Bayer Leverkusen – AS Roma betting tip
Vocabulary such as “easing off”, “loss of tension” or “arrogance” is nowhere to be found in Leverkusen’s vocabulary this season. Bayer have been the new German champions since the 29th matchday.
On Sunday, three days after the semi-final first leg at AS Roma, the Werkself had to face fearful opponents Frankfurt in the Bundesliga, against whom they had previously suffered five defeats in a row.
Coach Xabi Alonso had made eight changes to the starting eleven compared to the previous Europa League match, rested three indispensable regular players and had to sit in the stands himself due to yellow card suspension.
Despite this, the visitors to Deutsche Bank Park were treated to another demonstration of B04’s strength, which ended in a commanding 5:1 victory. The return match in the Europa League is now scheduled for Thursday.
Leverkusen have more than one foot in the final after their 2-0 win at the Stadio Olimpico. The betting odds are also clearly on the side of the home side ahead of the second clash.
In my Leverkusen AS Roma betting tip, I opt for the “Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals” bet at odds of 1.70 with Oddset
The bookmaker forecast
In the Leverkusen AS Roma prediction, things like home advantage, the unbeaten streak and the result from the first leg naturally speak in favor of the hosts.
The odds for a home win only climb to between 1.55 and 1.57. For a win by the visitors from the Italian capital, on the other hand, you can get up to six times the stake with the best bookmakers.
The winner of the semi-final will face Atalanta Bergamo or Olympique Marseille in Dublin on May 22nd.
Analysis: Leverkusen vs AS Roma
The 5-1 win in Frankfurt extended Leverkusen’s unbeaten run to 48 games. Three indispensable players – Florian Wirtz, Alejandro Grimaldo and Jonathan Tah – were rested against Eintracht.
Nevertheless, the team worked like a well-oiled machine, especially in possession. Bayer now face Bochum and Augsburg in the final league sprint.
It is quite possible that the Werkself will survive the entire season without defeat. Another goal in the final spurt of the season is to win the DFB Cup for the second time since 1993.
B04 would also like to reach a European Cup final for the third time, after 1987/88 in the UEFA Cup and 2001/02 in the Champions League. Coach Xabi Alonso’s side were deserved winners in the first leg against Roma
Bayer’s goal never really came under threat apart from from set-pieces. Statistics such as shots on goal (19:8) and expected goals (2.11:1.46) spoke in the visitors’ favor.
Leverkusen have won all five home games in the Europa League this season with an overall goal difference of 19:4. However, their record against Italian clubs is still negative with 14 defeats in 26 matches.
The home record against Serie A representatives is also still in need of improvement, with four wins, three draws and five defeats. The Werkself have won the away first leg of a UEFA knockout tie ten times.
Only once did the club fall by the wayside in the end
Analysis of odds
In the Leverkusen AS Roma preview, the bookmakers are expecting a few goals. There are odds averaging 1.73 for the bet “Over 2.5 goals”. Bayer, together with Liverpool, also have the best offense this EL season (29 goals).
However, only three goals have been scored in the three meetings between the two clubs in the Europa League so far. In addition, AS Roma have scored a total of just six goals in their last six matches in Germany.
I therefore believe that fewer than three goals will be scored and would back “Under 2.5 goals” at odds of 2.12 at Betano. New customers of the provider can be helped here by the Betano betting bonus.
As the Werkself also have the best defense in the Bundesliga, the bet “Both teams to score – No” should also make sense. Betway currently has the best odds for this bet at 2.00.
You can use the bookie’s offer particularly easily and conveniently via the German Betway app
Roma must finish in 5th place!
Daniele de Rossi took over from Jose Mourinho at AS Roma in mid-January and made a good start at his former club, even without much coaching experience.
In the first eleven league games, he only suffered one defeat, against the sovereign champions Inter Milan. The new coach also led the Giallorossi to the EL semi-finals against Feyenoord, Brighton and AC Milan.
In recent weeks, however, the upswing has stalled somewhat. In Serie A, the Romans have only won one of their last four league games. Despite this, the club is still in first place in the CL.
Three matchdays before the end of the season, however, they are only three points ahead of Atalanta. Next Sunday’s league game in Bergamo is likely to be particularly important here
Can the Giallorossi still score the hat-trick?
Despite the home defeat to Bayer, the club have not yet given up on a possible third consecutive European Cup final after winning the 2022 Conference League and losing the 2023 Europa League.
The 2-0 defeat to Bayer was only the second home loss in the last 33 UEFA home games. The Giallorossi have actually been able to rely on their attack around Romelu Lukaku this season, who is second in the EL scoring charts with seven goals.
However, Roma have only managed to score eleven times in their last eleven games. Their record against German clubs stands at eleven wins and 16 defeats in 31 encounters.
They have also won just two of their last ten European Cup away games (4U, 4N). The capital club have also been eliminated in five of their six knockout ties when losing the first leg at home
The first four meetings between the two clubs were played in the top flight. Back then, each team won a home game. There were also two draws. Leverkusen and Roma then met in the EL semi-final of the previous season.
Although Bayer scored 23 times in front of their own fans in the second leg, they were unable to overturn the 0:1 scoreline from the first leg at the Stadio Olimpico
The previous week, the Werkself secured their first away win in this fixture with a 2-0 victory. The Romans have been waiting for a win on their six visits to Germany (2U, 4N).
At home, both of B04’s games against the Giallorossi ended in a draw. If the same happens on Thursday, you’ll get odds of 4.30 at Sunmaker.
Before that, you shouldn’t miss out on the Sunmaker betting bonus, which gives you a 100% bonus of up to €100
My Leverkusen AS Roma betting tip:
Roma will need a miracle to reach a European Cup final for the third time in a row. But after the first leg, which Bayer dominated for the most part, there is nothing to suggest a sensation.
Quite the opposite: Leverkusen did not let up in the slightest and avoided all potential stumbling blocks with aplomb. In addition, B04 are unbeaten in 48 games, never conceding more than two goals and only conceding more than one in ten games.
The Werkself are also the experts when it comes to catching up this season. It is also quite possible that the home side will not rest on their laurels after the 2-0 win, but will go for the win on Thursday.
In the end, however, I’m backing my bet with the “double chance”. My Leverkusen AS Rome prediction is therefore: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals!
