Series A, Monday, 15.04.2024
A handful of Italian clubs competed internationally during the week, including last year’s UECL finalists, who will be looking to finally lift the trophy this year!
But while Florence could possibly advance to another European Cup final, the team is in danger of a total collapse in Serie A.
My Fiorentina Genoa betting tip nails this game down to one of two possible outcomes – 0-0 or 1-1
Genoa assembled a strong squad at the start of the season, which has already given the club another year in the first division ahead of schedule. Their lead over the relegation zone is 12 points, which is impressive.
However, if we take a closer look at how the promoted side secured their relegation, it is noticeable that the Ligurians defeated the teams they had to beat around the turn of the year in order to achieve their major goal for the season.
Since Christmas, they have won five Serie A matches against Sassuolo (2:1), Salernitana (2:1), Lecce (2:1), Udinese (2:0) and Verona (2:1) last weekend, all of whom are relegation candidates
This brief analysis of Genoa’s recent performances should not, however, give the impression that they win against the “weak” and mutate into a whipping boy against the top clubs – quite the opposite!
I’ve seen the Ligurians put up a brilliant fight this season, even against absolute top clubs like Inter, Juventus and Napoli!
Their no-frills counter-attacking soccer via the highly sought-after Icelander Albert Gudmundsson can really hurt even ball-loving teams.
Nevertheless, Fiorentina’s favouritism on Monday, as currently proclaimed on the markets, is absolutely fine. The AFC win odds of around 1.85 are also fair, but only a shade lower – and a home win bet would already be too optimistic for me!
Genoa are no longer working towards any recognizable goal, while Fiorentina are in danger of not being allowed to compete in a third consecutive European Cup season in the near future.
Their current position in the table is not good enough for this, and the recent successive defeats in Serie A against Milan (1:2) and Juventus (0:1) have not helped to reduce the gap to the European places.
Florence are therefore not exactly in great shape – and their possession-oriented style could cause problems against the Ligurians, even if they clearly dominated the first-round duel (4-1).
As with my prediction for the game between Atalanta Bergamo and Hellas Verona, which is also scheduled for Monday, signs of fatigue are playing a decisive role at this late stage of the season.
Fiorentina – like Atalanta – were in international action during the week and are also still involved in the Coppa Italia.
It is therefore quite possible that the two consecutive Serie A defeats are also due to a lack of strength and, above all, the personnel to give 100% in three different competitions until the end of the season.
In my opinion, a high-quality team like Genoa benefits greatly from this circumstance!
A specific betting suggestion I’d like to share with you is to put all my eggs in one basket and not make any unnecessary compromises.
Although I could protect myself with a double chance X2 bet using the Interwetten app in the event of an away win for the Ligurians, I don’t think this scenario is all that likely …
From the point of view of maximizing profits, I therefore persistently rely on my strategy of placing a simple draw bet with odds of currently up to 3.55, preferably with the additional condition “Under 2.5 goals”, in order to speculate specifically on a possible 0:0 or 1:1
My betting recommendation is also based on other factors that should not please the home fans.
Fiorentina have only won two of their last 12 Serie A games! Since the turn of the year, only the supporters of Frosinone (1) and Salernitana (0) have been able to enjoy a three-pointer from their favorite team less often.
In addition to all this, last Thursday’s Conference League quarter-final was extremely energy-sapping and did not yet produce the desired result.
In the 0-0 draw against Viktoria Pilsen, the Italians were unable to live up to their role as favorites. Although they had 73% possession, they only managed a few shots on goal (2).
If that doesn’t change significantly, I expect the game against FC Genoa to be a similarly tough affair …
Conclusion: Florence have massively lost ground since the turn of the year and have only themselves to blame if they end up in mid-table at the end of the season.
The announced departure of Vincenzo Italiano in the summer is long overdue, as the team has slumped far too often over the course of the campaign to actually be able to set course for the desired regions in the Serie A standings.
Meanwhile, the supposed underdogs of this game have the potential to surprise their critics time and again – and that’s exactly what I’m banking on with my Fiorentina Genoa betting tip on Monday!
It reads: Draw & Under 2.5 goals
