Copa America, Group C, Tuesday, 02.07.2024 at 03:00
On the last matchday of Group C of the Copa America 2024, everything is still possible when Bolivia and Panama face each other.
Well, at least for the Canaleros. Because the Tiahuanacos are as good as out after just two games, barring a miracle.
With zero points and a goal difference of minus seven, they would need a big win in their final group game – assuming the USA lose to Uruguay at the same time
Since that is as unlikely as a train journey in Germany without incident, it is more likely that their opponents from Panama will be hoping to progress.
Because with a win, the team could overtake the US boys. Great encouragement: they recently won a game against Bolivia!
However, the team is missing an important player, which is why my Bolivia Panama betting tip assumes that the favorites will have an advantage, but not necessarily a win
The forecast of the betting providers?
Ranked 85th will meet the 45th in the FIFA world rankings. So the Copa America and the 2024 European Championship will still feature matches between the smaller nations.
But that doesn’t mean there are no clear favorites. If we look at the Bolivia Panama odds, we find that the Canaleros are clearly the better side.
Even a win with at least a two-goal difference is given odds of around 2.80 by Bet-at-Home Sportwetten.
Analysis: Bolivia vs Panama
One reason for this is Bolivia’s completely disappointing performance in this tournament so far. They recently went down without a sound against Uruguay (0:5).
The first group game against the USA, before which they were secretly hoping to pick up a point, was also disappointing
The situation is somewhat different for the Marea Roja. After their dramatic victory over the United States, all doors are suddenly open again for Panama.
However, the 2:1 victory, in which they were outnumbered for a long time, came at a price. Adalberto Carrasquilla was sent off shortly before the end.
Without their playmaker in midfield, coach Thomas Christiansen’s team are likely to find it harder than many might have thought
Quota analysis
Before kick-off, we find odds of around 1.80 for Panama to score more than 1.5 goals. However, the odds are just as high if this hurdle is overcome.
Happybet, on the other hand, considers the question of the first goal to be easier to answer. The odds for the first goal by Panamae are around 1.50.
And what can La Verde do offensively? There is no clear trend here either. As the team is still waiting for its first goal in the tournament, the odds for a Bolivia goal are around 1.60.
Can Bolivia break the streak?
Antônio Carlos Zago has been in office since October 2023 and was brought to Bolivia in the hope of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.
On the other hand, the Brazilian should also make the team competitive outside of La Paz. Without the home advantage in the Bolivian heights, the team is often toothless.
They have already finished bottom of their group at the last three Copa Americas, failing to pick up a single point.
The last victory at this tournament for the Tiahuanacos dates back to June 2015! Since then, it’s been nothing but a beating
Panama without its playmaker
As already mentioned, the victory over the USA came at a high price. Carrasquilla is by far the most talented player in the Canaleros’ ranks.
To make matters worse, it can be assumed that the Bolivians will retreat deep into their own half. Creativity in attack is therefore needed.
However, Panama have already shown several times that they can do this. They scored three goals in two games against Costa Rica.
Some of the moves against the highly-favored Uruguay were also quite impressive. However, the Albiceleste will definitely need a helping hand to reach the quarter-finals
This is not the first time the two nations have faced each other. And especially not in the Copa America. The teams were already in the same group in 2016.
Back then, however, the constellation was different. On the first matchday, everything was theoretically possible for both teams, even though the group also contained the two eventual finalists, Chile and Argentina.
The Canaleros prevailed here 2:1. A pattern that is not unfamiliar. After all, they also won the two previous matches and the subsequent clash in August 2023.
In all four victories, Panama scored at least two goals against Bolivia. That gives us hope for a lively game, doesn’t it
My Bolivia Panama tip:
I’d be a little cautious. Even though La Verde probably have nothing left to play for, they want to bow out of this tournament with dignity.
The Panamanians have a tailwind after their recent win and a good chance of progressing, but the loss of Carrasquilla is likely to weigh heavily. I therefore expect a close match.
My Bolivia Panama betting tip is: The Canaleros will at least draw and there will be less than 2.5 goals scored
