Bundesliga 19th matchday, Saturday, 01/25/2025 at 3:30 PM
Jonathan Burkardt will not be part of the team for the next league game for Mainz against Stuttgart. The visitors have come out of the winter break with three Bundesliga wins and, after another Champions League victory over Bratislava, still have a chance of reaching the play-offs.
And in contrast to the Mainz striker, Stuttgart’s top striker is fit again and can now play from the start. Sebastian Hoeneß’ team is currently looking really good in both offense and defense.
That’s why I’m combining the double chance X2 with the bet that Stuttgart will score at least one goal for my Mainz VfB Stuttgart tip at NEO.bet.
This will be a really tough Saturday afternoon for the nil-fivers, who have lost the last two games. Burkardt had to come off injured early on in Leverkusen, after a good fight it was a deserved 1-0 win for the Werkself in the end.
Mainz also came away empty-handed in the away game against Union Berlin. Steffen Baumgart’s first win with his Irons came about because Mainz didn’t show enough in attack; as against Leverkusen, the team rarely got dangerously in front of the opposing goal.
The betting providers’ prediction
The odds for the match in the top sports betting apps are not far apart. The guests, who have won all four games in the new year, are just ahead with 2.40 before the kick-off, for Mainz we get 2.84.
The draw is in the mid-triple range. I can’t imagine a home win without Burkardt and after two consecutive defeats. At the same time, Stuttgart’s away win is also too precarious for me after the trip to Bratislava.
So it’s a good thing there’s still the double chance X2…
ChatGPT’s prediction for Mainz vs. VfB Stuttgart: That’s what ChatGPT predicts
And how does the AI rate the duel? The odds suggested by ChatGPT also point towards a Swabian win. Only with the low-risk variant does the artificial intelligence deviate and has the classic “Over 2.5 goals” on the radar.
Depending on the provider, we get odds around 1.70 for this market. Especially the Stuttgart games have been tough in terms of goals recently, which is why I definitely find the bet interesting.
ChatGPT sees medium risk in the bet that the guests will score a double. There we are already moving beyond the 2.00 mark, I like the option even better than the Over 2.5 goals variant, since the 2:0 for Stuttgart is also covered.
I would definitely not rule out a clean sheet. After all, Stuttgart has only conceded two goals in four games in 2025 and Mainz often struggles to score without Burkhardt.
The AI can also imagine that it will be a very close victory, and finds VfB’s success with exactly one goal in the higher odds region attractive.
Analysis: Mainz vs. VfB Stuttgart
10:2, a nice goal difference after four matches in 2025 for Stuttgart. Thanks to the perfect start, Stuttgart has now moved back into a Champions League place, ranking fourth before the 19th matchday.
None of their opponents have managed to create double-digit chances, with a 1-0 win over Augsburg followed by a 2-1 win over Leipzig, a 4-0 win over Freiburg and a 3-1 win over Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League.
The form is right and with Undav, the most important striker is back. Nevertheless, I assume that Hoeneß will not put him on the pitch for 90 minutes against Mainz and will also manage the playing time of other key players.
After all, the next European adventure begins next Wednesday. PSG is the guest and Stuttgart, as the 24th, urgently needs to score points in order to be able to compete in the next round. A factor that plays into Mainz’s hands.
Odds analysis
In the current form, however, I am sure that Stuttgart will not go empty-handed against Mainz, at least not between the Champions League games. Especially since Nick Woltemade has emerged as a strong attacking alternative in a few games.
In terms of minutes per goal, he is even better than the Champions League seeded players Ermedin Demirovic and Undav. However, the former Bremen player is not part of the squad for international business.
Depending on the line-up, I would definitely keep an eye on Stuttgart’s goal-scoring odds after their numerous goals in recent games, after all, we are talking about seven goals in the last two matches.
Undav and Demirovic are leading the list at Betano with 2.87 each, strong odds! If both are in the starting lineup, two single bets make sense here.
Not only the current form, but also the other offensive numbers suggest that Stuttgart will push at least one ball over the line on Saturday. After all, VfB has played its way to the fourth-most with its 353 completions.
Only Bayern, Leverkusen and Frankfurt have tried it more often.
Incidentally, Mainz is only in 17th place in this ranking, having had almost 100 fewer opportunities and being outranked only by newly promoted Kiel.
Mainz still without Jenz, Stuttgart without Millot
The injury-enforced absence of Moritz Jenz doesn’t make it any easier to keep Stuttgart out of their own box.
Stuttgart will be especially missing Enzo Millot, who received his fifth yellow card against Freiburg.
In the offense, winter newcomer Jacob Bruun Larsen has already made a good contribution, scoring the equalizer against Leipzig. He could also be an important relief player for the Champions League players on Saturday.
Mainz and Stuttgart have faced each other 37 times. The record is quite even. Stuttgart won 16 times, Mainz only four, with nine draws.
The first leg was a tough one. Stuttgart initially conceded after a 2-0 lead, took the lead again in the 88th minute, only to let the three points slip through their fingers again a few minutes later. We saw 39 shots!
Last season, the runner-up won both games 3-1. Both teams scored five times in a row. However, without Burkardt, a corresponding bet is too hot for me.
My Mainz VfB Stuttgart betting tip:
In any case, Mainz can prepare for the game better than Stuttgart. After all, this match is taking place in a Champions League sandwich for the guests. On Wednesday, VfB will be fighting to stay in the most important competition.
In their current form and thanks to the good alternatives with Woltemade and Bruun Larsen, I believe Stuttgart can at least get a point against Mainz between the games in the premier league without Burkardt.
Besides, we are not talking about a complete changeover for the Swabians, but only about various minutes on the pitch that the key players might not be on.
Double chance X2 & Stuttgart scores
