1st FC Heidenheim – RB Leipzig betting tip
Without Marco Rose on the sidelines (yellow ban), but with a run of six consecutive unbeaten league games (5 wins, 1 draw), RB Leipzig will be at the Voith-Arena on Saturday.
Heidenheim have caused quite a stir in recent weeks. They worked hard for a 3:3 draw against VfB Stuttgart and even beat FC Bayern Munich (3:2). Nevertheless, there is no alternative to the bookmakers’ assessment of the Red Bulls as the clear favorites.
The home side have the fewest shots on goal in the league (94) and must be careful not to fall behind too early against the greedy visitors (198 shots on goal). Otherwise, the match-up threatens to be a clear-cut affair
For my Heidenheim RB Leipzig betting tip, I’m basing my predictions on the Red Bulls’ recent performances, in which the fourth-placed team in the table has made goal celebrations a “daily business”.
RBL have scored at least four goals in each of their three previous guest appearances, tearing their rivals’ defenses to shreds.
Happybet is offering attractive odds of 2.10 on a “RB Leipzig win (HC -1)” in this match, which is attracting my attention
The prediction of the bookmakers?
Together with Bayern and Stuttgart, the Red Bulls have provided their supporters with the most goals in the second half of the season (29). The sports betting providers can therefore not avoid naming the guests as clear favorites with odds of up to 1.47.
Heidenheim have already made the acquaintance of two of these three offensive teams in the second half of the season and have clearly outperformed. Neither against Bayern (3:2) nor against VfB Stuttgart (3:3) did the Bundesliga newcomers leave the pitch with a defeat.
Anyone who weights these results higher than I do should feel quite comfortable with the betting odds of 6.00 to 6.60 on offer for a home win.
Evenly-matched encounters usually offer no more than odds of under 4.00 for a draw. This pairing falls outside this category, at least on paper, and has maximum odds of 5.25 on offer for a match without a winner.
Analysis: Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig
FCH 1 have fully acclimatized to the German top flight, losing just three of their twelve second-round games, although the home side have won even fewer (2).
That leaves seven draws in the second half of the season, which pushes the promoted team up to 12th place in the table for the second half of the season (13 points).
These are sensational figures for Frank Schmidt’s team, but would be a disaster for RB Leipzig. However, the Red Bulls can be satisfied with their haul of 23 points from 12 games (4th).
The last few weeks in particular have bolstered the visitors in this fixture. The Saxons have won five of their last six Bundesliga games and have made their opponents look like second-division teams at times recently
I’m talking specifically about the Saxons’ last few away games. Starting with a 4:1 win in Bochum, followed by a 5:1 win in Cologne and the most recent 4:1 away win against SC Freiburg, the last opponents were without a chance even in front of a home crowd.
Both from play (42.36 xG) and from resting balls (11.50 xG), there are only four league rivals who have scored more expected goals in those specific categories.
Heidenheim will therefore have their work cut out for them if they are to stop the Red Bulls’ formidable attacking force. The home side are prepared to suffer for it, as the most completed sprints in the German top flight (7,298) impressively demonstrate.
Whether that will be enough against Rose’s in-form charges is open to question. RB Leipzig have the fourth-best field tilt percentage in the Bundesliga with 56.96 (ball possession distribution in the attacking third in their own games)
Quota analysis
A simple “RB Leipzig to win” is not very lucrative with odds of less than 1.50 and should not be an option for your bet on this match.
Instead, you can assume a game with “Over 3.5 goals” in the match. More than half of the Red Bulls’ away games (57 percent) met the criteria. That should be enough to consider an Interwetten betting bonus for the odds of 2.05.
Furthermore, I recommend parking the odds for “RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals” high up in your priority list. The Red Bulls scored at least three goals in 43 percent of their guest appearances.
If the Saxons manage to score “Over 2.5 goals” again, you have an offer of 2.10 in the Betway app.
That’s not unlikely, as Heidenheim have the third-highest number in the league with 55.1 expected goals conceded
Individual quality to make you click your tongue
Before this season, the Red Bulls made two transfers that have raised their offense to an unimagined level. In addition to the purchase of top scorer Loïs Openda (22 goals), the visitors also loaned a player named Xavi Simons.
Openda has scored eleven goals in 13 league games since the turn of the year and scored a brace in each of the two previous away games.
Xavi Simons, who has already provided ten assists (8.4 expected assists) and created 75 goalscoring chances (3rd), usually feeds the speedy attacker.
Together, the two are the front runners of an offense that has scored a total of 18 goals in the last six league games (3.0 per game).
Leipzig show Heidenheim the limits
Hunger for goals alone, however, is not nearly enough to describe the Red Bulls’ current form. Coach Marco Rose has been able to relax and watch his players win by at least a two-goal margin in five of the previous six league games.
The fourth-placed team’s attacking spirit is complemented by a tactical approach that also gives the defense the necessary security.
The visitors have only conceded 21.27 goals from the current game, making them one of the three best teams in the league.
Heidenheim could therefore have major problems keeping up with RBL’s firepower. After all, only three Bundesliga teams have scored fewer expected goals (Union Berlin, Cologne, Darmstadt) than 1. FCH (34.6 xG).
Of course, expectable values are not the panacea of all statistics, but they can make it easier to assess teams and certainly offer added value.
There are other data that predict a dominant performance by the visitors. For example, no team allowed fewer shots against them (95) than RB Leipzig, while Heidenheim had the fewest shots on goal of all first division teams (94).
Nevertheless, this match does not necessarily have to end without a Heidenheim goal. The home side have scored in seven of their last eight league games.
The performance of the visitors, who have only managed seven percent of their away games without conceding a goal, also fits in with this.
Anyone who has already registered with Crazybuzzer can therefore familiarize themselves with the odds of 2.54 for the match combination “Win RB Leipzig & Both teams to score”, for example.
No matter how you look at it, at the end of the day the scoreboard will definitely read “RB Leipzig win”. In 31 Bundesliga duels against promoted teams so far, the Rose team has not suffered a single defeat and has instead won 28 games.
Leipzig are excellent in all areas of the field and have a team identity that makes them difficult to beat.
According to Soccerment, the Red Bulls have an expected points average of 2.02. Just for comparison: Heidenheim doesn’t even get half of this expected yield (0.96 xP).
My Heidenheim Leipzig tip:
RB Leipzig will travel to the Voith-Arena as big favorites, even if Heidenheim have been a stumbling block for the big teams in the Bundesliga on several occasions.
The Red Bulls’ form is outstanding (5 wins from the last 6 league games) and their attack is the best in the second half of the season (29 goals).
Even the expected goal difference of the home side (-0.72) and the visitors (+1.08 via Soccerment) speak for a clear victory for the fourth-placed team.
My Heidenheim RB Leipzig betting tip is: Victory RB Leipzig with handicap -1!
