Bundesliga matchday 13, Saturday, 07.12.2024 at 15:30
Another cup season to forget for FC Bayern, who were knocked out at home to Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday evening. The defeat was triggered by Manuel Neuer’s early red card. Despite being outnumbered, Munich still played a good game.
In the league, the number one is back in the box, but Harry Kane will still be missing. Nevertheless, I expect a reaction from the record champions, which will be felt by the stumbling Heidenheim side.
In my Bayern Heidenheim betting tip, I have opted for Bayern to win in both halves. The right odds are waiting at Merkur Bets and the amount is impressive.
Admittedly, Bayern’s goal rush has often failed to materialize in recent weeks and now it should work with a win in both halves against Heidenheim? I’m convinced of that.
First of all, Vincent Kompany’s team are playing at home again and don’t have to face PSG, Dortmund or Leverkusen, but Heidenheim, a team that has lost six games in a row on German soil.
The oddsmakers’ forecast
The defeat against Leverkusen was no doubt a dampener, but Interwetten are certain that we’ll see a completely different game on Saturday afternoon, giving the hosts odds of 1.12 to win.
Heidenheim have odds of 20.0, while the draw (9.50) is also in the double-digit range. Incidentally, Interwetten is currently offering free credit of up to 100 euros. There is nothing suitable to use it on the 1X2 market. Does the AI have a brilliant idea?
KI prediction Bayern vs. Heidenheim: ChatGPT
After three poor results, ChatGPT expects a more spectacular match from FCB, the AI sees little risk for the “Over 3.5 goals” bet. I can underline the bet, even without Kane Bayern should get some top chances against the susceptible Heidenheimers.
The variant that gets the attribution “medium risk” is a bit wilder. In addition to a Bayern win, a goal from Joshua Kimmich is added to the combination. The bet doesn’t appeal to me, but I know what the AI is thinking.
The six-man hasn’t scored a single competitive goal this season and hasn’t scored in a direct duel against Heidenheim. So much for the simple numbers.
In the absence of Kane and no goal against Leverkusen, we should see a more attacking approach against a struggling Heidenheim. In addition, Kimmich sometimes takes the dangerous free-kicks and could also be the penalty deputy for the Englishman.
He has converted all seven penalties from the spot in his career, most recently at club level against Schalke in 2022/23. The combination of the AI results in a 5.60. ChatGPT also suggests a goalscorer rate for the high risk tip.
Munich loanee Paul Wanner scores against Bayern, here we can expect a 6.50. In the absence of Marvin Pieringer, he is even more in demand, had five goals against Chelsea, but the bet against defensively stable Bayern is clearly too hot for me.
Analysis: Bayern vs. Heidenheim
I’m actually already leaning towards the bet that both teams won’t score a goal. Before the 1-1 draw against Dortmund, Munich had kept a clean sheet for seven games in a row.
BVB remained at 0.60 goals and even against Leverkusen, Bayern were able to keep the Werkself out of their own box for almost an entire game despite being outnumbered, but FCB were still the better team in terms of numbers.
A strong cross from Alejandro Grimaldo and a good header from Nathan Tella made the difference in the end.
Kompany has definitely managed to bring stability to Bayern’s play. Offensively, however, it’s often not enough. After all, Bayern have only scored one goal four times in their last six matches, none against Leverkusen and Kane scored twice from the spot in the 3-0 win over Augsburg.
In terms of numbers, however, Bayern are still top of the league, with 229 shots on goal, the best in the league, followed by Leverkusen with 213 shots, after which nothing comes for a long time. 93 shots directly on goal are also number one.
In addition, the record champions’ offense puts most of its shots directly on goal with 40.9 percent. In terms of simple numbers, Bayern is also number one with 37 goals and eight goals conceded.
Rating Analysis
This looks quite different for the visitors. Only the two bottom-placed teams Kiel and Bochum have conceded more goals, while Heidenheim have slipped to 16th place following their sequence of defeats and have already had to fish 24 balls out of the net.
Heidenheim are struggling in attack following the departure of all their key players, including Tim Kleindienst, Jan-Niklas Beste and Werder loanee Eren Dinkci. Only a few teams have scored less than 15 goals
And now the loss of top scorer Pieringer, who scored four goals and provided three assists in the league alone. Against Chelsea in the Conference Legaue (0:2) and most recently against Frankfurt (0:4), the otherwise strong Heidenheim side failed to score.
With four defeats at home, 1. FCH already has almost as many as in the entire last season, when it was five, and in 2024/25 it is already four. With regard to the market that Bayern will win to zero, we are already moving towards 1.90 odds!
Bayern vs Heidenheim odds: Heidenheim with many goals conceded
I’ve already mentioned Heidenheim’s poor record in recent games. The 2-0 win against Hearts in the Conference League provided a temporary high, but then the mood was dampened again with the 3-1 defeat to Wolfsburg.
In five of the last six defeats, at least two balls have crossed the Heidenheim goal line, with 14 goals conceded in the last four competitive matches.
I’m really pessimistic that they’ll be able to score against Bayern, even if they had to take a hard knock after the cup exit.
How will Kompany solve the striker problem this time?
Kane out, Pieringer out, both teams with center forward worries. The home side definitely have more alternatives in attack, especially in terms of quality.
Against Dortmund, Müller took over the Kane position, against Leverkusen Kompany put Musiala up top. Bayern didn’t manage much when they were outnumbered, but they played much better at BVB
I think Kompany will make another change. No optimal solution has yet been found without the superstar with the number nine.
His opposite number, Frank Schmidt, who has been on the sidelines at Heidenheim since 2007 and has turned them from an amateur club into a European Cup team, is also currently tinkering with the line-up.
In fact, we’ve seen seven different starting line-ups in the last eight matches.
Bayern vs Heidenheim, we haven’t had many duels, but it’s never been easy for Bayern so far. The teams faced each other for the first time in the 2019 DFB Cup quarter-finals.
Back then, Bayern also struggled with an early red card, trailed 2-1 at one point and conceded an equalizer after leading 4-2, but were ultimately able to advance to the semi-finals with a spectacular 5-4 win.
In the last Bundesliga season, Munich won 4-2 at home, and the team from the small town in Baden-Württemberg finally managed their first coup in the reunion, a 3-2 win.
The underdogs managed to turn the game around from 2-0 down at the break.
My Bayern Heidenheim tip:
Bayern have not managed easy victories against Heidenheim in the past. Schmidt is a respected coach and knew exactly how to set up his boys to deliver a good game against the record champions.
However, Heidenheim are going through a difficult phase at the moment, four league defeats in a row, not even scoring in the last two competitive games, the stability has been lost.
I expect a reaction from FCB, who have consistently delivered stable performances, have gone seven of their last nine matches without conceding a goal and, even without Kane, are clearly superior to Heidenheim, who are currently in a slump.
This should be an uncomfortable afternoon for the visitors, whose inexperience with the double-header is clear to see.
My Bayern Heidenheim prediction: Bayern win both halves
