FC Augsburg – Union Berlin betting tip
The end is already in sight! With the 29th matchday, the Bundesliga finally enters the home straight of the 2023/24 season.
While the question of the new champions has already been settled (Bayer Leverkusen), the decisions in the basement of the table and in the battle for the European Cup places are still to be made. And the match between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin certainly plays an important role in this respect.
After all, FCA is still speculating on sixth place. Union, on the other hand, could probably pull clear of the relegation zone with an away win.
My Augsburg Union Berlin betting tip focuses on two basic assumptions:
Firstly, I assume that the special starting position will lead to a doggedly fought game. Secondly, I’m categorically ruling out a high-scoring exchange of blows and am targeting the “Under 2.5 goals” at Happybet (odds 1.90).
Of course, I won’t withhold the relevant statistics from you, just as I won’t withhold numerous alternative bets, which can be derived not least from the odds.
Because I have to say one thing straight away: Just like the big betting providers, I also see one or two question marks behind FC Augsburg’s role as favorites.
In my Augsburg Union Berlin prediction, I would like to question in general whether FCA should really be taken seriously as a European Cup candidate
The prediction of the betting providers?
To be honest, the Augsburg Union Berlin odds surprised me a little. I simply wouldn’t have expected top bookmakers like Crazybuzzer Sportwetten to place an Augsburg home win at odds clearly above 2.00.
As I’ll show later, the away statistics only suggest a strong performance by Berlin to a limited extent.
Overall, however, the odds can be interpreted in such a way that the bookmakers have kept a larger back door open with the draw odds of around 3.50. This is roughly on a par with the away win odds.
If I had to choose a 1×2 bet, the draw would actually be my bet of choice
Analysis: Augsburg vs Union Berlin
Currently, opinions are divided on FC Augsburg. With 36 points after 28 games played, Augsburg are certainly not playing an outstanding season.
However, six points behind the weakening Eintracht Frankfurt, Bayern can still dream of sixth place.
The fact that FCA have scored just one point in their last two games fits the picture all too well. Offensively, Augsburg have only impressed to a limited extent recently.
In three of the last four competitive matches, they have never scored more than one goal. In addition, the three goals against Wolfsburg came against Wolves who were playing short-handed.
I therefore don’t think Augsburg can score more than one goal against Union Berlin either. If the Fuggerstädter stay under 1.5 goals on Friday evening, there are strong odds of around 1.70 to collect
However, I don’t expect the Berliners to score a lot of goals either. In 4 of the last 5 Bundesliga games, Union have failed to score a single goal.
The 0:0 against Frankfurt and the 0:1 against Bayer Leverkusen are representative of the current style of play of the capital team.
In fact, only 1. FC Köln has currently scored fewer goals (23) than Union Berlin (sorry to all Cologne fans).
As a risk bet, the “Under 0.5 goals Union Berlin” for the game in Augsburg is a good bet (odds at 2.85). However, I personally believe that the surprise team of the previous season will score at least one goal.
In fact, I have a 1:1 in mind as a result tip, which is currently listed at odds of around 6.80.
Odds analysis
In any case, a closer look at the odds brings the 1:1 into focus.
The odds for the classic “Both teams score” at oddsmaker Oddset, which currently has the lucrative Oddset bonus on offer, are not unusual with a value of around 1.70.
At the same time, the “Under 2.5 goals in the match” and the counter bet “Over 2.5 goals” are at an almost identical level of around 1.90, whereby the low-scoring bet is normally quoted much higher.
This inevitably results in a 1:1 draw. I also have a suitable half-time bet up my sleeve. With the “draw at half-time” you are offered strong odds of around 2.10.
And a 0:0 at the break is not unrealistic given the starting position
There is little to suggest that Berlin will win away from home
FC Augsburg’s home record really doesn’t blow me away. Of the first 14 Bundesliga home games, the Fuggerstädter won just five.
However, since only three games were lost, the draw counter skyrockets to an impressive six. Only Frankfurt and Bochum have currently collected more home draws (seven each).
However, Union Berlin cannot counter this statistic. In fact, the Berliners have the away statistics of a relegation candidate. They have already lost nine away games.
With three draws, they have only managed two wins. That’s another reason why I don’t have a Berlin success in Augsburg on my radar
A goal festival would come out of nowhere
As if on cue, the direct comparison does not fall out of the statistical framework either.
The balance between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin is quite even after a total of 15 matches played.
Augsburg currently have five wins. Union have only won three matches. A total of seven matches ended in a draw
There were no surprises in this respect in the first half of the current season. On matchday 12, the two teams drew 1-1 in the capital.
Overall, it is noticeable that Augsburg and Union have mostly held back from scoring goals in direct comparisons up to this point. After the 15 duels, just 31 goals have been scored.
Fittingly: In four of the last five meetings, the bet “Under 2.5 goals” would have led to success in each case.
Also interesting for all those who have their sights set on a Berlin away win: To date, Union have yet to record a single win in Augsburg.
In six away games, the Berliners have only managed two draws and have lost four times.
Even the “Double Chance X2” at odds of around 1.70 should therefore be considered very carefully
My Augsburg Union tip:
Augsburg victory? Only with one eye closed! Union success? The statistics speak against it! Draw? My favorite, but only with stomach ache!
As you can see, a classic 1×2 tip for the match between Augsburg and Union Berlin is a solid shaky candidate.
Accordingly, I have focused on a goal bet, which is not a shot in the dark given the starting position. A high-scoring game to kick off matchday 29 would really surprise me.
Accordingly, my Augsburg Union Berlin betting tip is: There will be less than 2.5 goals in total
