France – Poland betting tip, prediction & odds Euro 25.06.2024

France Poland betting tip & the best odds for matchday 3 of group D

“Poland zero points” was a European Championship prediction that I considered inevitable months before the start of the tournament.

There wasn’t much time for coach Michal Probierz to clean up the mess left behind by Fernando Santos

And so, unfortunately, it came as it had to: POL is the first nation to be officially eliminated from Euro 2024.

In my France Poland tip, you can now find out whether the Eastern Europeans will let themselves go completely or whether there will be one last hurrah under the leadership of Robert Lewandowski

What also emerged from my thoughts on European Championship bets, which were worth placing before the start of the tournament, was that the French, if they had to win on matchday 3, would play Poland to the wall.

And this is precisely the starting position next Tuesday. After all, Les Bleus failed to beat Holland and must now also fear an Austrian overtaking maneuver that would see them slip to third place.

That’s why my France Poland betting tip is that La Grand Nation will celebrate a commanding victory in Dortmund, with or without Kylian Mbappe at the heart of the attack.

The France – Poland prediction of the bookmakers

The France Poland odds of the European Championship bookmakers were of course significantly influenced by the starting position after matchday 2 ahead of this final group game.

The need for the French to celebrate a win against Poland on Tuesday in order to avoid a looming Round of 16 clash against England has convinced the bookies that they will indeed set heaven and hell in motion in Dortmund.

Accordingly, the France odds hover around a value of just 1.25, which corresponds to a percentage probability of 80% and thus expresses enormous confidence.

The Poland odds, on the other hand, are in the double-digit range across all providers.

France – Poland odds: Where are the highest France odds?

EM Free bets are profitable and risk-free with all of the bookies presented in our bookmaker comparison.

With regard to the France Poland odds, however, I have specifically opted for the betting offer of the official sponsor of the European Championship: Betano Sportsbook.

Analysis: France vs Poland

There was a glimmer of hope for the Poles midway through the second half. The score was 1-1 when Robert Lewandowski came on as a substitute and encouraged his team to attack once more.

But it was no use. The “Rangnick system” simply worked better in the decisive moments of the match and revealed the Polish side’s problems of being extremely vulnerable when the ball was won in their own half of the pitch.

As a result, Szczesny had to get involved in a one-on-one against Sabitzer, in which he conceded a penalty and can count himself lucky not to have been sent off with a straight red.

In the final minutes, the Eastern Europeans’ resistance collapsed completely and after a 2-1 defeat to Holland and a 3-1 loss to Austria, the early return home was a foregone conclusion

Some might be inclined to say that France disappointed against Holland. After all, Deschamps’ side were unable to get past a 0-0 draw. However, I take a more nuanced view of the situation.

Apart from the fact that the French won the xG value duel by 1.33 to 0.39 and therefore created the better chances, the standings also played a significant role.

Both nations could live very well with a point, so without Mbappe in the center of the attack, France probably deliberately refrained from exerting the same pressure on the Dutch defense that they would have applied in the round of 16

While Robert Lewandowski will be in the starting eleven this time around, it is likely that Kylian Mbappe will have to miss another game due to his broken nose.

Nonetheless, Deschamps has enough options in attack to increase the pressure if he continues to be unsuccessful

Quota analysis

FRA may have lost some of their attacking power without Mbappe, but the Dutch still only managed a few notable goals against them last Friday.

This insight is important for my France Poland betting tip in that I would prefer a one-nil win instead of a high handicap bet.

The France odds for a three-pointer, in which Maignan can look forward to a clean sheet, are currently 2.00 and therefore represent an excellent offer.

In any case, I think a commanding 1-0 or 2-0 win is much more likely than a 4-1 or 5-1 victory for Les Bleus, who will want to conserve their strength as much as possible.

France vs Poland odds: POL fondly remembers FRA

Poland’s greatest sporting success was a 3rd place finish at the 1982 World Cup, where they beat France 3-2 in the match for third place.

But that was also the Eastern Europeans’ last triumph over a French side that has famously improved in quality in recent decades and is now possibly the strongest team in Europe.

The last showdown took place in the round of 16 of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, when the French easily prevailed 3:1, thanks in part to a brace from the currently ailing Kylian Mbappe.

Poland will have problems motivating themselves

Poland have only scored more than once in one of their 16 European Championship matches, in a 3-2 defeat to Sweden at EURO 2020.

That’s why I recommend you bet on France to win the game against Poland.

This weak offensive performance strongly suggests that it will be difficult for Poland to make any headway against the French’s impressive defense.

After all, if Holland have already failed to do that, how will the Poles manage it?

Furthermore, for me the biggest reason why the Poles will only put up limited resistance is that they have already been eliminated from the preliminary round. There’s no way around that.

Then there are the bare figures from this and the previous European Championship finals, which encourage me to put my faith in my France Poland prediction of a one-nil win for the clear favorites.

After all, Poland have not won a single game in three of the four European Championship finals they have participated in since 2008.

Of the 14 matches played in this period, only two preliminary round victories were celebrated in the 2016 edition

My secret favorite for a lucrative France Poland betting tip of a very special kind is Olivier Giroud.

Admittedly, the veteran has hardly been given a chance so far, but when he came on as a substitute in the closing stages against Holland, he showed why he was one of the best wall strikers of his generation.

The AC Milan man netted in the last meeting with the Poles at the 2022 World Cup and could score a ‘joker goal’ from the bench this time, possibly inside the final quarter of an hour.

In this context, I recommend the bet “Last goalscorer: Olivier Giroud”, which you can take at odds of around 4.85.

My France Poland bet:

France will of course want to invest more energy in this game than originally planned after the zero number against Holland next Tuesday.

However, my France Poland betting tip can be summarized as follows: I trust the French defence much more than their attack.

While one to three goals should be scored up front, the defense is clearly the only part of the team that has been convincing so far.

And that’s why my France Poland tip is: The French win without conceding a goal

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