Champions League, Tuesday, 11.03.2025 at 21:00
It’s one of those duels that we would have liked to have seen in the semi-finals! However, my Liverpool PSG betting tip is “only” about the question of who will reach the round of the top eight. The Reds go into the game at Anfield with a narrow 1-0 lead and will naturally be relying on home support.
Did the English side deserve their late victory in Paris? Certainly not, but of course they didn’t care in the end. I’m therefore assuming that the second leg won’t be a wild spectacle either, but that concrete will be mixed first, especially with red
That’s why I’ve decided to bet on “Under 3.5 goals”. The guests must have asked around and know: Traveling to the island? They’re not exactly popular with French teams. What’s more, PSG like to fail in the round of 16.
In this respect, everything may be open on paper, but ultimately I don’t expect Liverpool to be eliminated. I’ll tell you straight away that the odds for progression are not profitable at 1.30.
It is therefore obvious who will be considered the favorite here on Tuesday. But since it’s a knockout game and even an inferior team can quickly take the lead, Anfield is unlikely to be boring.
The bookmaker forecast
Liverpool no longer have to win, which has of course been factored into the odds. If you still want to bet on a win for the Reds, you will be offered average odds of 2.20.
The odds don’t climb that much higher for the French, with 2.85 being offered. Should they win by one goal, the game would go straight into extra time.
In the event of a draw, the home side will be celebrating, as the first leg almost ended without a winner. The odds for a draw are 4.00. Perhaps because Liverpool haven’t drawn at all in this CL season and PSG have only drawn once?
AI prediction Liverpool vs PSG: ChatGPT
What do I think of the ChatGPT suggestions this time, could the AI give me sensible starting points for the game? Let me put it this way: Some things make sense, others less so.
The tip with a high risk refers to the 2:1 result. Not unrealistic, but I actually believe in even fewer goals. So if the result bet and home win tip are combined, I would go for 1:0.
The “Over 3.5 goals” tip also makes it into the AI portfolio. I have to disagree here, if only because I’m suggesting the exact opposite. LFC have played six times to nil and can stonewall at will, so I simply don’t think a spectacle is realistic.
The “both teams score” should often be a foregone conclusion between these two offensively strong teams, this time too? I can imagine a 0:0 in itself, but also a 1:1, so the only conclusion I can give you is this: Too much can happen here for me to be pinned down to one goal from either team.
Analysis: Liverpool vs PSG
It was one of those games that you can’t actually win and end up winning for that very reason! Liverpool FC faced one attack after another in Paris, but an outstanding Alisson kept everything out of his box.
Substitute Harvey Elliott scored the winner in the 87th minute, the only real shot on goal for a team that failed to complete 300 passes and did not even manage 30% possession.
After a very impressive group stage, the often uninspiring performance was quite surprising. The Reds had won seven of their eight matches in the preliminary round, and everything was already clear when they lost 3-2 to Eindhoven.
The fact that they won the first leg is extremely good news for the Reds. For the past 14 knockout rounds, they have always progressed when that has been the case. When was the last time that didn’t work? In 2001/02, when Bayer Leverkusen, the eventual finalists, caused a sensation.
Rating Analysis
It is anything but easy to correctly assess a game in which Liverpool take a 1-0 lead. I’ll leave out the 2:3 against PSV in the previous round, as the Reds were already well advanced. In this respect, I only recognize one goal conceded before the break.
As the French side have also gone six CL games without conceding a goal in the first half, a 0-0 draw after the first 45 minutes seems likely to me. At Bet365, the corresponding odds are 3.50, plus the option to benefit from betting credits.
Twice 0-0 and twice 1-0 are the half-time scores from Anfield so far. You can of course also bet on “Under 1.5 goals in half one”, with Betano this would still come to odds of 1.60.
Liverpool vs PSG odds: Will Liverpool defend their lead?
Liverpool have everything under control in the Premier League anyway, leading the field with superiority. The team conceded one goal in the Premier League at Anfield, so defensively there is not much to complain about.
While Mo Salah shoots everything short and small in the Premier League and is the absolute life insurance, it’s a different story in the Champions League, where the responsibility is much more evenly distributed.
There are already four players with three goals, Salah is of course among them. I have to mention Harvey Elliot again here, because he has scored consistently for three games now.
If you trust him to score the next goal at Bet365, the odds, as he often only comes off the bench, land at a profitable 5.00. Incidentally, Liverpool last welcomed the Parisians to Anfield in September 2018.
PSG with anger in their stomachs?
They won 3:2 in the group stage, scoring the decisive goal in injury time. They don’t even have to win on Tuesday, although Arne Slot would be the first coach of an English team to win their first five home games in the Champions League.
Paris St. Germain were naturally furious after the final whistle in the first leg, as a win would have been more than deserved. Now the star-studded side must be careful not to be eliminated in the round of 16 for the sixth time since 2017.
The last 15 appearances by French teams on the island have all been non-winners. PSG themselves are among them, having lost 2-0 to Arsenal in the group stage.
PSG only got into their stride late in the preliminary round, but with three wins and eleven goals, the final spurt was a success. There were no problems at all in the intermediate round against Brest, with Dembele and Co. pulling away 3-0 and 7-0.
21 goals from the five games in question, making it all the more astonishing that none of the 27 shots in the first leg against Liverpool were on target. Dembele, who has netted 15 times in the last ten league games alone, was also unsuccessful.
In the top flight, he has scored six goals, five of them away from home. Should he be a candidate for your goal bet, this courage will be rewarded with odds of 2.87 at Bet365.
My Liverpool PSG tip:
Will Liverpool FC defend their narrow lead against Paris? The Reds won the first leg by the skin of their teeth, with their only real chance going wide. But they prefer to play at home anyway, and the pressure is no longer on their side.
Paris were suitably disappointed after the defeat, but this anger must now be turned into energy. So while the visitors have to come, Liverpool can take a relaxed view of everything.
Since the Reds defend well, especially in the Champions League, and Anfield Road is their fortress, I can’t imagine that we’ll see a wild game. That’s why I’ve decided on the following tip:
Three goals maximum!
