Bundesliga Matchday 4, Sunday, 22.09.2024 at 15:30
There are matches in which the home team almost never wins. Crazy, isn’t it? Absolutely, and in my Leverkusen Wolfsburg betting tip, I want to tell you exactly what’s behind this peculiarity. For many supposed or actual connoisseurs, a shooting party is waiting in the wings here …
… but I’m taking a more cautious approach and betting on fewer than 3.5 goals. The Werkself were active in the Champions League during the week and returned home with a great success. They will now be looking to emulate that success in the Bundesliga.
For once, the German champions got away without conceding a goal, which VfL Wolfsburg probably didn’t like. In any case, I have to combine current and historical facts in this duel in order to come up with an accurate prediction.
Incidentally, the Leverkusen Wolfsburg odds are almost self-generated. The bookmakers are backing the defending champions all the way, giving you average odds of 1.30 to 8.50 – despite the oddity of home and away wins!
So there’s a lot to work through in my Leverkusen Wolfsburg prediction, because anyone betting on under 3.5 goals here will understandably have a number of good reasons to do so!
The oddsmakers’ prediction?
The Leverkusen win odds really don’t come as a surprise. If the Werkself win their second home game of the season, the odds will be a maximum of 1.35, which of course doesn’t read particularly profitable.
At the same time, Wolfsburg are considered to be the clear underdogs, although they certainly don’t have a bad record at the BayArena. If they pull off an absolute sensation, odds of 8.50 are due.
Two of the last four direct duels have ended without a winner. Not uninteresting, because the draw odds for the current match are way up. If you bet on a split of the points, you can look forward to a 5.60.
KI prediction Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg: ChatGPT
Admittedly, ChatGPT only really had to throw out pro-Leverkusen bets last season. Is that still the case when we ask the AI? At least it goes for an away win in a high risk betting option.
A Wolfsburg three-pointer? After all, they hadn’t lost seven times in a row before going 2-0 down last season. Nevertheless, this bet seems very risky to me, if you want to trust VfL, I would rather bet on a HC +2 at odds of 1.90.
A bet concerning a medium risk, on the other hand, looks quite different, based on a home win with a 0:2 handicap. In the event that Bayer wins with a three-goal difference, you would get a 3.00. Realistic? No, because it’s only happened once since 2011! So I would tend towards the 0:1 HC.
You have the lowest AI risk if you select the “Over 2.5 goals” bet. I’m betting on under 3.5, but that doesn’t rule out ChatGPT’s suggestion. Therefore: This bet has my okay.
Analysis: Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg
It was unusual, almost as if a director had manipulated the result on the scoreboard. In fact, Bayer Leverkusen really have already lost one game this season!
The double winners, who only lost in the Europa League final in 2023/24, were beaten 2:3 by RB Leipzig despite leading 2:0. We’re already in the middle of our analysis: squandered leads, goals conceded, all of that needs to be addressed
Bayer scrapped their way through on the first matchday in Mönchengladbach, squandering a 2-0 lead and somehow managing a 3-2 win thanks to a somewhat dubious penalty. Admittedly, they had imagined the first two rounds to be different.
However, Leverkusen struck back in the style of a champion and the 4:1 win against Hoffenheim was a fitting result. The defensive zero was to be kept for the first time in the Champions League.
Quotenanalyse
A close affair seems very realistic to me. Given that Leverkusen exhausted themselves in the Premier League during the week, I can well imagine that not much will happen in the first half. In the Betano app, it might therefore be advisable to bet on under 1.5 goals, which has odds of 1.70.
After Wirtz’s gala in Rotterdam, I also think there’s a good chance that the German international will score again. A goal from the super talent is rated at odds of up to 2.70 on Sunday.
If I had to decide on a result bet, my choice would be a 2-0 win for the home side – they already won that way in 2023/24. With odds of 7.90, you would be sufficiently rewarded here.
Leverkusen vs. Wolfsburg: Problems again for the visiting team?
At Feyenoord Rotterdam, the score was already 4-0 at the break, which was also the final score. Florian Wirtz scored the first two goals and now has four goals in five competitive matches.
But I have to say: four goals, five real shots on goal? The Werkself were highly efficient on the road, it wasn’t as if one great scoring chance followed the next. Will it now be correspondingly difficult to confirm this result against Wolfsburg?
Including the Super Cup, which went to a penalty shoot-out after a 2-2 draw against Stuttgart, it was the first time (excluding the cup tie against Jena) that they went through without conceding a goal.
Can Wolfsburg really spring a surprise?
The Alonso eleven, who will be without any injuries, know what to expect against the Wolves. Last season, the home game ended 2-0, but before that there hadn’t been a home win for a whole eight years, regardless of the side!
Nine of the last eleven duels, in line with my betting recommendation, could not offer more than three goals. Very interesting: The last time Leverkusen won a home game against Wolfsburg was no less than eleven years ago, in the first half of the season.
Bayer should be able to rely on their own offense, as they have netted in 18 league games. On the other hand, it should be noted that they have now always conceded goals in the first three games.
For the first time since FC Bayern in 2008/09, a German champion started with this value and we remember: Munich did not defend their title back then, because it surprisingly went to… Wolfsburg!
VfL will therefore travel to Leverkusen with confidence, at least historically speaking. The Wolves have started the new season with two defeats and one win, but the fixture list offers a number of cracking matches.
Bayern, Frankfurt, Leverkusen and Stuttgart – they have to face this quartet once in the first five rounds. 2:3 against FCB and 1:2 against Eintracht, the first two were already too strong once.
Both times it hit the back of the net in the 82nd minute, so the final phase is particularly vulnerable. Their only win came in a 2-0 victory against Kiel, but their opponents also had a few chances.
The fact that they are now up against the reigning German champions should not please Lower Saxony at all. The last time they won such a game was in January 2015, while we have to go back to December 2012 for away wins.
It’s also not often that VfL start a new season with two away wins in a row. Only in 2004/05 and 2021/22 has this been the case, so a defeat would be anything but surprising from this point of view.
My Leverkusen Wolfsburg tip:
Are things finally back on track for Bayer Leverkusen? After conceding a few goals and squandering leads, there was some doubt about their confidence, but the 4-0 win against Rotterdam spoke the language of the German champions.
As attentive Bundesliga fans will of course know, home wins against Wolfsburg are a thing of the past. The Werkself have been struggling for years, but on the other hand VfL can’t do much with top teams.
In any case, I don’t think either team will give us a complete spectacle on Sunday. Leverkusen have been active in the CL, and in recent years the home games against Wolfsburg haven’t produced that many goals for us either. My tip is therefore:
At 3.5 goals it’s over!
