FC Bayern Munich – VfL Wolfsburg betting tip
On Wednesday, FC Bayern wanted to become the second German club after BVB to reach the Champions League final. Up until the 88th minute, Munich were leading 1:0 in the second leg at Real Madrid.
Above all, an outstanding Manuel Neuer, who played his best game since his return from a complicated leg fracture, kept the German record champions in the game. But it was a blunder by the German number 1 that brought the Whites back into the game.
When referee Marciniak intervened in the game at the end and blew the whistle prematurely and without justification for an action that had led to the visitors’ supposed 2:2 equalizer, FCB’s dramatic exit was sealed.
In the end, the Spaniards deserved to reach the CL final thanks to their dominance and the majority of chances in the second leg, sealing Bayern’s first title-less season since 2011/12.
In the final spurt of the 2023/24 season in the Bundesliga and in the last two games under coach Thomas Tuchel, FCB still have to face Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim. The only thing on the cards here is to limit the damage and secure the runners-up spot.
In the last home game of the current season, I think the hosts will get at least one point and I’m playing the bet “Double chance 1/x & both score” in my Bayern vs Wolfsburg betting tip at odds of 1.75 with provider Interwetten
The forecast of the betting providers?
As second in the table, Munich are unsurprisingly the clear favorites in the Bayern vs Wolfsburg prediction. VfL are ten places and 32 points behind FCB.
However, both teams have conceded the same number of defeats in the second half of the season (6). Despite this, you can only get odds of between 1.33 and 1.40 for a home win with the bookies.
On the other hand, you can bet seven or eight times the odds on a three-goal win for the visitors. If you have confidence in the underdog, for example a narrow handicap victory (e.g. “Victory VfL with HC+2”), you can get help from the bookies here:
Analysis: Bayern vs Wolfsburg
The Champions League had shown that the link between the record champions and Thomas Tuchel can bear fruit after all. The coach had set the team up perfectly twice against Arsenal and also twice against Real Madrid.
Here, Munich adopted a defensive and control-oriented approach that paid off. Although the visitors were unable to conceal their lack of pace on Wednesday, they were on course for the final for a long time.
In the end, however, three individual errors against the Whites – two by Kim in the first leg and one by Neuer in the second – made the difference. The aim now is to finish the league season in style.
FCB only did the bare minimum when they visited Stuttgart last matchday and curiously scored one goal in the first half without creating any real chances. In the second half, however, mistakes also led to defeat
The 3:1 defeat at VfB was the seventh loss in this Bundesliga season. 25 points after 15 second-round matchdays means the weakest Bundesliga second half of the season in 17 years.
One of the main problems is to be found in the defense. The record champions have conceded 41 goals after 32 Bundesliga games. The last time they conceded that many was in the 1995/96 season.
Since matchday 19, the team has conceded 25 goals and has only managed one clean sheet in 14 Bundesliga games. On the other side, the Reds have the best offense with 90 goals.
However, their lead over third place and Stuttgart has shrunk to two points. Missing against Wolfsburg are the injured Boey, Buchmann, Guerreiro, Sarr, Coman and Gnabry
Quota analysis
The bookmakers are expecting a few goals in the Bayern vs Wolfsburg preview. There are only odds of just over 1.30 for more than 2.5 goals. The situation is slightly different in the “Both teams to score” betting market.
On the one hand, Bayern have scored four times in their last six home games against Wolfsburg. On the other hand, the Wolves have only failed to score once in their last seven BL matches.
At Intertops, there are odds of 1.56 if no keeper leaves the pitch with a clean sheet on Sunday. The bet becomes much more lucrative in conjunction with the Intertops betting bonus.
Munich have won 16 of their last 18 competitive matches against Lower Saxony. 11 of these victories were by at least a two-goal margin. If this streak continues, a handicap bet on the home side makes sense
Wolves banish the spectre of relegation
For a long time, VfL Wolfsburg’s form under coach Niko Kovac was on a steep downward curve this season. It was only in the final period under Ralph Hasenhüttl, when staying in the league was at stake, that the team managed to turn the corner.
Last weekend’s 3-0 win at home to Darmstadt was the first time this season that the team had celebrated three consecutive victories. In six games under the new coach, VfL have picked up four wins and twelve points.
That is enough for third place in this period. In the last 22 BL games under the previous coach, a total of only three wins were achieved.
The Wolves also went three of their six games under Hasenhüttl without conceding a goal. This means they conceded just as many times as they did in the first 26 matchdays under Kovac.
Can VfL still jump on the European Cup bandwagon?
Wolfsburg are now eight points clear of the relegation places thanks to their recent run of success. Having secured relegation, the team can now play with more freedom.
Curiously, the club can now also achieve its goal of “international business” in the final spurt. Eighth place in the table, which may entitle the team to play in the European Cup, is now just three points away.
However, VfL have celebrated just four wins away from home in 16 attempts (3U, 9N). Their record in the second half of the season is also still negative, with four wins and six defeats (5U).
In the Allianz Arena, the visitors will only be without the injured Svanberg and Nmecha.
Bayern are a fearful opponent for Wolfsburg. In 60 duels, the club from Lower Saxony have only come away victorious four times. The Wolves celebrated all four victories at home.
This means that VfL are still without a win in Munich. In 30 home games against Wolfsburg, the record champions have only dropped points on two occasions (28S, 2U). In the history of the Bundesliga, no other club has hosted VfL as often as FCB without ever losing
The Reds have also scored at least one goal in each of their last 31 BL matches against the Green-Whites (88 goals in total). That is also a record in the German top flight.
FC Bayern’s last defeat against the club from the Volkswagen city dates back to January 2015 (1:4).
My Bayern Wolfsburg tip:
Following their Champions League exit, the big question for Bayern now is how to finish the Bundesliga season? Only the players can answer this question on the pitch over the next two weekends.
However, I think that FCB will at least want to salvage the runners-up title somehow. If Leverkusen also win the cup, they would at least be in the Supercup next season.
Fittingly, the Wolves will be the guests at the Allianz Arena on Sunday. Munich enjoy playing against no other opponent at home as much as they do against the Wolves. However, I think the visitors can score a goal and possibly even a point.
So I’m backing my bet with the “double chance”. In the end, my Bayern Wolfsburg prediction is: Double chance 1/x & both score!
