Germany Scotland betting tip & the best odds for the opening match of the European Championship
So this is it! EURO 2024 is finally getting underway and the odds for Germany-Scotland betting tips are pouring out of me. Quite a few are expecting a “summer fairytale reloaded” and see the DFB team as having a realistic chance of winning the title at their home tournament.
However, ahead of the opening match between Germany and the Bravehearts in a few hours’ time, I am one of the less optimistic people. I don’t want to be a spoilsport, but in my Euro opener prediction I’ll be citing statistics that point to a bumpy start for the hosts.
So you can be sure that I won’t be looking at the start of the European Championships through German eyes, but will be putting tips and bets on the table that take full account of the DFB team’s recent performances. The “Both teams to score” is just the tip of the iceberg.
Anyone who believes that Julian Nagelsmann’s team will beat Scotland in passing is probably on the wrong track here
And to be honest, I have the pleasant feeling that the Germany-Scotland odds are playing into my hands.
Why the Euro betting providers see Scotland as such clear underdogs is simply a mystery to me.
After all, the DFB team only managed a 2:1 victory against Greece in their last test – against a team that, unlike Scotland, is not even at the European Championships and has a much lower ranking in the FIFA world rankings.
My Germany-Scotland prediction sticks to the facts and sees the three-time European champions having their work cut out for them in the first game of the 2024 European Championship – anti-hype tips included.
The bookmakers’ Germany – Scotland prediction
Double digits? Double digits! Yes, the odds for a Scotland win to kick off the European Championship are actually in double figures.
Not that I would expect the Scots to win against Germany. But the fact that the bookmakers are going so far out on a limb is somewhat surprising.
The odds of around 1.30 for a DFB victory are only slightly too low. In my opinion, 1.45 would have done just as well. The draw is also slightly disproportionate at just under 6.00.
To refresh your memory: Germany lost all of their opening matches at the 2018 World Cup (against Mexico), the 2020 European Championship (against France) and the 2022 World Cup (against Japan).
Germany vs Scotland odds: Where are the highest Germany odds?
Let’s not get this wrong: I see a German win as the most likely outcome of the match. However, the low Germany odds spoil my enjoyment of a classic 1×2 bet.
Accordingly, I’m focusing on special boost variants that the bookmakers are making available to us for the opening game of the European Championship.
We already know that Julian Nagelsmann is planning to play Kai Havertz up front. The alternative Niclas Füllkrug will therefore have to make do with a place on the bench for the time being.
If Germany score, Havertz will be at the top of the list of potential goalscorers. If the Arsenal star even scores the first goal of the game, the odds at Bet365 boost to an excellent 6.00. You really can’t get a better value bet than that.
As a boost alternative, I also have the bet “Germany win both halves” in my sights. Bet365 also has odds of 2.87 available here. Who needs odds below 1.30 for a simple win for the DFB team?
Analysis: Germany vs Scotland
At first glance, Germany’s international record in 2024 doesn’t look too bad. Four games, three wins, one draw.
The victories against the Netherlands and France could even give them confidence that they will be able to keep up with the big favorites at the EURO in their own country.
In reality, however, the French played with the handbrake on and the Dutch were extremely unlucky to lose.
The zero-number against Ukraine and the bumpy victory against Greece therefore fit quite well into the picture of a German national team that always tries hard but seems clumsy.
Strikingly, the DFB team has never scored more than a maximum of two goals in its last seven matches.
The last time they scored three goals was in October 2023 in a 3-1 win against the USA. If Germany stays at a maximum of two goals against Scotland, you can dust off solid odds of 1.60.
But is the Scottish defense stable enough for such a Germany-Scotland prediction? The – well – clear answer: to a certain extent.
In the recent past, the Scots have conceded four goals each against France and the Netherlands.
Overall, results such as the 2-2 draw against Finland or the 3-3 draw against Norway suggest that the underdogs will also score a goal or two against Germany, but will be extremely spotty defensively.
Accordingly, from a Scottish perspective, I consider a 2:3 against Germany to be a more likely result than a classic 0:1. Interesting: If Scotland scores even one goal against the European Championship hosts, odds of 2.00 are on offer.
In general, however, the Bravehearts’ form ahead of EURO 2024 is far from positive. In fact, they have only won one of their last nine international matches.
Moreover, that success “only” came against Gibraltar (2:0). In short, if Scotland get a full house at the start of the European Championship, it will probably be less due to Germany’s strength than to their own quality problems
Analysis of odds
Even the “double chance X2” is only a risk bet for me due to Scotland’s problems. The odds for this are around 3.65 and are therefore naturally attractive.
The odds for a “draw at half-time” are even more interesting. The value for this bet climbs to a strong 2.50 and outlines an extremely realistic scenario.
It is by no means unlikely that Germany will start the game in a tense mood, Scotland will throw themselves into every duel and only lose strength and concentration in the second half.
In general, I can imagine that the second half will be the higher scoring half. If this is the case, the odds will be just under 2.00. You can find more betting alternatives in our top 5 selection:
Germany vs Scotland odds: The DFB team is hanging in there
Also important for the first Germany odds of the tournament: How is Scotland’s European Championship experience?
Modest, I would say. Before the tournament in Germany, they had only played in three European Championship finals. In 1992, 1996 and 2021, they were always eliminated in the preliminary round.
This time, too, the bookies are expecting the Bravehearts to go home quickly when they look at the Scottish squad…
The fact that they have not qualified for a World Cup since 1998 says everything about their chances of playing a leading role at the upcoming EURO.
Germany’s European Championship record is quite ambivalent, at least from a current perspective. On the one hand, they have already won three titles (1972, 1980, 1996). On the other hand, they have only reached the final once in the last 28 years (2008).
The old Gary Lineker adage that the Germans always win in the end is no longer true
Scotland is not a favorite opponent
However, the statistics of the direct comparison must be taken with a pinch of salt.
Germany and Scotland have already met 17 times. However, the last encounter was a good nine years ago.
The DFB team defeated the underdogs twice in the 2014/2015 European Championship qualifiers. However, those victories were by no means clear-cut, winning 2:1 and 3:2.
It is also interesting to note that the German team have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last four direct encounters with the Bravehearts
In total, there have only been four encounters this century. The two matches not yet mentioned date back to the 2002/2003 European Championship qualifiers (1:1, 2:1).
This means that my main bet “Both teams score” would have been successful in each of the last four matches.
In general, we can state that Germany’s record against Scotland is not as positive as one might imagine
In fact, “only” eight of 17 duels were won. In addition, the statistics show five draws and four defeats.
Germany’s last defeat against Scotland was in 1999, when they lost a test match 1-0 in Bremen. Erich Ribbeck was the coach of the DFB team.
The two national teams have only met once before at a European Championship. In 1992, Germany won 2:0 in the group stage. If the DFB team wins with the same result on Friday, the odds will rise to a solid 6.20.
My Germany Scotland betting tip:
In the end, it’s quite simple: I don’t believe that the German national team can compete for the title at the European Championship in its current state.
However, the DFB team will of course quite rightly be the favorites against Scotland.
As shown, the Scots have not been able to recommend themselves for higher tasks against stronger teams recently and are likely to have major problems in Group A to avoid having to go home early as bottom of the group.
However, due to the rather wild style of play and the susceptible German defense, I still think the Bravehearts can score at least one goal.
My Germany-Scotland betting tip is therefore: Both teams score at least one goal each.
