Series A, Monday, 29.04.2024
In front of around 35,000 spectators at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris on Monday, I expect a low-scoring draw in my Genoa Cagliari betting tip – preferably a 0-0 or 1-1.
Both clubs are evenly matched in many areas, although I weight the visitors’ momentum and their need for a point or two a little more heavily than the home side’s chances of winning the game
You know, it’s no coincidence that Salernitana will finish bottom of the table despite the increase in personnel costs compared to the previous season and the signing of Jerome Boateng.
After all, if you look at how much money the two promoted teams Genoa and Cagliari have spent to avoid relegation again, it simply had to be the team from Salerno in the end.
However, while the Ligurians will already be “spending the summer” in the safe middle of the table, Cagliari still need a point or two to be able to plan ahead for the 2024/25 Serie A season.
However, it would have to be the devil’s own doing for the Sardinians to actually be relegated …
Genoa and Cagliari have very similar attacking potential and the two rivals are not exactly worlds apart in the standings with seven points.
What is striking, however, is that Cagliari have conceded 16 more goals than any other club in the league and have therefore conceded by far the most goals of any club not currently in a relegation place.
However, the Sardinians are now also dishing out quite a few goals. Although they have not conceded in any of their last four Serie A appearances, they have never left the pitch as losers (1 win, 3 draws).
I’ll give you the last three results of FC Cagliari and then you should understand why I’m a bit at war with the bookmakers and their Genoa Cagliari odds.
The Sardinians won 2:1 against Atalanta and then drew against both Inter (2:2) and Juventus (2:2)! So they scored against three absolute top clubs in a very short space of time!
Consequently, I would have expected a more balanced odds ratio. But with average odds of 2.20 to 3.40, the betting markets actually favor the “Grifoni”, who are already stranded in the middle of the table
A double chance X2 bet is therefore an integral part of my Genoa Cagliari soccer bet consisting of two elements.
The three useful results against the aforementioned top clubs and the certainty in the back of the visitors’ minds that they have already beaten this opponent 2:1 in the first round automatically make them the favorites in my eyes.
However, I would also select the under 2.5 goals option, as in contrast to the Sardinians’ recent rather turbulent performances, this time we can expect more of a footballing positional war.
After all, that’s part and parcel of this match!
Only three of the last eleven competitive matches between the two clubs have produced more than 2.5 goals – and only when the game took place in Sardinia.
Beyond that, the “Grifoni” simply cannot be expected to go into this encounter on the back foot. They are certain to stay in the league and from now on will have to get through the rest of the program without any injuries.
Instead, the Ligurians’ supporters will be preoccupied in these final days of the 2023/24 Serie A season with the question of where their superstar Albert Gudmundsson will end up after the 2024 European Championship
In the end, my decision falls on a combination bet of the type Double Chance X2 & Under 2.5 goals.
In return, I not only get a nice total odds of currently 2.25 from the provider Interwetten, but as a new customer I also have the opportunity to benefit from their Interwetten bonus
In fact, a 0:0 or 1:1 are the two possible outcomes of this match that I can best imagine at the moment.
Although soccer is not like parliament, the Ligurians can live very well with a draw, while Cagliari will almost certainly not be relegated thanks to another point alone
Conclusion: The 2023/24 Serie A season is unlikely to be a highlight. Both clubs just want to get the season to the end somehow, but ultimately the Sardinians can be expected to put in a little more effort.
The recent performances of Claudio Ranieri’s legendary coaching team have made it clear that the promoted side have come to stay, but they still need a point or two to achieve mathematical certainty of staying up.
Monday’s match is likely to be uneventful, with the ball being passed around a lot. And if the Sardinians don’t go for it too much, I wouldn’t be at all surprised by a possible zero number.
In any case, my Genoa Cagliari tip is: DC X2 & Under 2.5 goals
