Bundesliga matchday 15, Saturday, 21.12.2024 at 18:30
Do not let the day precede the evening! And so Uli Hoeneß could soon be caught up in the grandiose championship promise he made just under a month ago.
While the record champions have forgotten how to score goals without Harry Kane, Leverkusen have reduced the gap to Munich to just four points.
Meanwhile, I’m confident about my Leverkusen Freiburg prediction for the 15th Bundesliga matchday. However, it is also clear that even if the “Werkself” fail to beat the Black Forest side at home, the championship would still be far from decided.
Leverkusen, meanwhile, have found ways and means to keep the upper hand in important games even without Victor Boniface. And now they want to stalk even closer to the top of the table just before Christmas!
However, Freiburg are a club that the “Werkself” have beaten by just a single goal difference in both of their point games in their only championship season to date.
If I also look at how difficult B04 found it against the Fuggerstädter’s defense on the last matchday, Alonso’s team will be lucky if they can even score a goal against the defensively strong Black Forest side.
This is where my Leverkusen Freiburg betting tip tries to capitalize. Because on the betting markets, the prospect of a game with less than 3.5 total goals is mercilessly underestimated!
The betting providers’ forecast?
With an average of 1.38, the betting providers are fully backing the Rhinelanders with tax. I am also convinced that Leverkusen will get the three points – after all, they are in impressive form at the moment.
But I think these Leverkusen Freiburg odds are almost a little too optimistic, as if there is no chance at all for Sportclub.
However, with 5.00 for a draw and 7.75 for an away win, the Breisgauers have a little more to offer, at least statistically, than these figures suggest.
Freiburg should therefore not be written off completely, even if the role of favorite clearly goes to B04.
KI prediction Leverkusen vs Freiburg: This is what ChatGPT
The Leverkusen Freiburg AI prediction from ChatGPT for this match is interesting at first glance, at least some aspects of it.
Because a suggested 2:0 for Leverkusen is definitely conceivable. The team has shown a strong defense recently and has actually won three of its last four competitive matches without conceding a goal.
So the result fits, and the odds are also quite attractive at an average of 7.80.
In contrast, I’m far more skeptical about B04’s handicap win at -1. The odds of around 2.05 are too low for me, especially as B04 often got away with narrow victories against Freiburg last season.
Finally, as far as the over 2.5 goals are concerned, I also view this proposal with a great deal of suspicion. It could be a tough game in which it’s 0:0 for a long time.
Freiburg will set themselves up well defensively and I honestly don’t expect many goals. Leverkusen go into the game as favorites, but I would be a little more cautious with this betting option. This is certainly not a “safe” Leverkusen Freiburg betting tip.
Analysis: Leverkusen vs Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen have broken Augsburg’s strong home streak and made the race for the top of the table exciting again with an impressive seventh win in a row in all competitions.
Watch out: The gap to leaders Bayern Munich shrank from seven to just four points in this period.
Another highlight was the return of Patrik Schick, who played 20 minutes against FCA following his injury.
Coach Xabi Alonso also confirmed that Victor Boniface will return soon – the best conditions for an exciting battle for the 2024/25 Bundesliga title.
Alonso’s side have enjoyed an impressive run at home since the narrow 3-2 defeat to Leipzig at the end of August: eight wins in ten competitive matches (two draws). These include victories against Milan giants AC and Inter (1:0 each) and a 2:1 win against Frankfurt.
With this home strength behind them, Leverkusen are confident going into the top match against Freiburg, who they narrowly defeated twice last season. So has Hoeneß rejoiced too early over the championship title?
Freiburg should be a serious opponent, however. They scored in both Bundesliga duels with Leverkusen last season, even if it wasn’t enough in the end (2:3, 1:2).
Breisgau are currently brimming with confidence, having taken an early lead in three consecutive league games and taken seven points from them (2 wins, 1 draw). So we’re guaranteed an extremely thrilling clash!
Rating Analysis
I fully back my Leverkusen Freiburg prediction that fewer than four total goals will be scored at the BayArena on Saturday.
The associated under 3.5-goal odds are high enough for me, even at a value of around 1.50, to consciously take this risk.
However, the double chance 1X option is an “optional”. On its own, it promises odds of around 1.11 and therefore makes little sense, as Freiburg is simply not completely without a chance.
In combination with an over-3.5-goal bet – as in my case – this option makes a little more sense, as it creates combined odds of around 1.80.
For pure risk bettors, however, a draw bet would probably make much more sense here. Leverkusen will only win by a very narrow margin, if at all.
And should the game end in a points draw, you can expect a handsome win multiplier of around 5x.
Leverkusen vs Freiburg odds: Adverse circumstances!
SC Freiburg are a tough bunch, and Saturday evening doesn’t seem to be a lucky charm for Leverkusen either.
Freiburg have only allowed opponents to score 15.5 Expected Goals Against this Bundesliga season, with Leverkusen close behind at 16.1 – only Bayern Munich have a better xGA value (9.2).
Bayer 04 have also failed to win any of their last four top matches on Saturday evening – i.e. at 18:30 (3 draws, 1 defeat).
The Rhinelanders’ only home defeat in the last 48 Bundesliga games came against Leipzig (2:3 on matchday 2) in one of those top games. Pure coincidence?
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1:0 for B04 at the break?
From a purely statistical point of view, Leverkusen could actually be ahead before the break – especially if you look at the goal distribution.
Bayer 04 have scored 66% of their goals (21 out of 32) before the break in the current Bundesliga season, a figure only surpassed by Union Berlin with 69%.
Freiburg, on the other hand, are more of a late starter, with only 7 of their 20 goals (35%) coming in the first half – proportionally the weakest figure in the league.
An early goal for the Werkself therefore seems plausible, but a high-scoring game remains unlikely in my eyes.
Another decisive factor could be Florian Wirtz. His name must have been mentioned disproportionately often during the Black Forest’s team training sessions during the week.
After all, the Leverkusen playmaker is in top form and has always been directly involved in a goal in his last five Bundesliga games (2 goals, 3 assists).
He recently scored in two games in a row and his record against Freiburg is also impressive: he has been directly involved in three goals in the last two duels (2 goals, 1 assist).
Freiburg will therefore have to focus on him in particular if they are to take points from the BayArena.
For Freiburg, their current form speaks for itself: they are unbeaten in three Bundesliga games (2 wins, 1 draw), and with 7 points in this period, they are only behind Leverkusen (9 points).
However, their record against top teams is still in need of improvement: Breisgau have not won in 16 Bundesliga matches against the reigning champions (4 draws, 12 defeats).
And that’s probably why the bookmakers’ Leverkusen Freiburg odds are as one-sided as they are!
Incidentally, the last time the Breisgau side beat a top team was in 2015 against FC Bayern. So it remains exciting, but the statistics clearly speak in favor of the hosts.
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Every day until Christmas, there are exciting offers, exclusive bonuses and useful odds boosts – ideal for making your very own Leverkusen Freiburg betting tip more profitable.
My Leverkusen Freiburg betting tip:
Leverkusen welcome Freiburg on Saturday with the possible return of Patrick Schick in the starting line-up, which should give the offense a new boost.
However, Freiburg, known for their compact defense, will make it difficult for the Werkself to break through regularly. Given the visitors’ solid defense, I don’t expect Leverkusen to score more than two goals.
It will be an exciting duel in which the hosts will have to prove their offensive power to keep up with Bayern.
My Leverkusen Freiburg tip: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals
