Manchester City – Dortmund Tip Champions League, Matchday 4 on Wednesday, 05.11.2025 at 9:00 p.m.
“Pep is back!” – because his Citizens are twice as successful and hungry in the Champions League and the Premier League as they were last season.
According to my Manchester City Dortmund tip, which has been put to the test by an excellent sports betting provider, his boys will still not manage to completely neutralize the second-strongest offense in the Champions League with 12 goals on Thursday.
Nevertheless, the home side will score at least one more goal than BVB, thanks in no small part to Erling Haaland. After all, each of their last three Champions League victories over the Black and Yellows ended in a 2-1 win.
All eyes will be on the Norwegian on Wednesday, of course – no wonder. Will Haaland make history against his former club?
Erling Haaland could become the first player to score in five consecutive Champions League games for three different teams.
He previously achieved this for RB Salzburg (November 2019, five games) and Borussia Dortmund (March 2021, six games). Haaland has scored a total of six goals in his last four appearances for the Citizens.
Manchester City – Dortmund Prediction & Betting
Will he celebrate, or will he bow his head in respect? Haaland scoring against his former club at odds of 1.50 on average is, in my opinion, a very hot Manchester City BVB tip.
Even against the suggestion of Haaland: 2+ goals, I have no objections – especially not at the extremely attractive odds of 3.20 currently available on the Interwetten app.
Meanwhile, a ManCity win & Haaland to score promises combined odds of 11.75 – and as you can see, just as all roads lead to Rome, for me all roads lead to a goal bet on the Norwegian.
What you need to consider when betting on Manchester City vs. Dortmund
- Two Premier League clubs, Manchester City and Arsenal, have conceded the fewest shots on goal (6) in this Champions League season.
- In Borussia Dortmund’s first three Champions League games of the 2025/26 season, eight goals were scored in the 75th minute or later.
- The goal rate for Erling Haaland (1.53/-189) implies a 65.4% probability that the City striker will score against his former club Dortmund.
- In the clash between Erling Haaland’s former and current clubs, the Norwegian is likely to decide the game.
- Haaland could become the first player to score in five consecutive Champions League games for three different clubs if he scores against Dortmund.
Manchester City – Dortmund: AI tip & odds analysis
Our Manchester City Dortmund AI prediction anticipates a high-scoring game at the Etihad Stadium, as it actually advises me to bet on over 5.5 goals at odds of around 5.90.
At first, I felt some internal resistance—but on closer inspection, the idea is not so far-fetched when you consider that Borussia has scored four goals in each of its last three Champions League games.
Consequently, you can imagine that if the AI expects six goals, the option “Both teams to score” at odds of around 1.62 is also recommended – but primarily for risk-averse betting enthusiasts.
2nd half: Most goals at odds of around 1.90, on the other hand, is a logical conclusion from the available data and also a good betting suggestion.
Surprisingly, 16 of the 19 Champions League goals this season were scored after the half-time break. That can’t be a coincidence!
The best odds for Manchester City vs. Dortmund
Let’s take a look at the betting markets together to see what the Manchester City Dortmund odds are and what the bookies think about this blockbuster match. The numbers paint a pretty clear picture.
A Manchester City win is trading at 1.44, which corresponds to a probability of around 69 percent. The bookmakers clearly favor the English side – no wonder, given the Skyblues’ form and home strength.
A draw is at 5.25, giving it around a 19 percent chance. This is a possible scenario if Dortmund plays smart defensively and doesn’t let the Citizens get fully into the game.
Dortmund itself is at 6.00 for an away win, which means only about a 16 percent chance of happening.
The bookies aren’t seriously expecting a surprise coup here, but the odds are definitely exciting for anyone looking to bet on value.
Man City vs BVB Match Analysis:
Manchester City will go into this game with enormous confidence, bolstered by the fact that they are unbeaten in 22 consecutive Champions League home games.
Their game will be based on possession, control, and quick combinations to put pressure on their opponents early on.
Nevertheless, the English side should be extremely vigilant, as Borussia Dortmund are known for their efficiency.
The Black and Yellows need only a few chances to be dangerous – and that is precisely where the danger lies. Erling Haaland must deliver up front, otherwise Dortmund could strike coldly in return.
Statistically speaking, the danger of a BVB goal is real: Dortmund have already scored 12 goals in this Champions League season, even though their expected xG value was only 4.5.
Over the first three matchdays, they have the largest positive differential compared to their xG value (+7.5) and the highest shot conversion rate (37.5%) of any team, which shows how efficiently they convert chances into goals.
Overall, you can expect a game in which City will generate a lot of possession and pressure, while Dortmund will focus on efficiency and counterattacking – so excitement is guaranteed.
Manchester City form check
The Citizens have done almost everything right in the Champions League so far, with only the 2-2 draw against Monaco on matchday two marring their perfect points tally.
Since then, the team has channeled its disappointment and won five of its last six competitive games, including a 3-1 home win against Bournemouth in the Premier League.
Historically, as already mentioned, they are unbeaten in 22 home games in the UCL main round (19 wins, 3 draws). That gives them extra confidence.
The two extra days of rest compared to Dortmund could provide the decisive advantage to once again underline their home strength, especially with Rodri back from injury and providing stability in midfield.
City’s versatile attack with Haaland and Foden promises to put pressure on Dortmund’s defense, which has already shown some weaknesses in the Bundesliga.
Dortmund form check
Dortmund travels to the northwest of England after a 1-0 away win in Augsburg, although their Bundesliga season has been rather mixed behind the all-powerful Bayern.
Internationally, however, they are showing their strength: six wins, three draws, and only one defeat from their last ten UCL games underline their quality.
Offensively, they have already scored four goals in every game in this phase of the league, including two away goals, showing their high scoring power.
Nico Schlotterbeck could be available again after illness, which will give the defense stability.
Despite their underdog status, Dortmund are difficult to underestimate, as their quick counterattacks and variable offensive actions can pose a real problem for City’s defense, especially from set pieces.
