VfL Wolfsburg – VfL Bochum betting tip
VfL Wolfsburg are in a position in the table that doesn’t match the Wolves’ ambitions at all – the bottom of the table. A win against a direct competitor is an absolute must on the upcoming matchday.
VfL Bochum’s biggest threat comes from resting balls. Four of Bochum’s last six goals have come from set pieces.
However, set pieces do not tend to cause the Lower Saxons any stomach ache this season. Ralph Hasenhüttl has taken over a team that is one of the six best standard defenses in the Bundesliga with 8.69 expected goals conceded from resting balls
So I would argue that the Wolves’ defense could make the decisive difference in this duel.
I’m mainly alluding to the weakest away defense in the league, which stops at the Volkswagen Arena with VfL Bochum.
At the end of the day, I’m playing a classic variant for my Wolfsburg Bochum betting tip at Happybet and betting on a “Wolfsburg win” at odds of 1.75.
The forecast of the betting providers?
The sports betting providers share my opinion and are offering maximum odds of 1.77 for a home win for the Wolves.
Bochum have only scored one three-pointer away from the Vonovia Ruhrstadion this season and are branded as clear underdogs with odds of between 4.20 and 4.50.
A draw is offered at odds of 3.80 in the Betway app, which is at the lower end of the range. At the top end, the betting odds for a points split range up to 4.10.
Analysis: Wolfsburg vs Bochum
On paper, the home side clearly have the better individual players at their disposal. That has not just been the case this season, as eight wins from the last nine home games against Heiko Butscher’s side make clear.
Of course, the form of both teams is not the yellow of the egg. Wolfsburg have lost five of their previous six Bundesliga games.
However, the home side have won against their relegation rivals from the Ruhr Valley (2-0 against Werder Bremen). The visitors’ last three-pointer was eight matchdays ago (3:2 against Bayern).
Since then, VfL Bochum have found it extremely difficult and have gone three consecutive matches against direct rivals (Mainz, Darmstadt, Cologne) without a win.
VfL Wolfsburg are in a completely different weight class compared to the other teams in the table and should be able to prevail against two teams with poor form.
Wolfsburg (35.2 xG) and Bochum (36.7 xG) differ only slightly in attack, which is why my main focus is on the two defensive lines.
There, the Wolves (39.3 xGA) have a huge advantage over the visitors (54.9 xGA) and should therefore gain the necessary advantage over the course of the 90 minutes.
In contrast to his predecessor, Heiko Butscher relies much more on playful elements at VfL, but this plays into the hands of Lower Saxony. Wolfsburg prefer to operate against the ball and concentrate on simple and direct transitional moments
Quota analysis
One thing is immediately apparent when looking at the odds distribution: Neobet and its bookmaker comrades are more likely to expect a game with “Over 2.5 goals” with odds around 1.65.
I can’t provide any great arguments against this impression. The average number of goals conceded by the Butscher team already exceeds this value (2.64 goals conceded per game).
If you are brave enough to take risks, this Interwetten betting bonus for the odds of 3.05 on “Wolfsburg to score over 2.5 goals” is a nice reason to get your gambling heart pumping.
Otherwise, I would rather move on to the match combinations, which are much more attractive in my eyes.
If you combine my Wolfsburg Bochum tip on “Wolfsburg win” with the addition “Over 1.5 goals in the match”, betting odds of just under 2.00 are waiting for you
Chaos is the standard program at VfL Bochum
Under Thomas Letsch, VfL Bochum have endeavored to keep the structure of a game as chaotic as possible. As things stand, no Bundesliga team has a weaker passing percentage than VfL (76.9 percent).
The visitors’ low passing rate is largely due to their focus on long balls. Alongside the team in 15th place in the table (54.88), only one other team (Mainz) hit more than 50 long balls per game.
Recently, however, the chaos on the pitch has primarily worked against the visitors, which has led to a change of coach. Heiko Butscher is calling for more structure in the build-up, but that could be a problem against the Wolves.
Bochum are a team that have lost their confidence in the second half of the season. With the exception of Darmstadt (28), no other defense in the second half was more vulnerable than Butscher’s selection (25).
The Bochum system doesn’t work away from home
The vulnerability in the back line is evident throughout the entire match, at least away from home.
Heike Butscher travels to Wolfsburg with a team that has the fewest points away from home (7), the weakest defense (37 goals conceded) and the biggest deficit in the goal difference (-26).
The 54.9 goals conceded (15th) are a reflection of the sometimes catastrophic defensive performances. The rate of 71 percent of away games with “over 1.5 goals conceded” and 43 percent of guest appearances with at least three goals conceded also fits in with this.
The team’s own offense lacks the additional push from the fans away from home. Bochum were only able to score 32% of their goals away from home and completely failed to put a goal on the scoreboard in 43% of their away trips.
Wolfsburg, on the other hand, were able to score at least one goal in 93 percent of their home games and were able to show at least two rehearsed goal celebrations in half of the games on the pitch of the Volkswagen Arena.
The Wolves may still lack confidence in their own defensive strength here and there, but only 39.3 goals conceded actually shows that they could be one of the five best defenses in the league
VfL Wolfsburg have won all of their last four home games against Bochum, building up a fairly comfortable goal difference of 11:1 in the process.
If you pick up on this tendency in your bet and play “Win Wolfsburg with handicap -1”, you can win 2.90 times your stake in the best case scenario.
I wouldn’t advise against this completely. Bochum have lost two of their last three away games by at least two goals, even though their rivals (Gladbach, Mainz) are not exactly known for their consistency
In addition, the visitors lost their last away game against direct rivals Cologne. That further worsened their away record over the last seven games.
One factor in this whole issue is the vulnerability in the final quarter of an hour. On the last matchday, the team from the Ruhr area conceded their 15th goal in the final quarter of an hour against Heidenheim (1:1).
A late goal conceded also caused sheer horror in Cologne. Butscher’s charges now have one point from their previous seven away games
My Wolfsburg Bochum tip:
The difference in form between the two teams is minimal, but VfL Wolfsburg have the necessary quality in their squad to take advantage of Bochum’s weakness on the road.
You will definitely find the better defense in this pairing in the ranks of the Wolves, who bring enough potential to the pitch offensively to punish the weakest away defense in the league on several occasions.
As you may have noticed, the winless streak of eight home games in a row does not play a major role in my considerations.
My Wolfsburg Bochum tip: Win Wolfsburg!
