Bundesliga 22nd matchday, Sunday, 2/16/2025 at 7:30 p.m.
Never before has a team managed to avoid relegation after losing 15 times in 21 matchdays – what a wonderful motivation for 1. FC Heidenheim!
The beleaguered Swabians seem to have lost all the skills that enabled them to cause major sensations in the Bundesliga as recently as 2023/24.
Somehow they are still holding the relegation place, but this is not due to their own strength, but rather to the constant mistakes of the remaining pursuers.
Of course, the FCH fans are now hoping that my Heidenheim Mainz tip will give them facts that will encourage them to win at home.
Admittedly, the 05ers have been in better form before, but I still don’t see much hope for the home side. That’s why I decided to go for the double chance X2 here and add “Under 3.5 goals”.
Why? Quite simply because the Heidenheimers have not scored in a long time and the guests from Rheinhessen are currently having problems scoring away from home. I hope this is not going to be a boring 0-0 draw!
It would certainly be a result that nobody would be satisfied with, but a goalless draw would also be implied in my betting tip. In any case, you can look forward to what this game has to offer; there will certainly be no lack of passion and fighting spirit in this duel!
A win since the end of September? It is only logical that Heidenheim are not currently in the role of favorites in any game. In this home game, the odds of 3.45 are even lower than one might expect based on the current situation.
Those who want to bet on a Mainz success will see average odds of 2.10. Of course, it should be noted that the guests have finished four of their last five away games without scoring.
FCH have only shared the points twice this season, which is the lowest in the league. However, a draw is not ruled out with our best bookmakers, with the odds coming in at a very modest 3.45.
AI-Prediction Heidenheim vs Mainz: Darauf tippt ChatGPT
Of course, word has also spread to the AI that Heidenheim is currently one of the weakest teams in the Bundesliga. So are the three tips that I had ChatGPT create for me likely to come true?
The first one is, because it predicts an away win with goals on both sides. FCH has only scored nine times at home, while there has been no BTS in five of Mainz’s last six games. So I would be a bit cautious here.
Jonathan Burkardt is fit again after his injury, but he only managed 20 minutes against Augsburg. The AI thinks he can score on Sunday, it would be goal number 13. My assessment? If the striker is back to 100 percent, he should score!
The “under 2.5 goals” also applies. I have already mentioned the weaknesses of the Heidenheim attack, and in addition, Mainz has only scored once in the last three away games. Therefore, it could very well be that this tip will work out in the end.
Analysis: Heidenheim vs Mainz
2023/24 was a season in which everything went right. 1. FC Heidenheim gave its fans one magical moment after another, even reaching the international competition at the end. But as the saying goes, the second season after a promotion is often the most difficult.
When the new season got off to a great start with wins against St. Pauli (2-0) and Augsburg (4-0), nobody believed that this saying would prove true. Almost half a year has passed since then – and FCH have long since come back down to earth.
Only Kiel and Bochum are doing even worse, although their lead over the bottom-placed team is only three points. 15 defeats? No one does more! And never before, as I mentioned at the beginning, has a team managed to avoid relegation with this interim result.
The club has lost all its second-half games, and it doesn’t help that the defeats against St. Pauli (0:2), Augsburg (1:2), Dortmund (1:2) and Freiburg (0:1) were very close.
Nevertheless, Heidenheim’s 2-1 shock victory over FC Copenhagen in the Conference League play-offs on Thursday was extremely valuable in terms of boosting their confidence!
Odds analysis
With nine goals, Heidenheim have the second-weakest home offense in the Bundesliga – reason enough to place a bet on “FCH not scoring”. At Betano, you can get odds of 2.80 for this.
Since Mainz, for their part, have conceded 24 goals, the second-best defense behind Bayern Munich, and I expect little resistance from the home side, you can go even higher and say: 05 will win to zero! In this case, the odds would rise to 3.60.
My choice for an outcome bet? It’s not likely to be a spectacular game, but I still predict a 0-1 scoreline. This result currently suits both teams equally, and the odds of 8.00 in the Bet365 app are also worthwhile.
Heidenheim vs. Mainz: There won’t be many goals!
Since the fifth matchday, they have only won once, and the 2-0 win against Union Berlin was of course also influenced by the fact that their opponents were in a serious crisis themselves.
How does the team intend to get out of this mess again? Frank Schmidt’s team are actually known for being very strong at home, but that is not the case this season.
With two wins, a draw and seven defeats, they are bottom of the home table, with only St. Pauli (7) scoring fewer goals at home.
Since six of the goals were scored against Augsburg and Bremen, only three goals remain for the other eight matches.
Mainz wants to return to its old strength
But: For six home games on the Alb, goals have been scored before half-time, albeit often for the opponent. Is it worth betting that exactly the same will happen at the weekend?
Not really, because at Betano the corresponding odds are only 1.42. You would have to increase here and say: two goals before half-time. That was the case three times at least and would result in odds of 2.80 on Sunday.
Does it help the players’ self-confidence a little to know that they have never lost to Mainz? Maybe a little, because in only three games, the seven points (two 2-0 wins away, one 1-1 at home) are of course only partially meaningful.
So the guests from Mainz know: We can send the opponent even deeper into crisis – but don’t we have just enough to do ourselves? Bo Henriksen’s team had actually always crept closer to Europe.
They were particularly strong away from home, losing just one of 11 away games in 2024. It is precisely this strength that the Reds have now lost, and they themselves are not quite sure how that could have happened.
0-1 in Bremen, 1-2 at Union Berlin, 0-1 against Leverkusen? They have not scored points in three away games and goals are in short supply! Even the one goal against the Irons, tellingly, came from the spot.
Four of the last five away games have ended in defeat, and there was that crazy 3-4 in Wolfsburg. Admittedly, the last three defeats may have happened because Jonathan Burkardt was unable to play.
He has now hopefully finally overcome his newly re-emerged injury, so he was on the pitch for a short time in the recent 0-0 draw in Augsburg. Mainz are in seventh place, but since the competition is not pulling away either, all international dreams are still possible.
Whether it will be a draw next weekend anyway? In any case, I see two draws in a row, and both times the first point was scored at home, just like against Augsburg.
Incidentally, the 05ers have some catching up to do when a player takes a corner kick. They have already taken 102 corner kicks, but have not scored a goal from them! So it’s a good thing that Heidenheim have conceded six goals from corners, three of them in 2025 alone.
My Heidenheim Mainz Tip:
Can things get any worse for 1. FC Heidenheim in the Bundesliga? The fans have already got used to the dreariness, but of course they still hope that their team can overcome the crisis.
For Mainz 05, FCH should actually be a kind of opponent in the rebuilding process. The guests have lost their strong line, especially away from home, and they also need to do more offensively – it’s good that Jonathan Burkardt is about to make his comeback in the starting lineup.
At the end of the day, I don’t think Heidenheim is capable of getting a win, the team is far too insecure for that. But since Mainz also has to regroup first, I’ll be careful and predict:
Mainz scores a maximum of three goals!
