Series A, Monday, 13.05.2024
Sometimes it’s right to go with your gut feeling and place a bet that, due to the special circumstances, could take a completely different course than can initially be assumed based solely on the available data …
That’s exactly the case with my Lecce Udinese tip that I’ve just written for you!
Because the famous spectre of relegation is currently haunting both stadiums and could motivate the visitors from Friuli Venezia Giulia in particular to start the game in a spirited manner, which the German bookmakers apparently don’t quite have on their radar
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!”. This quote, which I stole from a well-known mafia movie, fits like a glove to describe the relegation battle in the 2023/24 Serie A season.
Lecce are one of the many clubs who have taken a step forward in the fight to stay up, only to take another step backwards.
However, their recent run of positive results against Empoli (1-0), Sassuolo (3-0), Monza (1-1) and, most recently, Cagliari (1-1) seems to have almost certainly lifted them out of the danger zone, but only “almost”.
Udinese, on the other hand, are fighting for survival! The team is still below the line, but a win over the southern Italians this Monday and they will be above it again.
This starting situation alone makes this match worth following, even without the lucrative Sunmaker bonus as an encore
Having to play away from home is a disadvantage that the sports betting providers have given far too much weight to in my opinion.
The “Friulani” have proven several times this season that they feel much more comfortable away from home (17) than at home (13), where they have even accumulated four points fewer this season.
Udine are therefore one of the very few clubs who have been more successful away from home than at home and could therefore perform better than the sports betting providers currently assume. They have hung the role of favorites around the home side’s necks
If you were to wake me up at 4:00 a.m. and ask me for a quick Lecce Udinese tip, my first instinct would probably suggest a 1:1 draw.
But even if this game seems to be a draw-heavy one due to the perceived equality of the two clubs, a closer look at the data suggests that it is not.
In the last 15 Serie A meetings at the Stadio via del Mare, there has only been one draw. But eight wins for the home side and six for Udine
Personally, I don’t see any point in going down the conventional route and placing a 1X2 bet. Because none of these three scenarios really convince me.
Especially as the odds offered by the betting providers are very balanced. I would rather advise you to use a different strategy and pay more attention to the circumstances of this match than the data!
What could be worthwhile in my opinion to catch the sports betting providers off guard and cause them to pay out a hefty profit is to place a goal bet.
Fueled by the visitors’ need to win at all costs in order to leave the relegation zone, the game could pick up speed early on and escalate on the scoreboard after a goal in the opening quarter of an hour.
I’m thinking of a game in which both sides score and at least three goals are scored in total. Not too wild expectations, but for which the Betway app, for example, is prepared to offer great odds of around 2.65 in the event of success
I’m not convinced by a home win bet, which is why I don’t recommend it to you. But I have betting friends who are very much considering a home win bet on this pairing on Monday.
From a purely data-based perspective, I can’t blame them for this decision. Lecce have been riding a wave of success for some time now, having lost just one of their last seven Serie A games
Furthermore, Udinese are not known for their ability to cut a good figure in cellar duels.
Surprisingly, only bottom club Salernitana (9) have collected fewer points than Udine (13) from matches against clubs in the second half of the table on the matchday – and that’s after 15 such games this season!
Conclusion: You might think that a 1:0, 0:0 or 1:1 is the most likely outcome of this match.
And if you take a sober look at the data, I wouldn’t fundamentally disagree with that assumption …
But the special circumstances that will accompany this match on Monday at the Stadio via del Mare cannot simply be ignored.
Udine need a win at all costs and will therefore not be able to lie in wait as usual to launch sporadic counter-attacks.
According to my Lecce Udinese betting tip, it could get down to business early on and the goals could come flying in!
My tip: Both score & Over 2.5 goals
