Bundesliga Matchday 4, Sunday, 22.09.2024 at 19:30
Is it another one of those David vs Goliath duels? A promoted team from Hamburg with no points will host the team with the longest unbeaten run in our Bundesliga 1 tips on Sunday. In my St. Pauli RB Leipzig betting tip, everything revolves around the question of how the underdogs could pick up points here.
Is it easy for me to make a St. Pauli RB Leipzig prediction here? Not really, because the Kiezkicker’s actual home strength will certainly show through at some point. I’ve decided to place the combination bet of “Double chance X2” and “Under 3.5 goals”
The visitors from Leipzig only had to work hard in the premier class on Thursday and lost very unluckily, while St. Pauli, on the other hand, have yet to find their stride offensively this season. Of course, there are other statistics to back up my prediction.
Our St. Pauli RB Leipzig odds only allow the conclusion that the three points will not stay in the Hanseatic city. A 5.00 meets a 1.65, certainly also because the Saxons have been unbeaten for ages.
Ultimately, I will try to find out in my analysis what Pauli is still missing to finally arrive in the Oberhaus. And maybe an energetic performance will help them to get their first point!
The prediction of the bookmakers?
FC St. Pauli have started this season with three defeats, even though Heidenheim, Augsburg and Union Berlin were not overpowering opponents. So it’s only logical that the odds for a win against RB Leipzig have risen to 5.00.
The Bulls have not lost in 14 Bundesliga games and also like to play against promoted teams (more on this later). Their odds to win are therefore significantly lower, on average you can expect 1.65.
A draw would certainly be a success for the home side. If you want to take the risk of a draw bet, you will find odds of 4.00. After all, Hamburg have shared the points five times at home in 2023/24.
KI prediction St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig: This is what ChatGPT
A promoted team meets a Champions League participant – of course I asked ChatGPT which bets with the three different risk levels are recommended to me – and this time they are really interesting!
You have the high risk if you place the bet “St. Pauli wins with a goal difference”. Phew, not without, this bet! Since Pauli is still without a point and RB has been unbeaten for several months, I would probably advise against it.
I agree more with the medium risk. Here, the AI suggests a bet that St. Pauli will score the first goal of the match. I think it’s quite possible that the Kiezkickers will take the lead if they are whipped forward by their fans.
The bet of “both teams score” is also suggested to me. Admittedly, Hamburg haven’t really stood out offensively so far, but as RB have the bitter defeat against Atletico from the CL in their bones, I would also take this risk
Analysis: St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig
This is certainly not how FC St. Pauli had imagined their return to the top German league! The Hamburgers were delighted before the opener, as they had not been drawn to play the toughest of programs with Union Berlin, Augsburg and Heidenheim.
After losing all three of these games, one wonders how this team will cope against much stronger opponents: 0:2 against Heidenheim, 0:1 against Die Eisernen and 1:3 at FCA, little to nothing going on offensively
This is the first time that Pauli have started a season in League 1 with three defeats. 14 defeats and one draw – if we look at the last few games in the Bundesliga, of course across all seasons, you don’t even want to look anymore.
Of course, this also means that things can’t go well at home, where they have currently lost six games in a row. The history doesn’t help the Paulians much, of course, and they have to see how they can get out of their current predicament.
Quotenanalyse
Unfortunately, St. Pauli aren’t putting much on the pitch in attack. At the same time, I can imagine that RB will struggle to get going due to the international load. So for me, the bet “Under 1.5 goals in the first half”, which gives you odds of 1.55 in the Betano app, is worthwhile
A 0:0 at the break would be even more risky. This has happened twice this season for Hamburg and once for RB. The odds are doing a real set here, you can reward yourself with an average of 3.30.
Maybe you’ll manage to predict the correct final result in this pairing. I could well imagine an unadorned 1:0 for the visitors, who have already scored just once on aggregate against Bochum and Union.
St. Pauli vs. RB Leipzig: Will the newly promoted team catch up?
Of course, a look back at last season, when they only lost once in mid-February, is no longer helpful, because the opponents have now become much more demanding.
They lost just once in their own stadium – Hamburg will probably not be able to boast such statistics in the top flight. Not everything has gone smoothly in terms of personnel in recent days either.
Morgen Guilavogui is injured, but Elias Saad, who set up his team’s first goal in Augsburg, could be in the starting eleven. What will give the fans cause for optimism, perhaps a look at the direct comparison?
How will RB react to the CL defeat?
Admittedly, the two have only played each other four times and haven’t met since 2016, but St. Pauli have won all of their last three games 1-0!
Far-fetched, I know, but if you still want to take the risk of a 1-0 win for the hosts, MerkurBets has odds of 14.5 and you can also redeem the MerkurBets betting bonus.
By the way: The two teams will face each other again in October, this time in Leipzig, in the second round of the DFB Cup. Only two wins count for the Saxons, and they are clearly favored both times.
After a bitter evening in Madrid, it could well be that one or two players are still feeling pretty dejected. RB led against Atletico, but then conceded the bitter 1-2 in the 90th minute.
International was lost, something Leipzig have not done in the Bundesliga for a long time. They have now been undefeated for 14 games, a longer streak than any other team.
But at the same time, no one has had a clean sheet in away games for so long! The last time they scored a clean sheet was in September 2013.
After all, St. Pauli have the weakest shooting accuracy of all teams (just 33%), and four great chances do not suggest that the RB defense will have a hard time this weekend.
The visitors from Saxony are particularly fond of promoted teams because: In the 1st Bundesliga, RB have NEVER lost to a team that was in the second tier the season before! Leipzig even won 29 of their 32 games.
My St. Pauli RB Leipzig tip:
Admittedly, the encounter between St. Pauli and RB Leipzig could hardly be more different. The Bulls have been unbeaten for ages and almost always win against promoted teams. For that reason alone, I’m already betting on “double chance X2”.
The big question now is: will we see many or few goals? I actually expect very little from the home side offensively, as they have scored once. For RB, the premier class could be a deciding factor.
That means: I’m not assuming that we’ll be able to witness a shooting festival. That’s why I’m sticking with “double chance X2” and limiting my betting tip as follows:
Leipzig score, we see a maximum of three goals!
