Bundesliga matchday 15, Saturday, 21.12.2024 at 15:30
The miserable feeling after a defeat haunted the KSV players for the eleventh time this season in the 1:4 in Gladbach.
There was no sign of a spirit of optimism at Kieler Förde and coach Marcel Rapp’s team have only rarely played at first division level this season.
After the previous defeat, the KSV coach chose clear words: “We deserved to lose, we got off to the worst possible start”. It was not the first time that conceding an early goal far too easily against the Foals ruined the match plan.
The sporting situation is critical with five points from 14 matchdays already played and there is actually nothing to suggest that the results will improve in the near future.
Therefore, I believe that FCA will score at least two goals in my Kiel Augsburg betting tip and I’m using the corresponding odds of 2.20 at LeoVegas.
The betting providers’ forecast?
A lot of things have to come together if a team with only five points collected on matchday 15 is still not the clear underdog.
However, in the eyes of the betting providers without taxes, the Storks can continue to hope and believe in their second win of the season with odds of up to 3.20 to win.
Although this is not quite as likely as an away win for the Fuggerstädter, which promises a 2.40-fold profit at the top, it is at least not far off.
The bookmakers are offering moderate odds of 3.40 for a draw, but I think a draw is more realistic than a home win.
KI prediction Kiel vs Augsburg: ChatGPT
I’m a little surprised by the preselection of bets that ChatGPT has spit out. According to the AI forecast, a low-risk bet should be a “Both teams to score” bet, which you can find at Oddset at odds of 1.70. I wouldn’t be quite so sure about this variant, as the Storks have only scored four home goals.
Funnily enough, the suggested variant for a medium-risk bet contains higher odds than the option which, according to the artificial intelligence, carries a high risk. If you take the odds from NEO.bet, you can expect a 6.10-fold profit if Philipp Tietz scores. In my opinion, this proposal contains a lot of value, as the FCA top scorer (5 goals) has scored three of the four away goals for his team.
As already mentioned, I am critical of a pairing with goals on both sides. However, ChatGPT suggests the match combination “draw & both teams score” at the end, which produces odds of 4.20 at Bwin, but is not eligible for my Bwin voucher.
Analysis: Kiel vs Augsburg
The weakest home offense (4 goals) receives the weakest away attack from Augsburg (4 goals). In principle, it can be assumed that not too many goals will be scored in this pairing.
However, many bookmakers offer exactly the same odds for “Over 2.5 goals” and “Under 2.5 goals”. In both cases, 1.85 times the odds are waiting for you.
My Kiel Augsburg tip may sound a bit exaggerated at first, but in my opinion it is definitely equipped with value odds. KSV goalkeeper Timon Weiner has let through the most balls so far (37 goals conceded) and has the second-lowest rate of balls kept out (56.5%) in the German top flight.
In addition, the 93 percent rate of league games in which the Storks have conceded “over 1.5 goals” jumps out at me.
Many careless mistakes in defense, a goalkeeper with miserable rates of kept balls and a team without self-confidence are therefore my recipe for an away game of the Fuggerstädter in which Augsburg scores over 1.5 goals.
Moreover, this would not be the first time this season. Only in the last Bundesliga away game did Augsburg celebrate two goals of their own in a 2-2 draw in Frankfurt.
Rating Analysis
Kiel have left fans in their own stadium without a goal celebration in 57 percent of their Bundesliga home games so far.
In addition, FCA have failed to score in half of their appearances as visitors, so the low odds of around 1.70 for “Both teams to score” came as quite a surprise to me.
However, looking at the odds of around 1.85 for “Over 2.5 goals”, the ratio is once again consistent. After five defeats in a row, however, I doubt that KSV will be able to end the calendar year on a positive note.
Augsburg haven’t looked too bad in recent weeks, losing only two out of seven matches and that against Bayern (0:3) and Leverkusen (0:2). A team like Augsburg should be given credit for that.
In the five remaining games, the Fuggerstädter celebrated two victories (against Dortmund and Bochum) and shared the points three times (against Frankfurt, Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg).
Kiel vs Augsburg odds: Top goal scorers in action
If the AI prediction already gives you such a steep lead, you have to utilize it. I’m talking about “Tietz scores” for odds of 6.10. You should actually keep an eye on that.
At 1.90 meters tall, Tietz is a powerful attacker who has scored five goals this season and loves to punish mistakes made by opposing defensive lines.
In addition, the 27-year-old boots to the spot should the Fuggerstädter be awarded a penalty. No Bundesliga team has conceded more of these than the Storks (4).
What’s more, Tietz has personally scored three of his team’s four away goals and has scored in three of their four previous away appearances.
When strengths become weaknesses
In the entire pre-season, the Storks only conceded 39 goals. The Bundesliga newcomers will probably already have this number in their account by the end of the first half of the season (currently 37 goals conceded).
KSV conceded the most goals in the league (37) and the second most expected goals (26.4 xGA). Obviously, the hosts have allowed almost eleven goals more than expected – an indication of the glaring weaknesses in defense.
Poor game sequences often lead to disastrous results this season. Marcel Rapp was not wrong to criticize the early goal conceded after 36 seconds in the last game against Gladbach (1:4). It was the eighth goal conceded in the opening quarter of an hour.
Being behind often opens up additional space for opposing teams to counterattack.
In addition, KSV’s penalty area resembles a fairground when the opposing team sets the ball up. There is too often a lack of order and too little rigorous defending. Only Wolfsburg (9) and Frankfurt (8) have conceded seven goals from a resting ball.
The Fuggerstädter are also far too familiar with a weak opening quarter of an hour. Like Kiel, FCA have conceded eight goals in the first 15 minutes of a Bundesliga match.
The absence of captain Jeffrey Gouweleeuw, who has been on the pitch every minute of the game so far but is suspended due to a yellow card, could also be critical for the visitors.
An interesting side fact: Kiel (5), together with St. Pauli (5), have conceded the most goals in the Bundesliga. Both promoted teams probably still need to work on the right transitional movement in defense.
Visiting coach Jess Thorup will be aware of this and will once again show his team the best possible routes into the opposition’s penalty area.
So far, FCA have only taken 30 per cent of their shots from outside the box (5th) and have always been disciplined in finding the better positions inside the penalty area.
My Kiel Augsburg tip:
KSV coach Marcel Rapp says he expects a physical duel in which both teams will want to use their power to succeed.
Augsburg have been a lot more ruthless this season and have an enforcer in Tietz, who has been reliable in recent weeks.
Neither the Storks’ defense nor their goalkeeper have performed at Bundesliga level in their Bundesliga games so far, so I believe the Fuggerstädter, who are weak away from home, can even secure their first Bundesliga away win of the season.
My Kiel Augsburg tip: Augsburg will score at least two goals
