Juventus – Sporting Lisbon Tip Champions League, Matchday 4 on Tuesday, 11/04/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
Igor Tudor, now unemployed, will not understand the world. No sooner had he been dismissed by Juve than his former players celebrated two Serie A victories in a row without him.
Meanwhile, I have adjusted my Juventus Sporting Lisbon tip entered in the Interwetten app entirely to the expectations of our internal data model – and they are impressive!
The AI prediction expects a combined xG value of 2.55, which is the second highest of all Champions League matches on this fourth matchday.
And there could be something to that! The average number of goals scored by Juventus (4.33) and Sporting (3.67) in the first three UCL matchdays was well above the competition average.
The Lisbon club is even the only club within its national borders whose games average 3 goals per 90 minutes.
I’m reluctant to make a clear Juventus Sporting Lisbon prediction regarding the outcome of the game, but the statistics speak for themselves – and SCP fans who have traveled to the game are unlikely to be pleased.
Juventus is unbeaten in its four previous encounters with Sporting CP (2 wins, 2 draws).
In their last meeting in the 2022/23 Europa League season, the Italians prevailed in the quarterfinals – 2-1 on aggregate, thanks to a 1-0 win at home and a 1-1 draw in the second leg in Lisbon.
Juventus – Sporting Lisbon Prediction & Bets
1st goal: I can’t back up Sporting with facts, as the Portuguese conceded 0-1 in their last two Champions League appearances and didn’t score themselves.
Nevertheless, I think this attempt at Allianz Stadium should be attempted at odds of around 2.45. After all, Juve could have some teething problems in their first European Cup game under coach Luciano Spalletti.
First half: I also want to test over 1.5 goals at odds of around 2.70.
The entertaining style of play of both teams, as well as the greater offensive flow of the Bianconeri following the coach’s dismissal, encourage me to make this aggressive bet.
What you need to consider when betting on Juventus vs. Sporting
- Luciano Spalletti achieved 12 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses as Italy’s national coach (09/2023–06/2025).
- Sporting CP conceded only 0.10 xGA from set pieces in their first 3 CL games – only PSG, Bayern, Real Madrid, and Liverpool did better.
- Juventus won both home games against Sporting (2022/23 EL 1-0, 2017/18 CL 2-1), each by a one-goal margin.
- Luis Javier Suarez with 4.6 shots per 90 minutes – the highest rate of any player in the upcoming match, with only 3 ahead of him in the CL comparison.
- Juventus are winless in their last four CL games (2D, 2L) – their longest such run since 2013 (six games).
- Sporting have won 2 of their last 3 Champions League games (1D) – just one less than in their previous 14; they could win two in a row for the first time since Oct/Nov 2023.
Juventus – Sporting Lisbon: AI tip & odds analysis
Our Juventus Sporting Lisbon AI prediction is more confident than I am about a possible winner and recommends betting on a home win at odds of around 1.93.
Based purely on data and facts, I can’t disagree with my digital betting assistant.
Surprisingly, the Portuguese have won only one of their last 24 Champions League away games against a team from the top five European leagues (four draws, 19 losses).
Goal: According to the AI, Dusan Vlahovic seems to be a player bet at odds of around 2.10 that you shouldn’t miss out on. I can understand that in some respects.
Since his debut in the Champions League in February 2022, the Serbian has been involved in more than twice as many Champions League goals as any of his teammates (8 goals, 3 assists).
Incidentally, a goal within 15 minutes can be selected in the Betano app at odds of around 3.00, which in my opinion is absolutely dripping with value.
Surprisingly, the Bianconeri have scored within the first 10 minutes of four of their last five games.
The best odds for Juventus vs. Sporting Lisbon
If you bet on Juventus, the sports betting providers offer 1.95 – solid odds for a home game in which the Italians are slight favorites. The probability of this outcome is around 51 percent, just above the mark for a classic favorite bet.
A draw brings 3.50, which corresponds to an approximately 28 percent chance. This is realistic if you think that both teams will neutralize each other and the game will remain tactically tight – typical for this phase of the Champions League.
Sporting Lisbon stands at 3.80, which corresponds to a chance of victory of about 26 percent. Attractive odds for a team that can be dangerous away from home and is likely to challenge Juventus so soon after the change of coach.
The Juventus vs. Sporting Lisbon odds thus paint a fairly even picture, with a slight advantage for Juve.
Juventus vs. Sporting Lisbon match analysis:
This match between Juventus and Sporting CP has all the ingredients for a really intense game.
There is a lot at stake for both teams – Juve are currently only in 25th place and thus outside the playoff ranks, while Sporting are in a better position in 12th place but could slip significantly if they lose.
With Luciano Spalletti on the sidelines, Juventus are likely to be much more aggressive. His teams are known for their intense pressing, and with Juve averaging only 13.33 tackles per game in the Champions League so far, that number is likely to increase significantly.
Spalletti wants to breathe new life into the team, and that could be immediately noticeable in Turin. The Italians will try to apply pressure early on and disrupt Sporting’s build-up play.
But Sporting CP also wants to make an impact offensively and defend courageously up front. These aggressive approaches by both teams could open up space for counterattacks.
With players such as Francisco Trincao and Geovany Quenda, the Portuguese have nimble attackers who can cause problems for Juve’s defense. Spalletti, on the other hand, also relies on dangerous counterattacks.
So it could start with a wait-and-see approach, but as soon as both sides take risks, the game is likely to really pick up speed – with an open exchange of blows and plenty of excitement.
Juventus form check
Juventus’ start to the season under Igor Tudor looked really promising at first – three wins in a row, everything seemed to be going well.
But after a wild 4-3 win against Inter, things suddenly went downhill: the next five games all ended in draws, followed by three defeats in a row.
This was partly due to some really tough opponents, and partly due to a lack of initiative in their attacking play. It was only when Massimo Brambilla took over on an interim basis that Juve stopped their negative run with a clear 3-1 win over Udinese.
This game showed once again what the team is capable of: Juventus had an xG value of 3.17, while Udinese was hardly present offensively and only achieved 0.54 xG – despite scoring a consolation goal.
Juve therefore appear more stable defensively and more dangerous offensively. It remains to be seen what Spalletti can do with this squad, but miracles should not be expected just yet.
With some easier opponents coming up, the Bianconeri could finally get back on track – and then it will be exciting to see how quickly the Old Lady regains her rhythm.
Sporting Lisbon form check
Despite minor setbacks, Sporting is currently doing really well – both nationally and internationally. In the league, the Leoes are in second place, just three points behind Porto, and they are also doing well in the Champions League, sitting in twelfth place.
In their three Champions League games so far, they have won twice, only dropping points against Napoli. Coach Rui Borges will certainly draw his conclusions from that game, especially with regard to the clash with Juventus.
Interesting: The odds on the Old Lady are almost identical to those against Napoli – Sporting won the xG duel back then, but still lost 2-1.
However, the Portuguese side’s current form clearly speaks in their favor: after a 5-1 win against Alverca in the League Cup, Sporting are unbeaten in five games. Their offense in particular is running like clockwork – no team in Portugal scores more often.
With 2.6 goals per game and a total of 21.8 expected goals, the Leoes currently have the most dangerous attack in the league.
This combination of confidence, enthusiasm, and efficiency could also make the difference against Juventus – the chances are good that Sporting will come out on top this time.
