Bundesliga 5th matchday, Saturday, 09/28/2024 at 3:30 pm
As is well known, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. In my Gladbach Union Berlin betting tip, the Foehlem will, appropriately, take another small step closer to relegation purgatory on Saturday afternoon.
After several disappointing years, Borussia had actually set out to build on some more glamorous times in the current round, but on the 5th matchday of the Bundesliga, there are very few indications that speak in favor of a full three points.
To make matters worse, these rare glimmers of hope are almost exclusively due to the well-known away weakness of the now heralded Irons, who in 2023/24 only came in 17th place in the corresponding ranking.
However, since the club from Köpenick has been doing unexpectedly well this season so far, I expect the double chance X2 to be another more or less lucrative guest appearance at Borussia-Park – and have added a full stop after three goals at the latest to this tip!
Incidentally, the choice of my preferred betting provider was influenced to a not insignificant extent by the currently available Betano promo code…
In my opinion, not even the fact that the team from the Lower Rhine region has had to deal with extremely difficult opponents so far can save them here.
The defeats against Leverkusen, Stuttgart and Frankfurt should not normally be a problem – but in this case, they simply add up to far too much of a temptation in the face of the extremely mediocre overall impression.
This is particularly influenced by the fact that the capital club is one of the foals’ biggest nemeses after eight consecutive games without a win.
My Gladbach Union prediction has also been underpinned by the fact that the team from the Lower Rhine region have not won any of their last seven home games – their own supporters have not celebrated a full three points since February’s game against VfL Bochum.
The betting providers’ forecast?
In view of this long dry spell, it is somewhat surprising that the betting providers are propagating extremely favorable Gladbach Union Berlin odds for the hosts.
Maximum odds of 2.15 leave almost no other conclusion than that the hosts’ agonizing streak is finally about to come to an end.
However, since my already revealed tip is more in the direction of the guests, the two other options of the 1X2 bet are of course much more interesting to me:
And here I can certainly note with satisfaction that both a draw and an away win with odds of around 3.60 and 3.40, respectively, are pretty round things, considering the value.
KI prediction Gladbach vs. Union Berlin: That’s what ChatGPT tips
If you think my general tendency towards guests is perhaps a bit overconfident, you haven’t seen the Gladbach Union Berlin AI prediction from ChatGPT!
At least the artificial brain came up with a victory for the official underdog with at least a two-goal lead as a risk variant in this game.
However much I like the Iron, this AI tip seems to me to overshoot the mark a little. Since Union are also without a win for 7 away games (4 draws, 3 defeats), the chances of Berlin are a little overestimated here…
Unsurprisingly, the double chance X2 is much more to my taste – it’s no coincidence that this option has made it onto my betting slip.
On the other hand, I have no sympathy for the assumption, also expressed at a very low odds, that there will be at least two goals in the Borussia Park.
Considering that Union has the best defense in the league with only two goals conceded in the current season and, moreover, scores only very sparingly away from home (3 goals in the last 7 away games), the odds of 1.25, even as part of a commission, seem far too stingy to me.
Analysis: Gladbach vs. Union
While Borussia, just like last season, is facing the prospect of a disastrous start with three consecutive home defeats, the guests have so far been able to show how a successful fresh start can be made.
After a record season in 22/23, the Irons were in danger of sinking into chaos in the past season, but the two wins and two draws they have managed to get so far show the team as undefeated in the new round.
Their return to form is largely thanks to a return to the club’s virtues that had been lost in the meantime.
The aforementioned stabilized defense is currently demonstrating week after week that you don’t need a spectacle for successful football.
The summer-started Bo Svensson can thus be said to have had a thoroughly successful start, which – from a purely statistical point of view – can now be followed by another profitable performance in the Borussia Park.
Still completely unbeaten against his former club (3 wins, 3 draws), the Danish coach has a points guarantee on board on Saturday afternoon, so to speak.
One can confidently speak of such a guarantee in the case of “his” Irons, who have only suffered a single defeat in eleven competitive duels against Gladbach.
And since this defeat dates back to 2020, the last four trips to the Neiderrhein have almost always met all of the Berliners’ expectations (two wins, two draws).
Odds analysis
When the Irons play, tips for low-scoring games always seem to be a good idea: after all, the rule of thumb is that the less happens on the lush green, the more successful Union is.
Since on the previous match days, both for the home side and for FCU, goals were scored in only two of four cases, the odds of 2.15 – for example at the bookie Winamax – for “BTS: No” are noticeably above the statistically expected average.
It is also noteworthy that Union was not behind at half-time or 90 minutes in any of the four previous matchdays, while the foals have already been behind twice at half-time:
The resulting tip that Union will take the lead at half-time in the Borussia Park, thanks to the associated odds of 3.7, in my view, certainly outweighs the risk that is naturally present.
Perhaps even more speculative is the tip that former Gladbach loanee Jordan can earn at least one goal for his actual employer on his return to his former club.
The Iron striker’s goal is, for example, quoted at 3.50 at Bwin.
Since the bookmakers don’t really believe in the guests according to the odds, I wouldn’t be surprised if you also raise your eyebrows a little at my tip at first.
After Union didn’t play with much joy in any of their previous games against Mainz, St. Pauli, Leipzig and Hoffenheim, the current successful start to the season could actually be seen as a flash in the pan in some time.
In my view, however, the team should guard against this danger with the resilience that has already been demonstrated: in away games in particular, the Berliners have always kept their cool, even in tricky situations.
So the Irons did not let themselves be unsettled by a deficit at home for a long time against the Rhine-Hessians, who could not be cracked, while the 0-0 draw defended by the Rasenballers was certainly impressive proof of their defensive class.
When will the foals start?
Gladbach coach Gerardo Seoane should take a critical look at how successfully the new coach of the upcoming opponent sweeps.
After all, Union also had to part with a Swiss manager (and his later successor) before the football god deemed their return to the road to success legitimate.
In contrast, the path to calm waters seems to be largely blocked for Borussia under Seoane.
After only one win from the last 10 Bundesliga games across the season, it is almost impossible not to come to the conclusion that the person in charge on the sidelines has been lacking in inspiring solutions throughout the calendar year.
Despite such unquestionably demoralizing numbers, I don’t want to throw a spanner in the works with the Gladbach Union Berlin betting tip, which is why one or two relativizations seem appropriate.
Looking at the opponents they have faced so far, namely Leverkusen, Stuttgart and Frankfurt, the defeats they have suffered only serve to show that they are not yet ready for teams with higher international aspirations.
BMG had also presented itself strongly here, particularly at the start against the German champions, when, once again, it was only with the greatest of luck and late that the Werkself scored the winning goal.
The 2-0 win at VfL Bochum in the meantime, meanwhile, gave encouragement for the now more frequent tests against much more customary opponents:
If you take points off the Ruhr Kickers, who are always difficult to play against at home, in such a well-deserved way, you certainly don’t have to be at a lost cause against Union, who are also not at their best away from home.
My Gladbach Union Berlin tip:
Despite this encouraging sign, however, almost all the statistical data here points too much in one direction for me to go against the Iron’s chances of winning at least one point on Saturday afternoon.
If the corresponding odds for the double chance X2 at 1.70 are already quite reasonable, the additional over-risio also seems quite legitimate to me.
Since the Irons have not scored more than three goals in any game this season, Svensson’s boys should finally manage to successfully put the game to sleep in the Borussia-Park again.
My Gladbach Union Berlin prediction: Double chance X2 & Under 3.5 goals!
