Olympiakos Piraeus – Aston Villa betting tip
Aston Villa face a tough task on Thursday. The English side lost the first leg 4-2 at home. Now they head to the cauldron of Olympiakos Piraeus. Will they really be able to turn things around?
In terms of play, the Villans had more of the match in the first encounter, but were ultimately beaten by the mercilessly efficient Greek record champions. With a two-goal deficit, I expect the visitors to take risks early on in the reunion.
In general, there should be a lot of noise again. Neutral soccer fans could be in for a treat. Since Olympiakos is not dependent on a win, I’m going for the “double chance X2” with over 1.5 goals. Betano serves up strong 1.55 odds for this
Eight chances, four goals, it couldn’t have gone better for Piraeus in the first leg. Ayoub El Kaabi shocked the hosts with an early double strike. After equalizing, he put his team ahead again with a penalty before Santiago Hezze joined the hat-trick scorer on the scoresheet.
At the legendary Karaiskakis, the aim now is to overturn the two-goal lead to secure a place in the final of Europe’s third-tier club competition
The betting providers’ forecast
On paper, Piraeus against Aston Villa is a class difference. The Premier League club has the significantly stronger squad, with a team worth around six times as many millions.
This made the clear away win last Thursday all the more surprising for the best bookmakers. However, they expect a successful revenge in the reunion, with Aston Villa going into the game as favorites at 1.95, followed by the Piraeus win bet (3.60) and the draw (3.80).
Analysis: Olympiakos Piraeus vs. Aston Villa
However, the last league game against Brighton was no encouragement for Unai Emery’s side. The visitors put in an anaemic performance after an exhausting, match-filled season, mustering just two shots with 0.05 expected goals.
Joao Pedro finally decided the game shortly before the final whistle with the only goal of the match. It was Aston Villa’s second defeat in a row after six unbeaten games.
Nevertheless, it is the best season for a long time. Champions League qualification is now only a formality, as Tottenham have lost four games in a row. Spurs would have to win all their games and Aston Villa would only need to pick up one point from their last two matches for anything to change.
In the second leg, it is also important to stabilize the defence. After all, every time Aston Villa concede a goal, they have to score another one themselves. The statistics suggest that at least three goals would be necessary.
AVFC have only scored once in their last nine games, a 2-0 away win against Championship contenders Arsenal. Only one opponent has managed to keep a clean sheet in Piraeus this season
Odds analysis
And that was arch-rivals Panathinaikos Athens, of all teams, who kept a clean sheet at Karaiskakis in both league and cup matches. Olympiakos have scored in all their other home games.
Sunmaker also offers strong 1.30 odds for at least one goal from the hosts. Alternatively, 1.52 is also available for both teams to score. After all, in seven of the last nine Aston Villa matches, both sets of fans have been able to cheer.
In addition, the Villans will have to increase their risk in the second half at the latest, which will open up counter-attacking opportunities for the red and white jerseys. It’s not just the betting selection that makes Sunmaker worth a visit.
New customers receive a first-class bonus, which is spread over the first four bets. In addition to two free bets for the first and fourth ticket, there are two odds boosts for bets number two and three.
New self-confidence under Mendilibar
While Aston Villa can look forward to the end of the season in the league quite relaxed, Olympiakos are still in the middle of the championship battle, currently five points off leaders AEK Athens in the play-offs, although Piraeus have played one game less.
The record champions are in good form, with 13 points from their last five games. The change of coach has long since paid off. As a reminder: Jose Luis Mendilibar took over the reins in February.
After eight games without defeat, self-confidence is high. The last clean sheet came at the end of March, albeit a very painful one in terms of the title race against AEK (0:1).
How the teams battled their way through the knockout phase
However, the Spanish head coach’s team has the qualities of a taker, which it has already shown in European competition. A 4-1 defeat at home to Tel Aviv in the round of 16 threatened to send them crashing out, but they staged a sensational comeback to win 6-1.
After advancing against Ferencvaros and Tel Aviv, they then went through to a penalty shoot-out against Fenerbahce, with both teams showing nerves of steel and Piraeus ultimately reaching the semi-finals despite missing two shots.
Aston Villa also had to decide from the spot last round against Lille. Two 2:1 home wins initially failed to decide the game. As winners of Group A, Emery’s side only had to play in the round of 16 and had no problems after a 4-0 draw at home to Amsterdam
What does the personnel situation actually look like? Francisco Ortega will be missing from the hosts’ left-back position. The winger had to be substituted at the break in the first leg.
However, the Villans do not have an ideal squad situation either. In addition to Boubacar Kamara, Jacob Ramsey, Emiliano Buendia, Alex Moreno and Tyrone Mings are also missing through injury.
All in all, Aston Villa still have a clear advantage in terms of quality. I expect a brave performance from the visitors, who will have to make up a two-goal deficit and even need three to prevent another penalty shoot-out.
But that doesn’t even take into account the possibility of conceding a goal. The double strike is likely to be meticulously tackled by the visitors. In the Betway app, I’ve spotted 1.70 for over 1.5 goals from the visitors
My Olympiakos Aston Villa tip:
The “double chance X2” is a pretty safe bet for me, the Villans already had much more of the game in the first leg, but had big problems when the Greeks were able to control the ball.
However, a draw would easily be enough for them to progress. You can’t expect the hosts to stonewall for 90 minutes, but with a two-goal lead, you can’t take too many risks in the transition game either.
Goals and goals conceded have been part of everyday life for Piraeus and Aston Villa in recent matches and the first leg has already shown that both teams have more qualities going forward.
Therefore, my tip is: Double chance X2 & Over 1.5 goals!
