Europa League, semi-final second leg, Thursday, 09.05.2024
This match is the only one in the Conference League and Europa League semi-finals that did not see a winner leave the pitch in the first leg. Accordingly, many pundits expect this to be another knife-edge match a week later.
In my Atalanta Bergamo Marseille betting tip, however, I believe in the ability of the northern Italians to considerably increase their own pace at the Gewiss Stadium. So much so, in fact, that I’ll be hitting up the sportsbooks with a betting intention to that effect between now and Thursday.
The first leg was a very tight affair! Atalanta scored the 1:0, but the French didn’t let that sit for long, equalized and put the Italians under pressure until the end.
However, it now seems to be rather easier for the Serie A club at the Gewiss Stadium to bring about a decision in their favor.
After all, Atalanta have already managed to win four of their five knockout matches in major European competitions, in which they initially avoided defeat in the away leg.
As a reminder, they drew 1-1 at Sporting Lisbon in the round of 16 this season and beat Liverpool 3-0 at Anfield Road in the quarter-finals before securing promotion on both occasions a week later.
Giampiero Gasperini’s side’s physical style of play means you always have to worry a little about their fitness, but surprisingly, games in which their strength has waned early have been rare.
Reaching the final would be a big deal for the Italians, there is no doubt about that – and this aspect could give them extra motivation!
Atalanta could soon become the first team to reach a European Cup final in their own club’s history since Ukrainian club FC Dnipro in 2015.
Marseille, on the other hand, last reached the “main event” of a European competition in 2018 in the UEFA Europa League, where they lost 3-0 to Atletico Madrid.
The Bergamasques will also benefit from the visitors’ weakness on the road. Whenever Marseille have had to travel to neighboring Italy in recent years, there has usually been little reason for their supporters to smile after the game.
After all, Marseille have not won any of their last eight games against Italian opponents in European competitions and have drawn the last three (5 defeats).
Extending our analysis a little further, OM have won just one of their 11 away games in “Bella Italia” (5 draws, 5 defeats), a 1-0 win over Inter Milan in the quarter-finals of the 2003/04 UEFA Cup
And, of course, the Gasperini side know how to make the most of their home advantage! In this competition in particular, the data speaks for itself!
Atalanta have only lost two of their 17 home games in the Europa League (10 wins, 5 draws).
What’s more, they have only conceded 11 goals in those 17 games and have kept a clean sheet until the end eight times
It was a tight affair last week, so tight that you have to ask yourself whether the Atalanta Bergamo Marseille odds, which are leaning heavily in favor of the home side, are actually justified in their current form.
After all, the ATA win odds of around 1.80 lead to a much lower payout than, for example, a draw or an away win, for which you can expect an average of 3.80 and 4.33 respectively.
However, experience shows that Bergamo can actually go one better in home games.
Just remember the Coppa Italia semi-final a few weeks ago. There, Atalanta initially played 0:1 as guests of Fiorentina before razing the “Viola” to the ground three weeks later (4:1).
One player who is currently fearing for his invitation to Euro 2024 but is causing a stir in this competition is undoubtedly Gianluca Scamacca.
The striker has scored five of Atalanta’s seven goals in the knockout phase of the Europa League this season, meaning that no other player can beat him in this competition.
For the history buffs among you: The last player to score more goals in the knockout rounds of the competition was James Tavernier for Rangers in the 2021/22 season (7).
Meanwhile,
The Italian promises odds of around 2.62 for a goal against Marseille on the betting markets, which doesn’t make me do any dances of joy, but can at least be classified as “fair”.
By the way: To give you an idea of the extremely wide range of Bet365 sports bets on offer, I’ll show you an interesting special bet for the upcoming European Championship.
If Scamacca becomes the new European Championship top scorer at the major event of the year, the bookmaker giant will pay out bombastic odds of currently 67.0.
Conclusion: Atalanta have proven several times this season that they are capable of a significant increase in performance in their own stadium.
However, OM, like PSG, will benefit from the French FA’s decision to give the two European Cup participants the weekend off so that they can focus fully on their respective second legs.
Nevertheless, I consider Atalanta to be the slightly stronger of the two teams and they should not miss the opportunity to take the lead before the break on Thursday.
My Atalanta Bergamo Marseille betting tip: ATA score 1-0 early again, but hold on to it until the end this time
