French Open in Paris, 2nd round, Thursday, 29.05.2024
Novak Djokovic made it through the first round of the French Open with ease. Only in the second round did the Serb have to take a detour via the tiebreak. Djokovic, who is still untitled in 2024, is still a long way from his top form.
He now faces Roberto Carballes Baena, a Spaniard who feels really comfortable on the red clay and has had a strong year so far, including reaching the final in Marrakesh. He should be able to keep up well in some phases, which is why I’m going for an over-match bet from Tipwin in my Djokovic Carballes Baena tip.
I had actually expected an even more dominant performance from Djokovic at the start of the tournament. His opponent Pierre-Hugues Herbert had previously had a weak clay court season and played a strong match, but the record Grand Slam winner was also vulnerable in phases.
A few days ago in Geneva, he already conceded a few points against Yannick Hanfmann, Tallon Griekspoor and Tomas Machac, the latter of whom was able to capitalize on numerous break chances. Hanfmann and Griekspoor had 18 opportunities.
Carballes Baena is definitely a different caliber than Herbert in round one. Nevertheless, the odds are again extremely high. Tipwin has a 1.02 for the most successful player of all time, a 13.0 for Carballes Baena.
With such an enormous difference, another three-set victory is expected, and a clear one at that. In my eyes, the odds are a little too far apart, which is why the overplay area is slipping into a hot area for us though.
Even for over 26.5 games, for which a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, for example, would be enough, 1.52 odds are waiting. Alongside Intertops and a few other betting providers, Tipwin is one of the few sites that still offers the over-under games market. Especially in games with such low favorite odds, even for the 3:0 for the Djoker only 1.32 is waiting, they are a good alternative.
I wouldn’t put it past him to win a few games on Thursday. Djokovic is probably more vulnerable than he has been for a long time. The defeats against Machac, Alejandro Tabilo in Rome and Luca Nardi in Indian Wells show that. He is still waiting for his first title in 2024
The veteran is not getting any younger. He celebrated his 37th birthday in Switzerland. He has already come up against Carballes Baena twice in his career, both times at a major, in the first round of New York 2019 and Melbourne 2023.
And Carballes Baena has already secured a few games on hard court, 27 in New York and only now is it time for a duel on the 31-year-old’s favorite surface. In the first round, he took Constant Lestienne out of the field, who hasn’t won a match on clay since 2022.
The performance should not be overrated, but nine breaks from 22 chances confirm the return skills of the Spaniard, who is ranked 34th in the return statistics by the ATP, just ahead of an Alexander Zverev, who is also more often on fast surfaces, though
The rating is calculated from the number of points won after the opponent’s first and second serve, how many breaks were made and how efficiently the break chances were dealt with.
If you would like to place a free bet on the match without having to make a deposit, you could take a look at Betano. After verification, a €20 free bet awaits you there, which can be used freely on all sports.
Betano is also one of the bookies with the largest selection of odds, and you should also check back from time to time during the European Championship. I can also recommend these European Championship betting providers for the European Championship:
My Djokovic Carballes Baena tip
Yes, Djokovic only needed three sets and only lost one service game to advance to the next round. Nevertheless, it was not a flawless performance that matches his performances in recent months.
But it is also clear that this is Djokovic complaining. After all, he reached the semi-finals in Melbourne, Monaco and Geneva. But he hasn’t won a title yet and in recent matches he has always been vulnerable in his service games and has also lost to three names who are not among the world’s best in recent months.
The 1.02 win rate is excessive in my eyes, but it opens up lucrative opportunities in the overmatch market. I definitely trust Carballes Baena to play a few strong sets with a few breaks on his favorite surface.
My Djokovic Carballes Baena tip: Over 26.5 games
