Lithuania – Poland Tip World Cup Qualifier, Group G, Matchday 6, 10/12/2025 at 8:45 p.m.
I don’t see the still winless Balts at the 2026 World Cup, but the Poles also strike me as a bit of a wild card in this regard.
No German betting provider is counting on it, but you’ll hear it from me: a Lithuania Poland tip on the visitors could come to nothing on Sunday.
That’s because the Poles don’t strike me as particularly solid – and despite home advantage, they only narrowly won the first leg.
Consequently, I can well imagine that the underdog, who is mercilessly underestimated on the betting markets, will once again put up a brave fight within its own borders.
Lithuania vs. Poland AI predictions:
I know: Our Lithuania Poland AI prediction is daring to recommend a straight home win bet.
The odds of around 8.00 certainly speak in favor of this risk if successful. On the other hand, the fact that the Balts have been waiting for a win for 14 international games in a row speaks against it.
However, I ultimately tend to accept this bet rather than reject it. The recent 2-3 home game against Holland showed signs that this team is developing positively.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Lithuania win |
Draw |
Poland win |
| 11.9% |
22.6% |
65.5% |
Both teams to score Lithuania Poland Odds of around 2.32, on the other hand, are considered somewhat inflated on the betting markets – time to strike!
Especially since this condition has been met in each of the Baltic team’s last five home games. With their home crowd behind them, they simply tend to engage in an open exchange of blows without regard for the consequences.
The aforementioned 2-3 defeat to the Netherlands and the previous 2-2 draw with Finland also suggest that there could be plenty of action at the S. Dariaus and S. Gireno Stadium this time around.
Last but not least, we have to talk about the third computer-generated suggestion: Double chance 1X.
With Lithuania Poland odds averaging 2.77 at Interwetten Germany, this is definitely a betting maneuver that is worth considering.
Even if your gut feeling contradicts this selection, the risk-reward ratio is definitely right for me to classify it as a value bet.
What you need to consider when betting on Lithuania vs. Poland
- Poland’s xG value in the first leg was 1.73 despite the narrow 1-0 victory.
- The away team has never won in this fixture in six international matches so far – the home team has won five times.
- There have been over 2.5 goals & BTS in each of Lithuania’s last 5 home international matches.
- Poland has not won in 4 away international matches (1 draw, 3 losses).
