hurdle again, however, you can expect 2.20 times the stake.
Goals seem to be guaranteed, because even if a first leg is usually approached rather cautiously, I believe that the Gunners in particular will present themselves as strong in offense as usual
13 of the total CL-17 goals have been scored by Arsenal in front of their own fans, but Bayern are a completely different caliber than Eindhoven, Sevilla, Lens or Porto.
Nevertheless, betting providers such as Intertops expect the home team to score more than 1.5 goals, which is underlined by corresponding odds of just under 1.70. If the Gunners score less than 1.5 goals, the odds rise to over 2.00.
Bayern are also naturally good for goals, so I recommend fans of goal bets to bet “Both score: Yes”. This will bring around 1.6 times the stake as a profit. Speaking of winnings: If you decide to open an account with Interwetten by April 11, 2024, you can secure a free betting credit worth 11 euros with a voucher code at Top Bookie.
Will the Gunners defeat their “ultimate nemesis? “
“Nightmare draw”, “horror quarter-final”, the British press had their usual pithy comments after the draw for the quarter-finals in the top flight.
As I explained to you earlier, Arsenal’s record against Bayern in the knockout stages is simply disastrous.
But when, if not now, should the Londoners manage to end their black streak against FCB? The omens are very good, because while the Gunners are on a high, Bayern will have to get used to no longer being German champions
The Arteta team are currently in top form and have conceded just one defeat in their last 13 competitive matches, albeit in the Premier League (0:1 at FC Porto), and have celebrated eleven victories, most recently a 3:0 win at Brighton.
On top of that came a brilliant draw at Manchester City at Easter, which kept the Gunners away from Guardiola’s side in the title race.
Their home form is impressive, as the Londoners have lost just two and won 16 of their 20 home games this season. The grapes are also particularly high for Bayern at the Emirates Stadium
Will Bayern miss their last chance at the title?
FC Bayern Munich find themselves in an unusual role this year, because after eleven championship titles in a row, the championship trophy will not be handed over to FCB this year.
They were also knocked out of the DFB Cup at an early stage. This leaves Thomas Tuchel’s team with only one chance to win a title, and that is the most difficult one.
Although the past speaks in favor of progressing against Arsenal, the present gives unusually little reason for hope
The 2:0 defeat against Borussia Dortmund at Easter, and in particular the way Munich performed, makes me fear the worst.
And after the recent 3-2 defeat at newly promoted Heidenheim, things look even bleaker. Munich are 16 points behind leaders Leverkusen, so the Werkself could wrap up the championship as early as next weekend.
However, if their attitude is right, Bayern should be able to hold their own against the English side, who are so strong at home.
In view of the general performance, however, I don’t think the German record champions have much chance of winning this Tuesday. Four wins, one draw and five defeats, including two in a row recently, from the last ten competitive matches underline my prediction
My Arsenal FC Bayern tip:
For my Arsenal Bayern betting tip, I had to choose between the past and the present. The Gunners have lost each of their last three games against FCB with a score of 1:5, but I currently rate the English side as stronger than Bayern.
The hosts’ home strength and their current top form speak in their favor. However, Bayern are still on the other side, even if they’ve had to concede recently.
In addition, the tight game against Porto in the round of 16 (advancing on penalties) has put a slight doubt in the back of my mind.
That’s why I’m providing a safety variant for my Arsenal Bayern bet: Double chance 1X and both score
