Premier League, Monday, December 30, 2024 at 8:45 p.m.
The international places are highly competitive in the English top flight. Aston Villa (9th) and Brighton (10th) have both set their sights on European business, but to do so they must finish the 2024 calendar year victoriously.
The Seagulls have not had any encouraging results for weeks. Fabian Hürzeler and his team are in the midst of a scoring crisis and have not won in six league games.
My Aston Villa Brighton tip predicts another setback for the guests. At Bwin, I play a classic three-way bet and bet on a “win Aston Villa” with odds of 2.10.
The last three Premier League duels between Aston Villa and Brighton all ended the same way – a home win.
For my Aston Villa Brighton tip, I’m taking the Bwin bonus and betting on the continuation of this series, which is the most likely scenario from the bookmakers’ point of view in a three-way bet.
Fabian Hürzeler and his team should not be surprised by the bookmakers’ assessment, as the results of the last few weeks have been too weak for that.
The Seagulls have not won in the last six league games (4W, 2D) and have slipped to tenth place in the Premier League table.
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Hürzeler will probably have to do without his top striker Danny Wellbeck (6 goals), who is facing a two-match suspension.
That certainly lowers the chances of an end to the dry spell. Furthermore, the Villans have had a great run in their last few home games against Brighton, winning three in a row.
During that streak, Unai Emery saw his team score at least two goals in each of the three home games against Brighton.
Since the Villans have also scored an average of 1.67 goals per home game this season and have used more than half of the games at Villa Park for “Over 1.5 goals”, this Oddset Freebet on “Aston Villa Over 1.5 goals” and the odds of 1.90 are firmly planned.
In the course of the analysis for my Aston Villa Brighton tip, it became clear how much the Villans’ defense benefits from the atmosphere in home games.
According to understat.com, only Arsenal (6.23 xGA) have conceded fewer expected goals in their own stadium than Aston Villa (7.79 xGA).
On the road, however, Unai Emery’s team allowed the fifth-most expected goals conceded (19.90 xGA) and was much more prone to error.
That’s why I’m not letting the recent 0-3 away defeat to Newcastle unsettle me and am sticking with a “Villa win”.
The last three home wins against Manchester City (2-1), Southampton (1-0) and Brentford (3-0) were all initiated by a furious first half from the Villans.
In all three encounters, Emery’s team went into the half-time break with a lead. They could do the same against the Seagulls. Brighton have not scored a goal in the first half in their last three league games.
The Seagulls have been lacking some spark in attack for several matchdays. The guests have not scored more than 1.13 expected goals in three encounters.
But Brighton has not only had problems scoring goals. The Seagulls are clearly prone to errors in defense and have conceded a total of 27.8 expected goals (12th).
Should Danny Wellbeck really be out on Monday evening, the Seagulls will lack a target man in attack, who is not found a second time in the Seagulls’ squad.
Joao Pedro (3 goals) was allowed to start last time out, but the center forward is not in his best shape and has not scored since matchday 13.
The Villans are used to being strong at home and have put on 2.00 points per home game this Premier League season. A great value that was last confirmed by three home wins in a row.
Brighton have lacked self-confidence in their play forward as well as composure and composure in the final third for several weeks.
My Aston Villa Brighton tip is therefore: Aston Villa win against Brighton!
