Bundesliga matchday 13, Saturday, 07.12.2024 at 15:30
VfL Bochum urgently need points. The points gained in the first game under new head coach Dieter Hecking against champions Leverkusen were followed by two defeats in which the club from the Ruhr region did not even score.
Now it’s back to the Ruhrstadion, where VfL, who are still winless, have at least collected two points. I doubt that it will be enough for the first three-pointer at the weekend, as the visitors from the Weser are too stable compared to their opponents.
My Bochum Werder Bremen betting tip is therefore that Bremen will take at least one point and that it will be a pretty cheerful match with at least two goals due to Bochum’s pressure situation! I put the bet together at Bwin:
The mood in the international break was already much better for Bochum, after all, they managed a draw against Bayer Leverkusen straight after the change of coach and it was seen as the start of something big.
I was still quite cautious and already suspected that the next setback would come in Stuttgart. The 0:1 against Augsburg was even more bitter. A defeat against a team that is also at the bottom, now already 13 points away.
The oddsmakers’ forecast
A team that has not won a game so far is rightly only an underdog going into the next league match. Bochum have been given odds of 3.05 by NEO.bet, while Werder Bremen’s official sports betting partner assigns the Green-Whites odds of 2.25.
Those who opt for the draw can pick up 3.55. Betting on a single result is a bit too hot for me. After all, Werder have a cup game from Tuesday in their bones. The “Double Chance X2” in combination with over 1.5 goals, on the other hand, is very lucrative.
KI prediction Bochum vs Werder Bremen: This is what ChatGPT
We asked the AI for three odds at three different risk levels. I like the low-risk bet, here ChatGPT has selected the goal of both teams, which is also high on the list alongside my final bet.
However, the final conviction has been lacking, as VfL have not been able to push a ball over the line in the past two games and Werder have hardly let anything get in the way in recent games.
Or can we even expect a shower of goals? The artificial intelligence definitely has it on the cards, with over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.50 value. After all, the last match ended 4:1 for Werder.
We also need a few more goals for the AI’s high-risk bet. Here ChatGPT foresees a handicap win (-1) for Werder. Given the stable performances of the Werder defense and the vulnerability of VfL, this is not a bad choice.
Bochum have lost six of their last eight league games by more than one goal. However, Werder haven’t been winning non-stop, with four wins in the league so far and only against Wolfsburg were they two goals ahead.
At Interwetten, we are offered a whopping 4.20 odds for the bet. However, I rate a 3:2 or 2:1 for the visitors as more realistic and cannot really recommend the bet.
Analysis: Bochum vs. Werder Bremen
High odds are not my profession anyway, my motto is: Find odds just above the 1.50 mark, to which I can attribute a very high probability of occurrence. I want to give you as many successful bets as possible.
What Bochum and Bremen have in common is the number of goals scored after twelve games, namely 43, which is 3.58 on average. Werder have scored around twice as often as VfL, who have the weakest offense alongside St. Pauli with their ten goals.
The 33 goals conceded are also the weakest value. Apart from the point against Leverkusen, the only other point was against Kiel.
Who knows how the season would have gone if Shuto Machino had not scored the equalizer for the Storks in the 89th minute? A three-pointer like that would definitely have given them a boost.
Now they face Kiel’s former coach Ole Werner and Bremen, SVW have only lost every third game and have remained unbeaten away from home for a long time. They recently dropped their first clean sheets against Gladbach and Frankfurt.
Rating Analysis
The Gladbach game was one of the few matches in which Werder put in a really weak performance, with the final score being 1:4, while we hardly saw any dangerous scenes in the 0:1 against Frankfurt.
Stuttgart were also unable to create many noteworthy actions in the Bremen penalty area last Saturday. Ermedin Demirovic took advantage of one of the few mistakes and scored the equalizer shortly before the end.
On the other hand, Werder kept a clean sheet in the cup match against Darmstadt, a reunion with former coach Florian Kohfeldt, under whom Werder initially played good soccer but were relegated to the second division at the end of the era.
The Lilies coach still received a positive reception at the Weserstadion, but was unable to put his team on the scoresheet and conceded a standard goal in stoppage time after a good match by the second division side.
The game suits Werder Bremen this season, a very mature performance, patiently sticking to the match plan, pushing for goal in moderation without completely exposing themselves at the back.
A late goal is something Werder can do, especially away from home, in five of the six matches Bremen scored in the second half, the corresponding odds are 1.55, a 1.77 for the club from the north to score the last goal of the game. At Interwetten you can also expect 11 euros free credit.
Bochum vs Werder Bremen odds: Werder better with and without the ball
The 2.25 for Werder is definitely not wrong, but as I said, not my odds spectrum. However, Werder has advantages over Bochum both offensively and defensively.
It’s not just the number of goals scored and goals conceded that shows us that. Bremen have created more chances over the season and conceded far fewer goals.
After Kiel, Bochum is the team that has allowed their opponents to score the most goals (196). Werder are in midfield in this category, ahead of Leipzig.
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Hecking has to rebuild
Let’s take a look at the teams’ personnel situation. The long-term absence of Myron Boadu is of course a bitter pill for VfL.
The striker on loan from AS Monaco is still the top scorer with his two goals alongside Matus Bero and Dani de Wit, although he has missed half of the games.
In addition to the number nine, Jakov Medic is another player missing on loan. The central defender, who joined from Ajax, was in the starting eleven in ten of the twelve games.
The situation is somewhat better for Bremen. In addition to home-grown Keke Topp, Felix Agu is missing. The young striker has only come off the bench so far and Agu has not been a regular starter either. Werner also has a suitable replacement in Derrick Köhn.
A look at the head-to-head duels is also a must. Werder won the last encounter on matchday 34 of the 2023/24 season 4:1, two goals short of reaching the Conference League.
At the same time, Bochum had to go into relegation with the defeat. The teams drew 1-1 in the first leg, with a last-minute equalizer from Niklas Stark securing the point for the Green-Whites.
Bremen celebrated two wins a season earlier, a 2-0 and 3-0 victory. In recent times, those were the only four games. With Torsten Frings, Tim Wiese and Co. in the starting eleven, it was the fifth last encounter.
Frings, Mesut Özil and Claudio Pizarro scored Werder to win 3-2.
My Bochum Werder Bremen tip:
The “double chance X2” is practically pre-programmed with only two Bochum points in the account. Although Werder have only won one of their last five games, they have delivered much more stable performances than VfL.
Bremen also made it through to the cup quarter-finals during the week. That gives them a boost. Bochum, on the other hand, have been without a goal for two games and will have to continue to hunt for goals without Boadu.
I reckon that the more settled visitors will travel home with at least one point, Bochum will throw everything into it to get a three-pointer and we’ll see a few goals as a result.
My Bochum Werder Bremen prediction: Double chance X2 & Over 1.5 goals!
