NFL 2024/25: Broncos – Browns
While Cleveland is probably already thinking about the offseason, Denver could actually still make it to the 2024 NFL playoffs if they perform well.
But a win on Tuesday is essential for that. Meanwhile, my Broncos-Browns tip focuses primarily on the number of points, which I believe will be within narrow limits.
The Broncos, who we’ll call Denver or the guys from Colorado for a change, are going into this game as 5.5-point favorites. Interestingly, only against the Panthers this season was there a bigger spread in their favor in the markets.
At home, the Broncos are a force to be reckoned with, with an impressive average margin of +9.6 points per home game – currently the fifth-best in the NFL. However, they have only been able to play in front of their fans at Mile High Stadium twice in the last six games.
Do you think that their long-awaited return to their home stadium on Tuesday will make a difference?
Keep in mind that Denver’s recent point gains came against weaker defenses like Atlanta and Las Vegas. A grain of skepticism is definitely in order.
The over/under started the markets at 40.5 and then climbed to 41.5 points after Denver’s high-scoring performance in Week 12. But is that justified? The Browns defense is tough and has had extra time to prepare for the Broncos.
On the other hand, Denver’s defense is just as formidable: they rank third in “EPA allowed per play” and often blitz to put opposing QBs like Jameis Winston under pressure early on.
This means little time for long pass routes and rather tight, low-scoring games – just as we have already seen against teams like Kansas City or Pittsburgh. In any case, this is also my hottest Broncos Browns tip!
So all in all, two defensive machines are facing each other here, which promises to be a real low-scoring duel. The question of whether Denver can continue their winning streak is particularly exciting.
However, I am skeptical whether their offense will score “many” points against this Browns defensive line-up. It should be enough for a win, but even in the best case scenario, Bo Nix is unlikely to be able to score more than two touchdowns.
Last season there was already a game between the two franchises, which went to the Broncos 29-12 and was therefore characterized by strong defensive work.
That’s why I wouldn’t recommend any touchdown bets at the end of Week 13, as there is hardly a player who would be particularly recommended in light of the current Broncos Browns tip.
If the Broncos defense plays as rigorously as in their last home game against the Falcons, who only scored two field goals, then Cleveland could at least face a shootout in the first quarter.
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Conclusion: The defenses of both teams are likely to largely dominate the opposing offense.
It would therefore hardly surprise me if the NFL were to give us the lowest-scoring match of the day in the last game of Week 13.
However, I think the Broncos are a bit more dangerous with Bo Nix in the pocket moving forward. So if this is going to be a defensive battle, the home side will probably come out on top.
My primary Broncos Browns betting tip, though, is: Under 46.5 points!
