Champions League, Tuesday, 11.03.2025 at 21:00
Do you have any idea how incredible the odds would have been if you had bet on both Bayern and Leverkusen to lose at the weekend? A real goldmine for risk-taking bettors!
Now, however, the “Werkself” face a truly mammoth project on Tuesday: in the second leg of the Champions League round of 16, they have to make up for a 0:3 loss from the first leg. An almost impossible task that even the greatest optimists find hard to believe.
Will there be a miracle after all, or will the record champions march mercilessly into the quarter-finals? In my Leverkusen Bayern prediction, I take a closer look at the whole thing for you!
Have they finally broken the Alonso spell? It’s been a long time since Bayern have beaten Leverkusen several times in one season.
However, following their 3-0 win in the first leg, Munich could now record multiple victories against the “Werkself” in a single season for the first time since the 2020/21 season.
This theory is at least supported by the fact that the “Werkself” will be missing Florian Wirtz and other key players in the second leg.
The bookmaker forecast
The bookmakers do not recognize a clear favorite within their just determined Leverkusen Bayern odds – a real top match at eye level!
After all, B04 is traded on the markets as a slight underdog at 2.80, while Bayern goes into the second leg as a mini-favorite at 2.45.
But a “remontada” of the goods class, which is necessary to prevent Bayern from reaching the quarter-finals after all? That’s unlikely to happen at the BayArena on Tuesday!
AI prediction Leverkusen vs Bayern: ChatGPT
The Leverkusen Bayern AI prediction from ChatGPT encourages you to place promising soccer bets. However, not all of the suggestions convince me!
For example, “Bayern win with handicap -1” is listed for the high risk. Especially after the 2:3 against Bochum, however, I no longer like this suggestion – too many question marks behind Munich’s current form.
For medium risk, the AI recommends “Over 3.5 goals”. This is a formidable tip, however, as the Werkself will be looking for an open exchange of blows early on. Goals should not be long in coming here!
Finally, “Double chance 1X” is a safe bet. After Munich’s clear 0:3 win in the first leg, I can well imagine that Bayern could also live with a narrow defeat.
Therefore, this Leverkusen Bayern betting tip in this form also convinces me very much of itself!
Analysis: Leverkusen vs Bayern
The fifth direct duel of the season between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich could mean the Champions League exit for Xabi Alonso, as the “Werkself” face a difficult task after the 0:3 defeat in the first leg.
Historically, only four teams in the UEFA Champions League have overturned a three-goal deficit from the first leg, making Leverkusen’s chances extremely slim.
After the 2-0 defeat to Werder Bremen and the injury to Florian Wirtz, the Rhinelanders’ immediate starting position ahead of the rematch is worrying anyway.
Bayern are also under pressure after a surprising 3-2 defeat to Bochum, which was marked by an early red card and VfL’s resulting overpayment.
With several key players rested in the first leg, Bayern go into the second leg fresh and aiming to reach the quarter-finals for the 35th time – only Real Madrid have done it more often.
But beware: Munich have already suffered two away defeats this season with a three-goal deficit.
Rating Analysis
“Over 2.5 goals” at 1.72 is a very solid bet in my eyes. Given the offensive power of both teams and their tendency to score a lot of goals, this is a realistic assessment.
“Bayern to score in both halves” is currently trading at odds of around 1.65 at any decent bookmaker with Apple Pay and is also a promising bet.
Bayern have scored in both halves in their last three games anyway, and given their current form and strong attacking play, that could be the case again in this match.
B04: Alonso rarely loses in back-to-back fashion!
Xabi Alonso is known for showing a strong reaction when it matters – and that also applies to the international stage. In his 33 games as a coach in European competitions, he has never conceded two defeats in a row.
That speaks volumes about his ability to get the team back on track.
Bayer Leverkusen are also doing extremely well at home in Europe: they have not lost their last 13 home games in European competitions (10 wins, 3 draws), winning nine of their last ten.
Leverkusen not without a chance without Wirtz!
The loss of Florian Wirtz will definitely hit B04 hard. Wirtz has created 25 chances from play in this UEFA Champions League season, which is an impressive achievement.
In the history of the competition since 2003/04, only Vinícius Júnior has created more chances in the 2021/22 season with 31 – despite Wirtz only being 21 years old.
He is undoubtedly one of the most creative players in the team, and his absence will pose a major challenge for Bayer Leverkusen’s attack.
Despite the absence of Florian Wirtz, Bayer Leverkusen are not without a chance – especially when you consider their recent record at the BayArena.
Under Xabi Alonso, Leverkusen have finished all three home games against Bayern Munich unbeaten, even winning two of them (1 draw).
By comparison, in the years prior to Alonso’s arrival, Leverkusen won only one of their last eight home games against Bayern (2 draws, 5 defeats).
That underlines Alonso’s strong record against the Munich side at home, which raises hopes of a good result – even without his key player.
However, despite all the optimism, Bayern – as already mentioned – deliberately rested several key players at the weekend.
Consequently, I don’t expect Leverkusen to pull off a comeback of biblical proportions on Tuesday. The record champions’ obstacles and reserves of strength are now simply too high for that!
My Leverkusen Bayern tip:
Leverkusen will have to do without several key players in their clash against Bayern, but the team is not completely without a chance.
The Werkself’s squad depth could allow them to come away with a draw or even a narrow 3-2 win in the end.
However, Bayern will not have to worry about their quarter-final ticket at any point, as a clear preliminary decision was already made in the first leg.
So my Leverkusen Bayern betting tip is: Double chance 1X & Both teams score
