Benfica Lisbon – Leverkusen Tip Champions League, Matchday 4 on Wednesday, 05.11.2025 at 9:00 p.m.
It’s crazy how the Werkself couldn’t even create a decent scoring opportunity against the German record champions at the weekend.
But while at the end of the 2025/26 season, no one would really blame B04 for not winning the championship, an early exit from the UCL league phase would be much more tragic for their own fans.
According to my Benfica Lisbon Leverkusen tip, Wednesday’s game promises to be a turbulent one, if only because the Portuguese are also in desperate need of points.
From a purely statistical point of view, the best argument for my Benfica Lisbon Leverkusen tip for a Portuguese victory is actually the Werkself coach – even if that sounds a bit cynical at first glance.
But the numbers speak for themselves: Bayer Leverkusen coach Kasper Hjulmand is still waiting for his first victory in the Champions League.
In nine games so far, his teams have conceded a whopping 32 goals – an average of 3.6 per game, the highest of any coach with at least nine appearances in this competition.
So if you believe the bare facts, you’ll understand why my confidence is clearly leaning towards Benfica this time.
Benfica – Leverkusen Prediction & Bets
My personal Benfica Lisbon Leverkusen tip, which concerns the individual performance of a single player, revolves around a goal from Vangelis Pavlidis, for which you can currently expect odds of 2.25 at our test winner Bet365.
The Greek has scored 5 goals in his last 4 Champions League appearances at the Estadio da Luz – that’s a strong haul.
A Benfica win & Vangelis to score is the first combination bet that comes to mind, with significantly higher odds of around 3.00. After all, these are the two hottest tips I have in store and they can be combined wonderfully on the betting slip!
What you need to consider when betting on Benfica vs. Leverkusen
- Benfica has lost only 1 of 6 European Cup games against Bayer Leverkusen and is undefeated at home against B04.
- Jose Mourinho’s only meeting with Leverkusen: 2022/23 EL semi-final with Roma, 1-0 on aggregate, both games without conceding.
- Benfica have lost their last 5 Champions League games – their longest run of this kind since 2017/18.
- Leverkusen conceded 7 goals in their 7-2 defeat to PSG – only the second time in 284 European games that they have conceded 7 goals (the first time was a 7-1 defeat to Barcelona in 2012).
- Benfica and Ajax are the only teams with 3 defeats in this CL season; Benfica previously lost all of their first four games in 2017/18 and 2023/24.
- Leverkusen have suffered the most counterattacks in this CL season (20), with only Napoli (15.3s) and Frankfurt (14.9s) having longer open sequences.
- Coach Kasper Hjulmand is still completely winless in this competition after 9 Champions League games.
Benfica Lisbon – Leverkusen: AI tip & odds analysis
Our data model has settled on a Benfica Lisbon AI prediction that differs only minimally from my own prediction.
Leverkusen: Under 1.5 goals at odds of around 1.50 is confident in the Portuguese team’s strong defense. Mourinho’s team has won its last three competitive games without conceding a goal.
Those who like it a little more aggressive are also recommended to bet on a Benfica win & over 2.5 goals – our AI insists on this additional condition because it considers a 3-0 or 2-1 result to be much more realistic than a 2-0 win.
It’s not a terrible suggestion, but I personally think a 2-0 result is the most likely of all.
Benfica to score in both halves is quite lucrative at odds of around 2.75 for a mathematical 50:50 bet. Consequently, I attest that this recommendation from our digital betting friend has significant value bet potential.
Money back on a draw – I also like Benfica at first glance. However, since I consider a home win to be much more likely than a draw, I would not hedge my bets with this betting option, but instead go all in with a home win bet.
The odds would then be 2.00 instead of 1.50 in the event of success.
The best odds for Benfica Lisbon vs. Leverkusen
If you bet on Benfica Lisbon, Bet365 offers 2.05 – decent odds for a home game that they really have to win. The probability of this happening is around 47 percent, so they are slight favorites, but with a noticeable risk.
A draw is at 3.50, giving it a probability of around 28 percent. Given the situation—both teams desperately need points—a draw is possible, but it doesn’t really help either of them.
Leverkusen also gets 3.50. For a team that is not exactly in top form at the moment, these are not very attractive odds – in my opinion, there are better offers out there!
Overall, the Benfica Leverkusen odds point to an explosive game between two teams that have to give their all to get the three points.
Benfica vs Leverkusen match analysis:
If Benfica sticks to its typical, calm build-up play, it could really put Leverkusen under pressure.
The Portuguese love to build patiently and get into the final third via many passes – exactly what Leverkusen has struggled with time and again in this Champions League season.
No other team has had to endure more “build-up attacks” so far: a total of 20, eleven of which came on matchday three alone.
In addition, Leverkusen’s opponents have an average of 14.7 seconds of possession in open sequences – only Napoli and Frankfurt have more.
This shows that it is possible to play longer passing sequences against the Werkself without being immediately disrupted.
Benfica will go into this game with a lot of confidence. They have already shown in the past that they can cause Leverkusen problems: in six direct duels, they have only suffered one defeat, with two wins and three draws.
The Portuguese feel particularly comfortable at home, where they are even unbeaten against Leverkusen (one win, two draws).
Everything suggests that Benfica will try to control the game and wear Leverkusen down with controlled possession.
If they play their combination game cleanly, the Germans could quickly reach their limits in Lisbon.
Benfica Lisbon form check
Things have been anything but smooth for Benfica on the European stage so far. Under José Mourinho, who took over in September, they have suffered three defeats in three Champions League games – two of them under his leadership.
This means that the Portuguese are already three points behind in the battle for the top 24 places.
In the league, however, things are looking much more stable: the 3-0 win against Vitoria de Guimaraes at the weekend was their 10th league game in a row without defeat (seven wins, three draws).
At home, Benfica are also a little more solid again, unbeaten in four games (three wins, one draw) after previously losing to Qarabag there.
The team is therefore showing a clear discrepancy between their domestic and international form. Things are going well in the league, but they are lacking fluency in Europe.
Due to injury, Mourinho will continue to be without Bruma and Amar Dedić, two players who could provide pace and defensive stability.
Nevertheless, Benfica has enough quality to get going if they can replicate their home form on the international stage.
Leverkusen form check
Leverkusen got off to a solid start in the Champions League before their form took a significant downturn. After draws against PSV and Copenhagen, a 7-2 defeat to PSG was a bitter setback that shook the team to its core.
It was only the second time in the club’s history that the Werkself conceded seven goals in a European cup game – and at the same time as many as in the entire league phase of the previous season combined.
Another heavy defeat followed at the weekend with a 3-0 loss to Bayern. In their last five competitive games, they have recorded three wins and two defeats, with only one game without conceding a goal. So defense is currently the big problem.
Added to this are personnel concerns: Robert Andrich is missing after his red card against PSG, and Equi Fernández is out with injury. Two central building blocks in midfield who should provide balance.
Leverkusen are almost always dangerous in attack, but their last game was the first since April in which they failed to score.
Overall, the team is in a bit of a slump, especially defensively. The Werkself urgently need a win to regain the ease they had in recent months.
