Bundesliga 25th matchday, Sunday, 09.03.2025 at 17:30
The visitors urgently need points! Heidenheim are in last place and, after gaining a point in Leipzig, suffered a heavy home defeat against Gladbach (0:3). Now it’s off to Sinsheim.
In my Hoffenheim Heidenheim betting tip, I’m expecting the next high-scoring match. Heidenheim will be going for an away win, while Christian Ilzer has stabilized his TSG and recently picked up seven points out of a possible nine.
It should be a turbulent game, so I’ve picked the “Over 2.5 goals” at Interwetten
3:1 against Werder, 1:1 against Stuttgart and a 1:0 against Bochum and the situation in the basement of the table looks much better for Hoffenheim. Before the start of the 25th matchday, the Kraichgauers have an eight-point lead over the relegation places.
The aim at home is not to let the gap get any smaller. The aim is to win against the bottom team in the Bundesliga. However, the visitors will throw everything into the game and recently played a good away match in Leipzig.
The oddsmakers’ forecast
Hoffenheim are on the upswing. The bookmakers have also realized this and have given the hosts odds of 1.77 as favourites. The odds are not clear, but Heidenheim are already at 4.30.
And even a draw could quadruple the stake if the bet wins. But I can’t find what I’m looking for in this market, as I can imagine a home win just as well as the “Double Chance X2” (2.05). It’s a 50/50 proposition for me!
AI prediction Hoffenheim v Heidenheim: ChatGPT
The AI has a different opinion, taking a determined approach to the home win for the hosts and adding the bet that both teams will score. One of three betting tips we received from ChatGPT for this match, this one carries “medium risk”.
Of the very high odds, the artificial intelligence finds the -2 handicap for Hoffenheim the best. With this option, TSG would have to win 3:0, 4:1 or 5:2. Results that I don’t want to rule out, but don’t think are realistic
I can well imagine that Heidenheim will play a very active role on Sunday evening, especially given their position in the table. It is also clear that Hoffenheim could live much better with a draw than the team in 18th place.
After two quieter Hoffenheim games, the AI suggests the “Under 3.5 goals” bet as a “low risk bet”. We don’t often get a 1.50 in this market, but I’m convinced of the opposite and expect a spectacular affair.
Analysis: Hoffenheim vs. Heidenheim
Because I’ve liked Heidenheim’s offense better recently. They could have scored a few goals against Gladbach. After all, the club created over 20 chances and also showed a really good first half against Leipzig.
Overall, however, the promoted team from the previous season conceded too many goals. Only in the 2-0 win against Union Berlin this year did they keep a clean sheet, which was two months ago, and in nine of the twelve matches they conceded at least one goal.
After 24 games, Heidenheim have conceded 50 goals, which is only bettered by Kiel. With 123 shots on goal, Frank Schmidt’s team also allowed the third most shots on goal.
Hoffenheim do not fare well in the defensive statistics either, with 46 balls conceded, they are also one of the league’s shooting galleries and have conceded a number of chances.
The difference is that TSG create the sixth most chances themselves.
Rating Analysis
In addition to the “Over 2.5 goals”, I have the goal of both teams at 1.60 odds. Since I want to hedge my bets for another 3:0, I’m going for the “Over 2.5 goals” in isolation this time, combined we’d get 1.96 odds.
This rich total odds would be something for the 100 euro free bet that we receive at Winamax after registration. There, the first deposit of up to 100 euros is doubled in free bet credit, the best sports betting bonus in my opinion.
And Heidenheim should find it convenient that TSG are missing a few players through injury. Anton Stach’s yellow card suspension now adds to the full team hospital. Meanwhile, Heidenheim will only be without Maximilian Breuning and Julian Niehues
Hoffenheim vs. Heidenheim: Hoffenheim still without a clean sheet at home
At least three goals in the game? TSG’s home record and Heidenheim’s away record speak for themselves. We’ve seen 46 goals and 45 assists, averaging 3.83 and 3.75 respectively. Hoffenheim are not a force in the PreZero Arena.
Just one in four games saw them keep all their points at home. In addition, only Kiel conceded more goals at home. Hoffenheim have already conceded 27 goals. Heidenheim have conceded just as many on their travels.
But watch out! FCH 1 scores twice as often away from home as they do at home. And Hoffenheim only very rarely have games without conceding a goal; like Heidenheim, they only had one clean sheet in 2025 and that was in their last game against Bochum.
That was away – and at home? There hasn’t been a single game in the league without conceding a goal! So the 1.40 for a Heidenheim goal on Sunday is definitely a must-bet for the combination players.
No goals in the first leg
At least in the first leg, both defensive lines were able to gain confidence, as it ended goalless, but a surprise given the 29 goals scored. We were offered more in the pre-season. A 3:2 for Hoffenheim was followed by a 1:1.
There have not been more competitive matches between the teams. In 2016, they faced each other for the first time in a test match, with Heidenheim coming out on top 5:4. Will they now get their first win in the league against an injury-hit Kraichgau side?
80 per cent of the Winamax community have added the home win to their betting slip. The selection is in the “Hot” category, making it one of the most frequently played odds for this match.
They are also all free of betting tax, leaving you with five percent more profit at Winamax. You also collect loyalty points over time, which you can exchange for free bets or cash credit.
My Hoffenheim Heidenheim tip:
This match should be really interesting, because we should see two teams playing for victory. The visitors in particular need a three-pointer to make a statement in the relegation battle. Hoffenheim’s mission at home against the bottom team is also clear.
However, TSG will have to make some compromises in terms of personnel, especially in defense. Heidenheim also came off much worse in the 3-0 defeat to Gladbach than the match actually was.
We’ve only seen a clean sheet for both teams so far, which leads me to the following bet:
My Hoffenheim Heidenheim tip: Over 2.5 goals.
