Copa del Rey, quarter-final, Tuesday, 04/02/2025 at 9:30 p.m.
My Atletico Madrid Getafe betting tip is a pretty clear-cut matter for me. The hosts have a lot more to offer in terms of play, but they will struggle against the visitors from the suburbs on Tuesday evening in the Copa del Rey.
The visitors are very aggressive in defense and difficult to break down. I expect a controlled quarter-final victory for Atletico in the end, but we shouldn’t see too many goals, which is why I’m adding the under 4.5 goals at Betway.
Atletico dropped points against Leganes and Villarreal, but after the 2-0 win against Mallorca, they are now just one point behind city rivals, who are top of the La Liga table. In general, we are seeing a strong season from the Colchoneros.
In addition to their promising position in the league, Atletico have qualified directly for the last 16 of the Champions League and on Tuesday, they could reach the semi-finals of the cup, with Diego Simeone’s team playing at home.
In the last round, we saw a clear 4-0 win against Elche after the unspectacular previous wins. I don’t expect such a clear result against Getafe. It is already the second encounter this season, the first being less than two months ago.
In the league first leg, we saw a 1-0 home win for the Rojiblancos. Alexander Sorloth was able to score the decisive goal in the match with just 18 shots.
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The odds in the top sports betting apps make it clear that Getafe (6.50) needs a day of cream to make it into the last four teams. Atletico (1.50) start as the clear favorites. At 4.00, you can bet that we won’t have a decision after 90 minutes.
If you are backing Atletico but just want to cover yourself for “getting through”, you could take the 1.18 odds for a combi ticket. Personally, however, I think the odds are much too low compared to the outright win odds.
And with a tight fixture schedule that will be supplemented by Champions League last-16 ties in a few weeks’ time, it’s important to save as many minutes as possible. Besides, I am convinced that Simeone and his team will need just 90 minutes to settle the score.
2:1 against Leverkusen, 4:1 against Salzburg and 2:0 against Mallorca, only the draw against Villarreal was a bit of a let-down. Overall, however, Atletico have only lost one game since October 27, the 0:1 at Leganes.
And the reason I’m resorting to an underbet for a change is the fact that the two best defensive lines in Spain will face each other. Atletico have only let in 14 goals and Getafe 17. But the big difference is in offense.
The Colchoneros have scored 37 goals, more than twice as many as their quarter-final opponents. In addition, Atletico are still unbeaten at home, while Getafe have conceded twice as many goals away from home.
Incidentally, under Simeone, Atletico has never lost to Getafe, and we are now talking about 26 duels, of which Atletico has won a whopping 21! If anyone can break the defensive bulwark, it’s the one who likes to “park the bus” himself.
Julian Alvarez, who came from Manchester City, has scored four goals in four cup games and has an almost identical goal scoring average in the premier league, is a clear asset to his team.
But I don’t want to go into goal scorer odds in great detail, as I expect a 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 result. If you combine exactly these three results as a multi-chance bet at Winamax, you can look forward to strong 2.30 odds.
Since we are likely to see a defensive battle, the three-result variant definitely appeals to me. As a new customer, you could approach this bet with no risk of loss. That’s because Winamax gives you freebet credit equal to your first deposit, up to €100.
Getafe is the second-most ineffectual offense in the league with 17 goals. Only Valladolid has scored even fewer goals. But beware!
The club has not been beaten in six games and thus in 2025, managed to snatch a point from Barca and record a 3-0 win at Real Sociedad.
Nevertheless, I see an away game at the Estadio Metropolitano as too difficult a hurdle with a home coach who has a fabulous record against Getafe and has currently managed to bring very consistent Leverkusen to its knees.
Conclusion: Atletico and Getafe have conceded the fewest goals in the league and also have allowed the fewest shots on target. As a big fan of over-goals, I dare to place an under-goals bet!
In the league, we saw a fairly low-scoring 1-0 win for Atletico in mid-December. Simeone has a fabulous record against Getafe, in fact, we have to speak of “favorite opponent” here.
Not only has he recorded the most victories against the team from the suburbs, but Getafe is also the team against which he has coached the most matches without losing a game.
Since the end of October, Atletico have only lost two games. Getafe are still unbeaten in 2025, but have conceded twice as many goals away from home and will not be able to stop the hosts’ broad offensive for 90 minutes!
My Atletico Madrid Getafe betting tip: Atletico Win & Under 4.5 Goals.