Premier League 21st matchday, Wednesday, 15/01/2025 at 9:00 pm
The Spurs now need binoculars to see where they stand in the league and even less to see the top of the table.
Without form and with heavy legs, the Lilywhites travel to the North London derby at the Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal.
The Gunners suffered an irrational defeat against Manchester United, squandering a series of scoring chances. In my Arsenal v Tottenham betting tip, I am now expecting the hosts to be more efficient.
Tottenham are at an impasse, having not won in four competitive games and having lost almost all of their duels with the top teams in the Premier League.
Just as in the first-half duel between these two teams, I expect a narrow victory for the team in second place and Merkur Bets offers odds of 2.60 for “Arsenal win to zero”.
Arsenal have almost always beaten Tottenham in recent encounters. The Gunners have won six of the last eight Premier League duels against Spurs.
The Lilywhites (24) have collected around 16 points less than Arsenal (40) in 20 PL games and are to be considered as clear outsiders. If you are registered with ODDSET, a “win Arsenal” is available at odds of 1.40.
On average, Ange Postecoglou’s team have scored 1.11 points per guest appearance. Over half of the PL away games ended in defeat for the Lilywhites.
The Emirates Stadium has not yet been taken by a league rival in this Premier League season. I will maintain this streak in my Arsenal v Tottenham betting tip. A win for the guests is available at odds of around 6.40.
Tottenham have not returned from any of their last 25 PL away games against the Gunners with a clean sheet.
In my Arsenal vs Tottenham betting tip, the Lilywhites will have to swallow another bitter pill next weekend and will once again not return home without conceding a goal.
Ange Postecoglou is known for his dogmatic attacking approach and does not deviate from it one millimeter. The bill follows in many pairings. Away from home, his team has conceded at least one goal in six of nine meetings.
In addition, Spurs’ away attack (16 goals) lacks penetration and consistency in front of the opposing goal compared to their home games (26 goals).
How tricky away games and the current competitive fixtures in general can be for Spurs was evident in the match against Tamworth.
In the clash with the semi-professionals, Spurs needed extra time to secure a 3-0 win – there was no question of a celebration.
Age Postecoglou has to expect a lot of competitive minutes from many of his regular players this season, which is why I cannot imagine that Tottenham will have the necessary energy reserves to spring a surprise at the Emirates Stadium.
OddsAnalysis
Some may not be entirely satisfied with the Gunners’ role as favorites. Arsenal have not won in their last three competitive games. However, the dropped points look like an anomaly to me.
The hosts scored only one goal in their two previous appearances, but they had 49 shots, 23 corners and 6.41 expected goals. The knot will burst – and that already against Tottenham.
Nevertheless, a certain amount of caution is advised when betting on Arsenal Tottenham. In my opinion, an alternative bet with value would be “Arsenal win & under 4.5 goals”, which you can find at odds of 1.75. You can combine the odds with the LeoVegas betting bonus.
I would tend to bet on not too many goals in this game. 56 percent of Arsenal’s Premier League home games have ended with “under 2.5 goals”.
No Top Team
Tottenham were one of the big six in English football for many years, but this season they have bid farewell to this status for the time being.
The Lilywhites are only twelfth in the PL table and have 24 points after 20 match days.
Age Postecoglou’s dogmatic approach is entertaining, but it is not working for the Lilywhites this season.
Across the league, there are only four teams that have conceded more expected goals than Spurs (34.27 xGA). With a defense as porous as this, the international business for the coming season is almost a done deal.
Arsenal have completely different issues to deal with than Spurs and are more of a team that needs to work on their chances.
In defense, as in previous years, the Gunners hardly let anything happen. Only Liverpool (17.93 xGA) conceded minimally fewer goals than the Arteta team (17.99 xGA).
At home, clean sheets have become routine. At the Emirates Stadium, the Gunners have only conceded six goals so far – while they have conceded twelve away from home.
If the gunners continue as before, they will soon be on the verge of winning 50 percent of their home games without conceding a goal – the hosts are currently on 44 percent.
A clean sheet for the team in second place is more likely than a handicap win, at least in my way of looking at it, and it even brings a higher profit.
So far, the Spurs have not scored a goal in a third of their away appearances. It cannot be ruled out that this rate will be even higher after this game.
Crucial for the Arsenal Tottenham betting tip is a good start from the Gunners. Too often this season, the home side have overslept the start of a game and conceded 28 percent of their goals (5/18) in the opening quarter of an hour.
However, Arsenal has conceded the fewest expected goals in the league at home (6.23 xGA) and kept a clean sheet in two of their last four meetings with Spurs.
On the other hand, only two league rivals scored more expected goals at home (Liverpool, Aston Villa) than Arsenal (22.54 xG), which is why I have great confidence in the home strength of Arteta’s team.
The Spurs love to go into high pressing and accept the risks that come with it. The second-most expected goals conceded per shot (0.14 xGA) are the result.
In addition, the Lilywhites have performed extremely poorly against the top teams in the Premier League this season.
Postecoglou sat down with the press after seven of eight meetings with top-7 teams and answered questions about the reasons for the defeat.
My Arsenal Spurs Tip:
Both teams are not in great form, but Arsenal have had a much more consistent season and can rely on their own defense in most cases
In addition, the Gunners benefit from the home crowd in their own stadium and are ready to go the extra mile to win.
Tottenham have lost almost all of their matches against the top seven in the Premier League and have lost more than half of their away matches in the league.
My Arsenal Tottenham betting tip: Arsenal win without conceding a goal!