Allsvenskan matchday 17, Tuesday, 28.05.2024
Three of the past four Swedish championships have not gone past Malmö. After eleven matchdays, the Sky Blues are once again enthroned at the top of the table and dominate their rivals at will.
Elfsborg are already 12 points behind the league leaders. This is primarily due to their poor performance away from home, which I also refer to in my Malmö Elfsborg betting tip. Today I’m playing odds of 2.55 for “Malmö win without conceding a goal” at Bwin
Malmö have dominated Swedish club soccer for years, winning three of the last four titles and a total of 23 championships.
The year 2024 has started incredibly well for the Himmbelblauen once again. Nine wins from their first eleven league games have taken the hosts to their favorite place in the standings – the top of the table.
At home, the league leaders are also considered big favorites by the German bookmakers with odds of up to 1.42, while Elfsborg have settled at average odds of over 7.00.
The home win rate in this head-to-head clash has skyrocketed in recent years, reaching almost 70 percent (9/13) over the previous 13 matches.
That puts into perspective any concerns about a surprise win for the visitors, who have won three of the last four meetings – all at home, of course.
So far this season, however, the two teams have played at completely different levels. Malmö have the best attack (30 goals) and the best defense (6 goals conceded). Elfsborg have a solid 20 goals to their name, but also have major problems at the back (17 goals conceded)
Once “Di Gule” leave home, they can hardly be compared to the team from the home games. Elfsborg have collected just three points away from home and lost four out of five games.
In five guest appearances, Jimmy Thelin (in office since 01.01.2018) was only offered a meagre four goals by his team. Goals conceded, on the other hand, were plentiful (11).
Therefore, if you don’t expect Elfsburg to score, you have the opportunity to place a free bet without deposit at risk-free odds of 2.15.
The six-time Swedish champions won their first away game of the season, but then lost four away games in a row.
Three of the four defeats were by at least two goals to one in the Allsvenskan history books.
So I’m not averse to the question of a “Malmö win with a -1 handicap” bet
Elfsborg’s weakness on the road would be reason enough for my Malmö Elfsborg betting tip. However, the strongest argument is still missing.
Malmö has clearly outgrown the national league in home games. After five home games, the league leaders have an unblemished record of five wins and 14:0 goals!
Yes, that’s right: Malmö have won every home game so far without conceding a goal and literally exploded on the last matchday against Kalmar (5-0 win).
Kiese Thelin (8 goals this season) and Botheim (8 goals this season) scored four out of five goals in the last home game and were the guarantors for the ninth win of the season.
If the two attackers of the 23-time Swedish champions put on another display, odds of around 2.25 for “Malmö over 2.5 goals” are a “must-bet”
Four consecutive away defeats have taken their toll on Jimmy Thelin’s squad. Almost as critical are the recent two out of four goalless away runs.
The weakness away from home has left a hole in the seventh-placed team in the table in terms of expected goals (15.5 xG), which puts them far behind the best expected offense from Malmö (21.9 xG).
A quick look at the expected goals conceded is enough to understand why I prefer to place my Malmö Elfsborg bet on a win for the home side rather than a handicap victory for the league leaders.
As expected, the Sky Blues also lead this category (8.7 xGA), but Elfsborg are hot on their heels with only 11.4 goals conceded.
The visitors are adept at stopping their rivals’ play, even if they commit the most fouls per game (14.3).
Malmö can justifiably be called the best team in Swedish club soccer and have won every home game so far this season without conceding a goal (14-0).
It has been a completely different story for Elfsborg on the road, where they have lost all but one game (5 games, 1 win, 4 defeats).
My Malmö Elfsborg betting tip is: Malmö win without conceding a goal
