Bundesliga matchday 16, Friday, January 10, 2025 at 20:30
How important is today’s game for both teams, please? Not only do they have to start 2025 on the right foot, but they also have to put a rival at the top in its place.
It feels like the winner of this game will pick up six points. In my Dortmund Leverkusen betting tip, I’m banking on a strong performance from the “Werkself”. After all, the wave of injuries that hit BVB in the winter is worrying.
Pascal Groß will have to watch the game from the stands due to a red card suspension, while Süle and possibly even Sabitzer, Ryerson and Anton will also miss out due to health problems.
Under these circumstances, can BVB really prevent their first Bundesliga home defeat of the season this Friday evening?
If it wasn’t for BVB’s many absentees, I would actually be leaning more towards the hosts in my Dortmund Leverkusen betting tip for matchday 16.
The statistics speak for themselves: Bayer have won just once in their last nine Bundesliga away games at Borussia Dortmund, but have lost seven of them. No other team has inflicted so many away defeats on the Werkself since the start of the 2015/16 season!
Although the two teams drew 1-1 twice last season and Leverkusen came back from a goal down on both occasions, this record certainly sends shivers down the spine of B04 fans, doesn’t it?
If it weren’t for the injuries to the hosts, which make the situation much more difficult, I would rate Borussia as slight favorites.
The bookmakers’ forecast?
The general Dortmund Leverkusen betting odds reveal a remarkable balance in most betting apps.
The bookmakers see the “Werkself” slightly ahead with average odds of 2.45, but BVB is only slightly behind with average odds of 2.65. A draw, on the other hand, is priced at 3.60, reflecting the even strength of both teams.
It is therefore difficult to determine a favorite at all, as the values are in perfect balance almost everywhere.
KI prediction Dortmund vs Leverkusen: This is what ChatGPT
In the context of the Dortmund Leverkusen AI prediction I asked for, I find the high-risk tip suggested by the artificial intelligence quite exciting.
The odds for a “final score of 2:2” are rated at around 12.0, which is quite attractive, especially when you consider that, according to numerous experts, a draw and many goals are very possible.
Personally, I’m leaning more towards a 2:1 for Leverkusen, but this computer-generated Dortmund Leverkusen tip remains an interesting option given the potential sports betting payout and not exactly microscopic probability of occurrence.
“Over 3.5 goals in the match”, on the other hand, is less appealing to me. With odds of just 2.40 and the fact that the last four head-to-head matches have not even exceeded the over-2.5-goal mark, I would rather keep my hands off it.
I’m also skeptical about the supposedly safe bet “Over 2.5 goals in the match”. Even if it is possible, the odds of 1.58 are simply not high enough to justify the risk.
I think a 1:0 or 2:0 for Leverkusen is very likely, but a 1:1 or the aforementioned 2:1 for Bayer are also quite conceivable. The 2.5-goal mark should therefore not wobble in most possible scenarios.
Analysis: Dortmund vs Leverkusen
Dortmund go into their upcoming game against Bayer Leverkusen with mixed feelings after finishing 2024 with a much-needed 3-1 win in Wolfsburg – incidentally their first away three-goal win of this Bundesliga season.
Nevertheless, the winter has been disappointing so far, with three consecutive draws (1:1 each) before that, in each of which they conceded late equalizers.
This run of draws followed a similar pattern from last season, when both encounters against Leverkusen also ended in draws. A third 1-1 draw against B04 in a row would therefore not be far-fetched.
However, they remain strong at home, unbeaten in the league at Signal Iduna Park with 6 wins and 2 draws, making them one of only two teams yet to lose a home game.
Bayer Leverkusen, on the other hand, are in impressive form, with an eight-game winning streak, including their last five Bundesliga games.
This form has catapulted them into second place, just four points behind Bayern Munich, and they are in a strong position to set their sights on the title. So the title defense doesn’t seem to be a completely hopeless task after all.
Their away record is also excellent, they are unbeaten away from home this season with 4 wins and 3 draws, which underlines their ability to win on difficult pitches.
In fact, their last away defeat dates back to a 3-0 loss in Bochum in May 2023, since when the Rhinelanders have gone 24 consecutive away games without defeat. Insane, right?
Rating Analysis
I have to say that I don’t quite agree with ChatGPT’s Dortmund Leverkusen AI prediction discussed earlier in some places.
Especially when it comes to the goals, I think that the AI was a bit too optimistic here.
Because I find the odds for “Under 3.5 goals” at around 1.55 much more attractive in this context. Both teams play offensively, but I expect that there will be fewer goals in this game, especially because both coaches have a lot of respect for each other.
In addition, I also like the odds of 6.40 for “Schick scores the 1:0” very much.
It could be an exciting but rather low-scoring game, and I think that the in-form Czech in the Leverkusen team could be the player who scores the first (and possibly only) goal of the game.
The risk is of course higher, but the potential payout makes this bet very tempting.
Dortmund vs Leverkusen odds: Boniface’s absence is not wild!
Although Victor Boniface is still injured, the absence is not as serious as it might seem at first glance. Patrik Schick has taken over responsibility in attack and is currently playing superbly.
After his four-goal haul against Freiburg, the Czech striker has scored an impressive 62 Bundesliga goals, making him the new record goalscorer for his country in the top flight – he has left Jan Koller with 61 goals behind him.
Schick’s tally is particularly impressive: in his last five Bundesliga appearances, he has scored a total of nine times – no one in the league has been more successful than him since matchday 10.
Dortmund must therefore watch out, because Schick is currently in top form and could also provide dangerous moments against Borussia.
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Was the plug pulled on the BVB offense?
With the aforementioned suspension of Pascal Groß, Borussia Dortmund will be without an important player who has played a decisive role in BVB’s offense so far.
With 54 corners this season, Groß was the player with the third most corner kicks in the Bundesliga, and his absence could severely affect Dortmund’s attacking line in this area.
By the way, it makes a lot of sense to register online with Oddset this month, as there are not only great Dortmund Leverkusen odds, but also great offers and deals for the exciting phase of the Champions League league phase.
You shouldn’t forget that both opponents are also involved in the top flight and would like to put in a strong photo finish there at the end of January!
On the other hand, Bayer 04 Leverkusen have found their form impressively in recent weeks. As already mentioned, the Werkself have won their last five Bundesliga games in a row, recording more victories overall than in the first ten games of the season.
Leverkusen have even celebrated eight wins in a row across all competitions. This strong record suggests that they have found the rhythm that took them to the top last season.
However, I decide to consider the double chance X2 option and not rule out a draw.
Even though Dortmund are struggling with a few absentees, Xabi Alonso has not yet had a good experience against BVB: under his leadership, Leverkusen have yet to win against Dortmund in three matches (2 draws, 1 defeat).
That suggests a tense and open game in which the points may be shared again in the end.
My Dortmund Leverkusen tip:
Dortmund have not lost the first league game of the new year since 2005 – 15 wins, 5 draws.
And here’s the best part: three of those games were against Leverkusen.
That means the boys from Dortmund know exactly how to rock the start of the year. Precisely because I have respect for these figures, I’m not going to rule out the possibility of a points split in my Dortmund Leverkusen prediction.
Instead, I’m putting together a nice combination bet at Interwetten, according to which the most likely final results are covered.
What exactly could these final results look like? 0:0, 1:1, 0:1, 0:2 and 1:2.
In other words: Double chance X2 & Under 3.5 goals.
