Europa League, Thursday, 13/03/2025 at 6:45 pm
A winning goal in the last second can be half the battle! AS Roma have fought their way out of a long crisis and now want to make it to the Europa League quarterfinals at all costs. Can I give the fans high hopes with my Athletic Bilbao AS Roma betting tip?
The Romans are taking a narrow lead with them, which is definitely an advantage given that they don’t like to play on Spanish soil. Besides, word has got around in the eternal city that the current opponent is really strong at home.
I think both teams are about the same strength, but I have decided on the “double chance 1X” with a maximum of three goals. Bilbao have won all their home games in the preliminary round, conceding just one goal – no, this is not an easy game for either team.
This is the third time the two have met this season, and the first two duels were pretty damn close. The home side need to score, while Roma can concentrate on playing it safe at the back.
There is no question that this game will be full of suspense, because both teams would actually be candidates for the round of the best eight. Extra time and penalty shootouts? In my opinion, neither is out of the question!
The starting position for Athletic Bilbao is clear: they absolutely must win, otherwise they are out. Our bookmakers with Apple Pay function are optimistic that exactly that is feasible, because the odds are 1.95.
On the other hand, the Romans bring their narrow lead with them, so they can cope with the odds of 4.00. What does that mean for the assessment of whether they will advance? Here, a 1.57 for the Italians meets a 2.35.
The draw could well be high. In the group stage, both split with a 1-1, and the first leg of the round of 16 could have ended in a draw. Therefore, the odds of 3.40 are also rather low.
AI Prediction Athletic Bilbao vs AS Rom: That’s what ChatGPT tips
It’s not an easy task for ChatGPT to venture into this match either. Nevertheless, the suggestions the AI provides me with for this second leg are once again anything but uninteresting.
For example, I am offered the 2-0 result bet, which would mean that Bilbao would advance directly. Since three of the four home wins for Bilbao were clear-cut and Roma have not won a single away game, this handicap victory could definitely pay off for you.
The game continues with a goalless draw at half-time. At home, Bilbao has not conceded in the first half, but nine out of 11 of AS’s games have featured goals before half-time. My conclusion: uncertain, it’s 50:50 here.
If there are less than 2.5 goals, you are in the lower AI risk range. With four goals from five away games, Roma have not exactly been conspicuous in attack, and I have already mentioned the strong defense of the home side. Therefore, “under 2.5 goals” could actually be a good bet.
Analysis: Athletic Bilbao vs AS Roma
Defying a setback, scoring the winning goal in the final second? It was an evening that suited AS Roma perfectly! The yellow-reds have made a first exclamation mark, they definitely want to make it to the quarter-finals.
The Italians had already caused a stir in the intermediate round, because Porto was anything but an easy opponent. They came out on top with a 1-1 and 3-2 scoreline. Basically, I would like to tell you right away: their own stadium is very helpful for this team.
1:1 against Bilbao (yes, they also met in the previous round), 1:0 against Dynamo Kiev, 3:0 against Braga, 2:0 against Eintracht Frankfurt and 3:2 against Porto, these results are impressive.
However, Roma has actually managed not to win away from home yet! They lost 0-1 to Elfsborg and Alkmaar, drew 1-1 with the Royale Union and Porto, and played 2-2 against Tottenham.
Odds Analysis
Will the Romans manage to pull up the bulwark? Every clean sheet would automatically be enough for them. Although they have never taken a clean sheet away from home, at the same time there has only been more than one goal conceded once. In this respect, the “Under 1.5 goals Bilbao” bet could pay off.
Betano spits out a 1.72, which would rule out a direct progression. At the same time, I can easily imagine the result being 1-0, with the odds here coming in at 6.40. But what I actually want to get at is:
A decision after extra time is realistic! Here, Betano even offers you double-digit odds of 10.5. If the Basques only come out on top after a penalty shootout at the end, the odds increase again to 12.5.
Athletic Bilbao vs. AS Roma: Trips to Spain can be painful
It took until the end of January for Roma to get their first away win in the league, but now they have four in a row. The dress rehearsal before the trip to Bilbao, namely, was a 1-0 win against Empoli.
But the fact that they are going to Spain at all is not a good omen. Two wins from the last twelve away games, clubs from the Primera Division are not exactly welcome.
What the fans will be all the more pleased to hear: their club has progressed in Europe the last nine times it has won the first leg. In this respect, Roma are not traveling to Bilbao with nothing but butterflies in their stomachs, but they are definitely aware of the quality of their opponents.
Bilbao were naturally disappointed after the last-minute defeat, but are now focusing on their home strength. Four wins and only one goal conceded; in the group stage, only Viktoria Plzen scored in a 3-1 win at San Mames.
Bilbao relies on home strength
Eight wins from ten home games against Serie A teams, this fact fits perfectly with the current statistics in their own stadium. With Alkmaar, Pilsen, Slavia Prague and Elfsborg, the opponents in the current season were, however, logically not at AS level either.
But: in three European games, it is also noticeable that the Basques have not kept a clean sheet. They are also proving how strong they are at home in the league, where they are ranked fourth behind Real, Atletico and Barca.
Home defeats? Only one, and that was in the 1-0 defeat to Atletico at the end of August. The goal against? It came, as we know the Colchoneros, in injury time due to a counterattack.
This makes them the third-best home side in the league, and they have only conceded nine goals. Roma will certainly have read the national statistics of their upcoming opponents, and it certainly did not give them any joy.
Incidentally, Roma already have twelve different goal scorers in the Europa League, so they are not dependent on just one superstar. Eleven players have already scored for Bilbao, but Inaki Williams stands out with five goals.
Since he also scored against Roma in the first leg, he would be my first choice for a goal bet. Top provider Bet365 offers you odds of 3.50 for this, and some betting credits will also help you win here.
Incidentally, Inaki Williams’ brother Nico has also scored twice, with all four scorer points coming at home. It’s a shame that the “Any Williams will do” bet doesn’t exist!
My Athletic Bilbao AS Roma betting tip:
AS Roma face the extremely challenging task of holding on to a narrow lead in Bilbao – against one of the strongest home teams in Europe! The Basques are convincing in all competitions at San Mames, defending uncompromisingly.
I therefore cannot imagine that Roma, who have not won any of their away games in the Europa League, will pull off another victory. In addition, I have to praise the few goals conceded by the home side and at the same time recognize that the guests’ goal average is below 1.0.
In this respect, I am now combining the most important facts and therefore automatically come to the “double chance 1X”. I am not expecting a goal fest under any circumstances, so my final bet is:
Bilbao will not lose with a maximum of three goals!
