Copa Libertadores 2024, Wednesday, 29.05.2024
I don’t want to go so far as to equate an early exit for Flamengo with a preliminary round exit for Real Madrid in the Champions League group stage. But this comparison is not too far off the mark.
After all, the Ruby Reds are one of the teams that have been returning to the last 16 of the Copa Libertadores time and time again for many years. Is everything different this year?
According to my Flamengo Millonarios tip, the must-win victory over the Chileans expected by many on Wednesday will not be quite as big as the bookmakers think
Flamengo are not out of the woods yet. Despite their convincing 4:0 victory over Bolivar, they could be out of this prestigious competition early on Wednesday.
The “Ruby Reds” are tied on points with Palestino in second place on the final matchday of the preliminary round, meaning that a final effort will be required to avoid failing to reach the group stage for the first time in a decade.
However, the Brazilians have luck on their side. Their opponents are Millonarios, who will now only focus on the national league competition. Even if they win, the Chileans could not even be relegated to the Copa Sudamericana
We must not forget that while the season in Europe has just ended and Euro 2024 is already peeking around the corner, the new soccer year in South America’s biggest leagues is only a few weeks old.
Consequently, it is far too early to pass judgment on Tite’s work, but the start in the domestic league is already impressive!
After six matchdays, Flamengo are in one of the top places in Serie A with a record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat.
At first glance, there’s a lot to be said for Flamengo. And I have no doubt that they will somehow win this important game in the end.
However, the bookmakers with a German license could have tempered their exaggerated expectations, which are reflected in the Flamengo Millonarios odds.
The CFR win odds average an almost microscopic 1.15 – even though the Brazilians only drew 1-1 against this opponent in the first leg.
Admittedly, Flamengo have started the season better since their last meeting, but I don’t expect the visitors to be outclassed on Wednesday.
Especially as the Ruby Reds have only celebrated one win in the last three months, which falls into the category of “thumping victories”.
The Chileans also only lost the xG value duel in the first leg by the narrow margin of 1.37 to 1.48, so this aspect also suggests that the Millonarios will not simply let themselves be rolled over.
While using the Admiralbet app and the Betano app, I came across an offer that caught my attention.
At an average of 17.0, Millionaris’ away win odds are of course as astronomical as they are unpromising, so I don’t waste another thought on them.
However, a much more promising special bet, according to which the Chileans will not lose both halves of the match, promises a win factor of around 1.70.
In the first leg, the first half clearly belonged to the Chileans, so I’m not averse to a corresponding half-time bet. The visitors collected 1.11 of their collective xG value of 1.37 in this period.
They scored 13 times before the break and only 3 afterwards. That all suggests that Millonarios could well have a strong first half this time, before the Ruby Reds take control of the game again later on.
I think it’s inevitable that the Brazilians will ultimately use their home advantage to secure their ticket to the round of 16.
After all, they have already played a lot of competitive matches at the legendary Maracana in the 2024 calendar year and have almost always won: 12 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
Conclusion: Everyone expects Flamengo to easily dispatch the Millonarios after their victory over Bolivar at the Maracana. Especially as the 2024 international season is already over for the visitors, regardless of the outcome of the game.
Nevertheless, I don’t expect the team to collapse. The Brazilians will have the upper hand, but probably with results like 2:0 or even 3:0.
The majority of these goals should come after the break, as the Chileans are usually at their best in the first half.
My Flamengo Millonarios tip is therefore not assuming that the FRJ will win both halves of the game
